SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition)

Too many polls, too little time. A quick-and-dirty morning digest for you.

  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov – SurveyUSA: Boxer (D-inc) 46, Fiorina (R) 44; Brown 47 (D), Whitman (R) 40
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PDF) – Wilson Research (R): Boxer (D-inc) 43, Fiorina (R) 46; Brown (D) 44, Whitman (R) 45
  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (PDF) – Ipsos/Reuters: Bennet (D) 45, Buck (R) 48; Hickenlooper (D) 46, Maes (R) 14, Tancredo (ACP) 35
  • FL-02 – Susquehanna for Sunshine State News: Boyd (D-inc) 38, Southerland (R) 50
  • GA-Gov – Insider Advantage: Barnes (D) 40, Deal (R) 45
  • KY-Sen – Bennet, Petts and Normington (D) for the DSCC: Conway (D) 49, Paul (R) 47

    • Note: I’m informed that this poll had a sample of 600.

  • MA-04 – Kiley & Co. (D) for Barney Frank: Frank (D-inc) 56, Bielat (R) 37
  • MD-Gov, MD-Sen (PDF) – Gonzales Research: O’Malley (D-inc) 47, Ehrlich (R) 42; Mikulski (D-inc) 55, Wargotz (R) 38
  • NC-Sen (PDF) – Public Policy Polling: Burr (R-inc) 48, Marshall (D) 40
  • NJ-06 – National Research (R): Pallone (D-inc) 44, Little (R) 43
  • NY-19 (PDF) – Monmouth: Hall (D-inc) 49, Hayworth (R) 48
  • NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (PDF) – New York Times: Schumer (D-inc) 61, Townsend (R) 21; Gillibrand (D-inc) 50, DioGuardi (R) 25
  • OH-Gov – Quinnipiac: Strickland (D-inc) 41, Kasich (R) 51
  • OR-Gov, OR-Sen – Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos: Kitzhaber (D) 48, Dudley (R) 47; Wyden (D-inc) 56, Huffman (R) 40
  • SC-Gov (PDF) – Crantford & Associates (D): Sheheen (D) 41, Haley (R) 43
  • UT-02 Dan Jones & Associates: Matheson (D-inc) 57, Philpot (R) 31
  • WI-Sen – St. Norbert: Feingold (D-inc) 47, Johnson (R) 49
  • WI-07 – We Ask America: Lassa (D) 39, Duffy (R) 46

    • Margins & Errors: Marc Ambinder tweets about supposedly close internals on both sides in OH-Gov… If the gang at NBC is to be believed, Joe Miller might be turning into Bizarro Scozzafava: “Miller’s getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed.”… The Fix faithfully transcribes a batch of NRCC polls, without firm names, sample sizes, or field dates

    103 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition)”

    4. This race is swinging back and forth, depending on the negative ads on air, last time that Scott was in the lead, like 2 weeks ago and a bit more, after Sink leads, Rasmussen was the first to show it and they other followed and then it reversed and then it might have reversed again.

    6. What I’m finding when I talk to people, is that undecideds are breaking for Scott.  Mostly because those who had reservations about him now seem to have them about Sink as well and are just going into default GOP mode.  Sink’s ‘Law Enforcement’ ad was good, but she hasn’t come up with an effective one since then.  If she had another good one in her bag, now is the time to let it out.

    9. I’ve been looking through the archives on the website, and there are lots of incredibly stupid comments on the posts I’m looking at (May 2004) (some good ones, but still). Was there any specific time where DavidNYC started bringing the banhammer down to make things better (a LOT better), or was it just the effect of as you went down further into the weeds, the trolls mostly lost interest? Just curious, because SSP has pretty much the best comments of any website that I go to (and that is quite a few!)

    10. Quite a number of leaked internals have pretty high margins of error (often 5.7%).  I can’t imagine most campaigns would settle for such a high MoE in their “real” polling.  Could it be that the polls with higher MoE are more likely to have been deliberately tilted some way while other leaked internals may actually show what the campaign is seeing?  Or am I just demonstrating why I bombed stats?

    11. would he drop out?  he seems too arrogant and self serving, but i thought the same about hoffman and he dropped out earlier too.

    13. Here’s the link:

      http://www.lasvegassun.com/new…

      And here’s the key graf:

      So what do we know so far? Not a lot. I have three days worth of data to peruse, just under a fourth of the 14-day total. Despite reports elsewhere, the Republicans have yet to show any unusual surge in voting, and The Reid Machine is holding its own.

      So far, in the state’s two urban counties, the Republicans have less than a percentage point edge in turnout. If the Republican turnout edge by the end of early voting is 5 percent or so – standard for a midterm – the Democrats will be pretty happy, albeit edgy.

      Reid needs a small GOP margin to survive. It comes down to something either candidate might say in an unguarded moment if asked by an innocent voter what the election is really all about:

      It’s the turnout, stupid.

      This is what’s hard to gauge, the MEANING of early turnout numbers.  Politico ran a piece yesterday that said early turnout numbers were bad for Reid.  I read it suspiciously, and sure enough all they relied upon were raw numbers of Dems and GOPers voting to draw their conclusion.  You have to do apples-to-apples, comparing midterm to midterm and measuring each party’s turnout against its percentage of total registered voters.  And even then I find I get confused and frustrated and give up before I can draw a confident conclusion.

      I’m glad Ralston is experienced enough in following Nevada elections to tell us the bottom line.

    15. Both the Des Moines Register and the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed Dave Loebsack. I was surprised by the Gazette, because that is a more conservative leaning newspaper in general, and they had endorsed Miller-Meeks in 2008.

    16. That’s what I’ve been telling everyone here for some time, and this morning Ralston came to the same conclusion.

      So what do we know so far? Not a lot. I have three days worth of data to peruse, just under a fourth of the 14-day total. Despite reports elsewhere, the Republicans have yet to show any unusual surge in voting, and The Reid Machine is holding its own.

      So far, in the state’s two urban counties, the Republicans have less than a percentage point edge in turnout. If the Republican turnout edge by the end of early voting is 5 percent or so – standard for a midterm – the Democrats will be pretty happy, albeit edgy.

      Reid needs a small GOP margin to survive. It comes down to something either candidate might say in an unguarded moment if asked by an innocent voter what the election is really all about:

      It’s the turnout, stupid.

      And unless there was a HUGE GOP surge in Washoe yesterday (unlikely, since Sarah Palin arrived and left Monday), the Clark early vote numbers point to a still standing Dem lead.

    19. Most of NY’s statewide races are now uninteresting but Siena also tested the one competitive race: NY-AG. Schneiderman is up 44% to 37%.

      DiNapoli leads 49-32 in the Comptroller race.

      Has there been any poll with Donovan within the MoE or leading over Schneiderman?  

    24. invovlement in strip searching teenage girls. Can I just say that this slate of GOP candidates are truly disgusting? We have a candidate who dresses up like a nazi; some guy who participated in strip searches of teenage girls; multiple candidates who have domestic abuse incidents; a guy being sued for sexual assault; and some guy who is lying about his income to avoid child support payments. I thought the GOP was supposed to be the party of morals?

    26. from http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo… , a comment by a user named “tinsk”:

      Here is the thing about Joe Miller. Just as in religion, there are people who are political proselytizers. They are continually trying to engage people (often to the point of argument) in their own personal political beliefs with the sole purpose of making converts to their side. They don’t have the self control shut-off valve between their head and their mouths to know what’s appropriate and what’s not in any group setting.

      This behavior is driven by a blend of narcissism and paranoia (irrational fear of “the other”). Joe Miller’s employment difficulties have followed him his whole adult life because he is a political and religious (Evangelical deriving from evangelist sect) proselytizer. And their is nothing worse than being locked in a work environment and having to listen to somebody who is driven to prove that your beliefs, political AND religious, are wrong and you need to cross over to their side.

      Palin is another prime example of this behavior.

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