with a teabagger friend of mine, (they are so much fun to debate), and I was struck by a statement he made in response to some comments of mine talking about Germany:
You say the Germans don’t mind paying high taxes? Well, they also didn’t mind being responsible for murdering 6 million jews a few decades ago…but who’s counting, right?
All one can do is laugh. It did also make me wonder how many people actually identify with the tea party. Polling has been varied, but there was that ridiculous Siena poll in NY-23 that showed 45% of that district was pro tea party.
I’ve actually been wondering something myself; what did happen to Vermont to send it so radically and utterly into the liberal corner of the political spectrum? I mean just back in the 1990s it was a relatively swingish state on a local level, and national Republicans could usually get over 40% there. I mean whatever happened there hasn’t happened in NY-23 yet, or in New Hampshire, and not quite in Maine. But I would say it is a sort of example of what very might well happen all the way from Central NY, through the Hudson valley, through non anti-Tax Massachusetts suburbs New Hampshire, and through Maine.
1696 likely voters, 3% margin of error.
Survey USA/KAAL TV
Walz (D) 47
Demmer (R) 42
Wilson (IP) 4
Johnson (I) 2
Undecided 5
No Link yet.
Well, I’m bored of wait poll results from Vermont but not, this week I will not include the races from Vermont (what still are very interesting).
I’m interested in know about the next races:
MA-10 W Keating
PA-17 T Holden
MN-01 T Walz
OH-06 C Wilson
CT-AG G Jepsen
CT-SC K Lembo
CT-SS D Merrill
OR-ST T Wheeler
MN-SA R Otto
NM-SS M Herrera
MO-SA S Montee
I know not polls for these races, and I hope good news from the majority, but I expect some trouble still from here.
Boxer raised $6.2m last quarter while Fiorina took in $5.9m. Big gap in CoH though which is obviously why the NRSC are getting involved – Boxer $6.5m to $1.8m.
Joe Sestak raised $3.25m in Q3 and reported $2.66m in the bank as of the end of September. Pat Toomey had $2.3m on hand after raising $3.8m in the last quarter.
One of Nevada’s most prominent female Republican political figures says she’ll vote against GOP Senate candidate Sharron Angle because of what she called her “extreme” anti-abortion views.
Sue Wagner is a former lieutenant governor, state legislator and Nevada Gaming Commission member. She helped initiate a voter-approved referendum in 1990 protecting abortion rights in the state.
Wagner said Friday she’s not endorsing Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. But she becomes the latest prominent northern Nevada Republican to speak against Angle, who’s in a tight race against Reid.
Angle opposes abortion in all circumstances, including rape and incest.
THIS is why i love Boxer, she pulls out the punches fast and hard.
I must admit… I love it! It’s a very smart, clever, and dare I say cute way to discredit Toomey. I must admit I was down on PA-Sen just a couple weeks ago, but I now see there’s been a method to Sestak’s “madness”. He’s crazy… Like a fox.
– Little party cross-over support for either candidate. Fiorina up 5 with Indies.
– Among the undecideds, voters “lean” toward Fiorina by 1 point.
CA-Gov:
– Modest party cross-over support for both candidates; 14% of Dems for Whitman, 17% of Republicans for Brown. Whitman actually leads Brown by 11 among Indies, but 11% of Indies are backing a third-party candidate.
– Among the undecideds, voters “lean” toward Whitman by 6 points.
They released their Senate likely-to-flip rankings today.
Their blurbs included some interesting tea leaves. Here are those interesting ones……
2. Arkansas (2): The buzz we’re hearing is that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is making up ground against John Boozman (R). But the kind of ground we’re talking about is turning a 20-point race into a 10-point race. PROBABLE R.
6. Colorado (6): The public polls we’ve seen show Ken Buck (R) leading Sen. Michael Bennet (D), but Democrats say their internals have Bennet ahead. TOSS UP.
AR confirms what I always thought would happen, that Lincoln would close enough to lose by a convincing but less-than-total-blowout margin.
PA and CO are VERY interesting to me. I hope the Sestak rally is real and sustained. And CO is curious because First Read called that one moving toward Buck in their morning digest on Thursday, but now suggest that’s based on public polls only (same as we’ve seen) that conflict with Dem internals. No word, though, on GOP internals. Are they seeing the same but keeping mum?
On others, they’ve got the same rankings most of us have, with ND at the top, IN and WI behind AR, and after CO it’s IL, NV, WV, and WA. CA is 11th, followed by KY; MO; CT; AK; FL; NH; OH; DE; NC; and LA.
Myself, I agree with the top 11 but would put AK 12th, before KY. I would also move up NH ahead of FL and maybe even ahead of CT. And I would flip-flop NC and LA, as Burr has become very safe and Marshall has neither the money nor ammunition to use against him, distinguishable from Melancon having some money and a lot more ammunition against Vitter.
I’m still going down the races chronologically from poll closing times on Election Day. KY-3 and KY-6 (closing at 6PM EDT) I’m thinking are staying Democratic. IN-9 (also closing at 6PM EDT) I am not counting on, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it stays Democratic.
After that, at the 7PM EDT closing mark, I’ll be watching IN-8 (going Repub), IN-2 (staying Dem), GA-2 and GA-12 (both staying Dem), GA-8 (hopefully staying Dem), FL-24 (Repub), FL-8 (Repub, but we might get surprised), FL-22 (this one I have questions about, but hopefully Dem), SC-5 (like IN-9 before, I’m not counting on it, but it’s a bit of a wild card), VA-5 (Repub, but we might get surprised), VA-2 (ditto), and VA-11 (Dem).
On the subject of FL-22, somebody on here please persuade me that Allen West wont win. I’m having doubts.
I am not feeling good about Dems’ chances of holding the Iowa House. We currently have a 56-44 majority. There are four Republican-held seats we have a realistic shot at picking up (3 open, one where incumbent won by 13 votes in 2008). If I assume Ds pick up two of those seats, Rs need to pick up 9 Dem-held seats to take an Iowa House majority. There are probably at least 16 Iowa House districts in play, so they don’t need to run the table to win the chamber. They are spending an unbelievable amount of money on paid media in some of these districts (by Iowa standards)–around $150K to $200K for some of the Iowa House seats. I am hoping the Ds’ ground game can compensate.
Also worried about the Iowa Supreme Court justices who are on the ballot for retention, as well as several of the statewide races.
Early voting is going well for Iowa Democrats, but Republicans are doing better than ever before on the absentee ballots. Ds still have an edge there, but not the 2-1 edge we had in past cycles.
Instead of just saying PA-Sen every week, this time I will say the Pennant Race. My Phillies will easily dispatch of the absurdly-named Giants and then get revenge on the Yankees in the World Series. The only question that remains is how can I get myself to the parade?!
First they endorse Dan Webster in FL-8 (I can understand that) but now they endorse Rubio for Senate!
That book advertised in the corner, is it any good? I am thinking about buying it. Anyone read it? It looks interesting.
There is a post-debate poll released, today, from Foster McCollum White and Associates and Baydoun Consulting for the Michigan governor’s race showing a 54% (Snyder-R) / 33% (Bernero-D) that is being called suspect. It uses the primary (which was MUCH more crowded on the GOP side) as the model, and quite a few folks are calling it bogus. The same polling firm released a poll showing the difference at 12% just a day or two before the debate, and everyone (Republican and Dem) said the debate would at least hold that closing in on.
In good news in otherwise bad news in Michigan, the Dem SOS candidate is near a statistical tie (53% (Johnson(R) vs. 48% (Benson-D)) with the Republican. She may be the only one to win state-wide office, this year. The crazy thing is how little money SOS and AG candidates have spent in Michigan. I’ve never seen the airwaves this quiet.
IMHO this one is much better, as it makes personal the case against Heck…
I know some of y’all liked the DCCC’s first NV-03, but I still think they didn’t make much of an argument by just essentially laughing off Heck’s “bad ideas”. At least this one makes an attempt to be as effective as EMILY’s List’s ad that was running almost nonstop last month:
I usually watch cable TV so I haven’t seen that many political ads. But I was watching the 11:00 ABC news in Philadelphia tonight and about three quarters of all the ads were political attack ads from pretty much every federal race in the Philly market. Sadly, most of the ads were Republican (though I thought Adler’s piece against John Runyan’s farm subsidies was the best), but I had a field day flipping between the broadcast channels during commercial breaks.
Is it this bad everywhere else??
Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn… uh, where was I?
If DavidNYC is now talking about LOST….
Rep. Jim Cooper, TN-05: “I’m Jim Cooper and I approve this ad, but I won’t pay for it in color.”
some media buys, mostly the same places, I’d have to look. MS-04, GA-02, PA-12, TX-23, and PA-04 are new buys I think. They dropped a lot more in OH-18.
now up to NRCC spending $909K in OH-16, $840K in CO-04, $638K in VA-05. a lot of money spent to defeat people that were considered sure goners!
A Libertarian is getting 3% this time versus 1% in a prior poll earlier in the year. Everyone in the district knows Wilson and as majority don’t want him. The only thing is the Democratic label is a burden in this environment.
Miller has some salient issues against Wilson and there is a dbate next week. The DCCC sould put some money here.
Nate Silver has rated it lost. RCP has moved it from lean Democrat to toss-up. I saw two polls in the last week that showed Boswell leading by high single digits. Did I miss something here?
I’m mailing in my absentee soon but I’m still undecided on voting to retain the justices on the ballot. I take judgeships pretty seriously, but have almost no info about any of the justices. Anyone have any good sources for info/ recommendations for these races?
I’m trying to figure out the polling that has been done in this race, because the polls are dramatically different.
A Sept. 14-19 Franklin and Marshall College poll of 379 LVs had 46% for Mike Fitzpatrick (R), 36% for Patrick Murphy (D), and 17% undecided.
A Sept. 20-22 Harstad poll of 507 LVs for SEIU and VoteVets had 49% for Patrick Murphy (D), 46% for Mike Fitzpatrick (R), and 5% undecided.
An Oct. 11-13 Monmouth University poll of 646 LVs (apparently using SurveyUSA) had 51% for Fitzpatrick, 46% for Murphy, and 3% Other/undecided.
There are lots of questions here. Why does the Franklin and Marshall poll have such a significantly larger number of undecideds? Is the Monmouth poll a full-fledged SurveyUSA poll, or something less than that (the poll having something to do with SurveyUSA is buried in the press release)?
The Harstad poll (while being a Dem poll, grain of salt), is the only poll to list results of the respondents who voted in the 2006 midterm, and Murphy has a pretty significant lead over Fitzpatrick among those (52% to 44%). This seems like a LV screen that is pretty hard to debunk. Voting in the previous midterm seems like the most accurate way to predict that voters are going to vote in this midterm. If I was a betting man, would it be smart for me to bet that the final outcome of PA-8 is going to more closely resemble the Harstad’s “voted in 2006 and going to vote 52%-to-44% Muraphy this year” results than either of the two academic polls showing Fitzpatrick winning?
State Sen. Jorge Luis Garcia (D-Tucson) was 57. Garcia, who immigrated to this country from northern Mexico when he was 9 years old, leaves behind his wife of 38 years, Maria, and three grown children. The medical social worker turned Senate Minority Leader was running for one of two seats up this year on the five-member Corporation Commission. A low-key Democratic leader, biggest legislative passion was protecting public education. His death, the cause of which has still not been confirmed publicly, came as a shock to many, as he was on the campaign trail as recently as Thursday.
The commission, which regulates utilities and can give incentives for particular sectors of the utility industry (like, say, solar) to set up shop in Arizona, is currently run by 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats. While partisan control of the commission is at stake this cycle, this race had been seen as somewhat of an uphill battle for Garcia and fellow Democrat David Bradley (D-Tucson). However, Democrats won two seats on the commission in 2008 despite that being a horrible year for non-congressional Arizona Democrats, so certainly anything is possible. It’s too late for Garcia’s name to be taken off the ballot, but if he does win a Democrat will be appointed to the commission in his place by the governor. However, it’s unclear whether that appointment should be made when the election is certified (when Brewer will definitely still be governor) or once the vacancy actually occurs (at which point there’s at least the possibility that Goddard will be just becoming governor). This could be in the courts if the late Garcia and Goddard both win next month
newest ad features Aqua Buddha. This could go either way. Tell me if this link works, I have never poster a video here before.
goes after the American Action Network (AAN) for their $1 million district ad buy in a fiery press conference. (They just made a $1 million ad buy in the district.)
Not sure how effective this will be, but perhaps he’ll be able to neutralize the power of the buy. Personally, I think he’s impressive. I love this line near the end of the Q&A section:
Listen: The billionaires and Wall Street bankers who are behind this ad are fronting the money for political reasons. They do see an opportunity to win back the House of Representatives and return to the Bush economic agenda that benefited them and screwed all the rest of us.
Statement:
Q&A:
Reid’s inching closer, but Sandoval’s numbers need to start dropping if he wants a chance
The Dallas Morning News, one of Gov. Perry’s most reliable backers in Texas media throughout his career in politics, delivers a strong recommendation its readers vote for Bill White. The editorial hits Perry on ethics, partisan politics, lack of meaningful reform, and the governor’s campaign shtick of swagger over substance.
This is big, folks.
claims that he’s wrong about Pennsylvania Senate and that “polls are genuinely tightening”
Also eagerly awaiting the PPP take on WA-Sen. Perhaps some independent confirmation of tightening in PA-Sen too.
Ever heard of ccAdvertising? They have Manchin up 43-40.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
with a teabagger friend of mine, (they are so much fun to debate), and I was struck by a statement he made in response to some comments of mine talking about Germany:
All one can do is laugh. It did also make me wonder how many people actually identify with the tea party. Polling has been varied, but there was that ridiculous Siena poll in NY-23 that showed 45% of that district was pro tea party.
I’ve actually been wondering something myself; what did happen to Vermont to send it so radically and utterly into the liberal corner of the political spectrum? I mean just back in the 1990s it was a relatively swingish state on a local level, and national Republicans could usually get over 40% there. I mean whatever happened there hasn’t happened in NY-23 yet, or in New Hampshire, and not quite in Maine. But I would say it is a sort of example of what very might well happen all the way from Central NY, through the Hudson valley, through non anti-Tax Massachusetts suburbs New Hampshire, and through Maine.
1696 likely voters, 3% margin of error.
Survey USA/KAAL TV
Walz (D) 47
Demmer (R) 42
Wilson (IP) 4
Johnson (I) 2
Undecided 5
No Link yet.
Well, I’m bored of wait poll results from Vermont but not, this week I will not include the races from Vermont (what still are very interesting).
I’m interested in know about the next races:
MA-10 W Keating
PA-17 T Holden
MN-01 T Walz
OH-06 C Wilson
CT-AG G Jepsen
CT-SC K Lembo
CT-SS D Merrill
OR-ST T Wheeler
MN-SA R Otto
NM-SS M Herrera
MO-SA S Montee
I know not polls for these races, and I hope good news from the majority, but I expect some trouble still from here.
Boxer raised $6.2m last quarter while Fiorina took in $5.9m. Big gap in CoH though which is obviously why the NRSC are getting involved – Boxer $6.5m to $1.8m.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…
Christine O’Donnell raised $3.9m in July, August and September; Chris Coons raised $1.5m. She leads with CoH $2.6m to $1.3m.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…
Joe Sestak raised $3.25m in Q3 and reported $2.66m in the bank as of the end of September. Pat Toomey had $2.3m on hand after raising $3.8m in the last quarter.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
But she won’t explicitly endorse Reid. Still, not good news for Angle, who’s already being dogged with all the talk of a VERY divided Nevada GOP.
From RGJ:
THIS is why i love Boxer, she pulls out the punches fast and hard.
I must admit… I love it! It’s a very smart, clever, and dare I say cute way to discredit Toomey. I must admit I was down on PA-Sen just a couple weeks ago, but I now see there’s been a method to Sestak’s “madness”. He’s crazy… Like a fox.
And btw, Nate Silver is now confessing a PA insider contacted him about private polls showing tightening. So it looks like that DSCC poll showing Sestak +3 was NOT an outlier after all… 😉
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/…
It think it’s a cease-and-desist thing.
loaned his campaign $500K. 1st time since 1990 he has lent money to his campaign. $1.2M COH
(McMahon hasn’t reported yet)
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
http://www.ipsos-na.com/downlo…
Some key aspects to note…
CA-Sen:
– Little party cross-over support for either candidate. Fiorina up 5 with Indies.
– Among the undecideds, voters “lean” toward Fiorina by 1 point.
CA-Gov:
– Modest party cross-over support for both candidates; 14% of Dems for Whitman, 17% of Republicans for Brown. Whitman actually leads Brown by 11 among Indies, but 11% of Indies are backing a third-party candidate.
– Among the undecideds, voters “lean” toward Whitman by 6 points.
http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee…
My own voter model has him up by even more.
They released their Senate likely-to-flip rankings today.
Their blurbs included some interesting tea leaves. Here are those interesting ones……
AR confirms what I always thought would happen, that Lincoln would close enough to lose by a convincing but less-than-total-blowout margin.
PA and CO are VERY interesting to me. I hope the Sestak rally is real and sustained. And CO is curious because First Read called that one moving toward Buck in their morning digest on Thursday, but now suggest that’s based on public polls only (same as we’ve seen) that conflict with Dem internals. No word, though, on GOP internals. Are they seeing the same but keeping mum?
On others, they’ve got the same rankings most of us have, with ND at the top, IN and WI behind AR, and after CO it’s IL, NV, WV, and WA. CA is 11th, followed by KY; MO; CT; AK; FL; NH; OH; DE; NC; and LA.
Myself, I agree with the top 11 but would put AK 12th, before KY. I would also move up NH ahead of FL and maybe even ahead of CT. And I would flip-flop NC and LA, as Burr has become very safe and Marshall has neither the money nor ammunition to use against him, distinguishable from Melancon having some money and a lot more ammunition against Vitter.
I’m still going down the races chronologically from poll closing times on Election Day. KY-3 and KY-6 (closing at 6PM EDT) I’m thinking are staying Democratic. IN-9 (also closing at 6PM EDT) I am not counting on, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it stays Democratic.
After that, at the 7PM EDT closing mark, I’ll be watching IN-8 (going Repub), IN-2 (staying Dem), GA-2 and GA-12 (both staying Dem), GA-8 (hopefully staying Dem), FL-24 (Repub), FL-8 (Repub, but we might get surprised), FL-22 (this one I have questions about, but hopefully Dem), SC-5 (like IN-9 before, I’m not counting on it, but it’s a bit of a wild card), VA-5 (Repub, but we might get surprised), VA-2 (ditto), and VA-11 (Dem).
On the subject of FL-22, somebody on here please persuade me that Allen West wont win. I’m having doubts.
I am not feeling good about Dems’ chances of holding the Iowa House. We currently have a 56-44 majority. There are four Republican-held seats we have a realistic shot at picking up (3 open, one where incumbent won by 13 votes in 2008). If I assume Ds pick up two of those seats, Rs need to pick up 9 Dem-held seats to take an Iowa House majority. There are probably at least 16 Iowa House districts in play, so they don’t need to run the table to win the chamber. They are spending an unbelievable amount of money on paid media in some of these districts (by Iowa standards)–around $150K to $200K for some of the Iowa House seats. I am hoping the Ds’ ground game can compensate.
Also worried about the Iowa Supreme Court justices who are on the ballot for retention, as well as several of the statewide races.
Early voting is going well for Iowa Democrats, but Republicans are doing better than ever before on the absentee ballots. Ds still have an edge there, but not the 2-1 edge we had in past cycles.
Instead of just saying PA-Sen every week, this time I will say the Pennant Race. My Phillies will easily dispatch of the absurdly-named Giants and then get revenge on the Yankees in the World Series. The only question that remains is how can I get myself to the parade?!
First they endorse Dan Webster in FL-8 (I can understand that) but now they endorse Rubio for Senate!
http://www.orlandosentinel.com…
That book advertised in the corner, is it any good? I am thinking about buying it. Anyone read it? It looks interesting.
There is a post-debate poll released, today, from Foster McCollum White and Associates and Baydoun Consulting for the Michigan governor’s race showing a 54% (Snyder-R) / 33% (Bernero-D) that is being called suspect. It uses the primary (which was MUCH more crowded on the GOP side) as the model, and quite a few folks are calling it bogus. The same polling firm released a poll showing the difference at 12% just a day or two before the debate, and everyone (Republican and Dem) said the debate would at least hold that closing in on.
In good news in otherwise bad news in Michigan, the Dem SOS candidate is near a statistical tie (53% (Johnson(R) vs. 48% (Benson-D)) with the Republican. She may be the only one to win state-wide office, this year. The crazy thing is how little money SOS and AG candidates have spent in Michigan. I’ve never seen the airwaves this quiet.
IMHO this one is much better, as it makes personal the case against Heck…
I know some of y’all liked the DCCC’s first NV-03, but I still think they didn’t make much of an argument by just essentially laughing off Heck’s “bad ideas”. At least this one makes an attempt to be as effective as EMILY’s List’s ad that was running almost nonstop last month:
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
PPP is polling AZ-03.
I usually watch cable TV so I haven’t seen that many political ads. But I was watching the 11:00 ABC news in Philadelphia tonight and about three quarters of all the ads were political attack ads from pretty much every federal race in the Philly market. Sadly, most of the ads were Republican (though I thought Adler’s piece against John Runyan’s farm subsidies was the best), but I had a field day flipping between the broadcast channels during commercial breaks.
Is it this bad everywhere else??
If DavidNYC is now talking about LOST….
Rep. Jim Cooper, TN-05: “I’m Jim Cooper and I approve this ad, but I won’t pay for it in color.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f…
American Crossroads making media buys: FL-22, HI-01, NY-25, NY-20
NRCC spending:
polling MO-04, TN-04, AL-02, OH-16, AZ-05, VA-05, NY-20, MA-10, WI-07, WV-01, NM-02, WI-08, IN-09, SD-01, TX-17, TX-23, PA-03, GA-08, VA-02, GA-02, MS-04, MS-01, MN-01, PA-12, WA-03, PA-10.
some media buys, mostly the same places, I’d have to look. MS-04, GA-02, PA-12, TX-23, and PA-04 are new buys I think. They dropped a lot more in OH-18.
now up to NRCC spending $909K in OH-16, $840K in CO-04, $638K in VA-05. a lot of money spent to defeat people that were considered sure goners!
46-45.
http://www.katu.com/news/local…
House seats lost.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…
http://www.thestate.com has the story.
A Libertarian is getting 3% this time versus 1% in a prior poll earlier in the year. Everyone in the district knows Wilson and as majority don’t want him. The only thing is the Democratic label is a burden in this environment.
Miller has some salient issues against Wilson and there is a dbate next week. The DCCC sould put some money here.
Nate Silver has rated it lost. RCP has moved it from lean Democrat to toss-up. I saw two polls in the last week that showed Boswell leading by high single digits. Did I miss something here?
Rasmussen has Buck leading 47-45.
That’s Bennet’s best Rasmussen showing all year (Buck led by 5% two weeks ago): http://www.realclearpolitics.c…
PPP was right after all?
I’m mailing in my absentee soon but I’m still undecided on voting to retain the justices on the ballot. I take judgeships pretty seriously, but have almost no info about any of the justices. Anyone have any good sources for info/ recommendations for these races?
I’m trying to figure out the polling that has been done in this race, because the polls are dramatically different.
A Sept. 14-19 Franklin and Marshall College poll of 379 LVs had 46% for Mike Fitzpatrick (R), 36% for Patrick Murphy (D), and 17% undecided.
A Sept. 20-22 Harstad poll of 507 LVs for SEIU and VoteVets had 49% for Patrick Murphy (D), 46% for Mike Fitzpatrick (R), and 5% undecided.
An Oct. 11-13 Monmouth University poll of 646 LVs (apparently using SurveyUSA) had 51% for Fitzpatrick, 46% for Murphy, and 3% Other/undecided.
There are lots of questions here. Why does the Franklin and Marshall poll have such a significantly larger number of undecideds? Is the Monmouth poll a full-fledged SurveyUSA poll, or something less than that (the poll having something to do with SurveyUSA is buried in the press release)?
The Harstad poll (while being a Dem poll, grain of salt), is the only poll to list results of the respondents who voted in the 2006 midterm, and Murphy has a pretty significant lead over Fitzpatrick among those (52% to 44%). This seems like a LV screen that is pretty hard to debunk. Voting in the previous midterm seems like the most accurate way to predict that voters are going to vote in this midterm. If I was a betting man, would it be smart for me to bet that the final outcome of PA-8 is going to more closely resemble the Harstad’s “voted in 2006 and going to vote 52%-to-44% Muraphy this year” results than either of the two academic polls showing Fitzpatrick winning?
State Sen. Jorge Luis Garcia (D-Tucson) was 57. Garcia, who immigrated to this country from northern Mexico when he was 9 years old, leaves behind his wife of 38 years, Maria, and three grown children. The medical social worker turned Senate Minority Leader was running for one of two seats up this year on the five-member Corporation Commission. A low-key Democratic leader, biggest legislative passion was protecting public education. His death, the cause of which has still not been confirmed publicly, came as a shock to many, as he was on the campaign trail as recently as Thursday.
The commission, which regulates utilities and can give incentives for particular sectors of the utility industry (like, say, solar) to set up shop in Arizona, is currently run by 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats. While partisan control of the commission is at stake this cycle, this race had been seen as somewhat of an uphill battle for Garcia and fellow Democrat David Bradley (D-Tucson). However, Democrats won two seats on the commission in 2008 despite that being a horrible year for non-congressional Arizona Democrats, so certainly anything is possible. It’s too late for Garcia’s name to be taken off the ballot, but if he does win a Democrat will be appointed to the commission in his place by the governor. However, it’s unclear whether that appointment should be made when the election is certified (when Brewer will definitely still be governor) or once the vacancy actually occurs (at which point there’s at least the possibility that Goddard will be just becoming governor). This could be in the courts if the late Garcia and Goddard both win next month
newest ad features Aqua Buddha. This could go either way. Tell me if this link works, I have never poster a video here before.
https://secure.actblue.com/con…
goes after the American Action Network (AAN) for their $1 million district ad buy in a fiery press conference. (They just made a $1 million ad buy in the district.)
Not sure how effective this will be, but perhaps he’ll be able to neutralize the power of the buy. Personally, I think he’s impressive. I love this line near the end of the Q&A section:
Statement:
Q&A:
Reid’s inching closer, but Sandoval’s numbers need to start dropping if he wants a chance
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
worth a read
http://www.dallasnews.com/shar…
The Dallas Morning News, one of Gov. Perry’s most reliable backers in Texas media throughout his career in politics, delivers a strong recommendation its readers vote for Bill White. The editorial hits Perry on ethics, partisan politics, lack of meaningful reform, and the governor’s campaign shtick of swagger over substance.
This is big, folks.
claims that he’s wrong about Pennsylvania Senate and that “polls are genuinely tightening”
http://twitter.com/fivethirtye…
http://www.denverpost.com/opin…