SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition)

• CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, who’s temporarily off the campaign trail and in the hospital after an infection associated with reconstructive surgery that she had over the summer after recovering from breast cancer. She’s says she’ll be back in action soon.

• CO-Sen: The Democrats in Colorado have filed an FEC complaint with Ken Buck, alleging illegal coordination. The coordination was between Buck and Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund (which has spent $370K here so far). This doesn’t look likely to get addressed before Election Day, though.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul eventually got around, today, to cutting ties with and condemning a volunteer involved in assaulting a MoveOn activist before last night’s debate, outside the venue. An activist trying to give a fake award to Paul was shoved to the ground and kicked/trampled.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle has always been the prime example of the GOP’s apparent strategy for its more troublesome candidates (which is to have them hide from the media), but this is a little extreme: all manner of sleight-of-hand was used at a Reno appearance to keep her away from about 40 reporters who were looking for her, to the extent of using a decoy to get into her official vehicle while she left through a side door. Also, here’s an interesting catch, especially since Angle supposedly has a lot of cash these days: her latest filing has nothing about salaries for her staff. Oversight, or is there more of a burn rate problem than we’d been led to believe?

• WA-Sen: This CQ article is your generic this-race-is-tight-and-important piece, but it has a few interesting tidbits buried in it: one, Patty Murray’s internals have her up “around 4,” although that’s all we get to find out. And two, this election is already effectively more-than-half over: the state SoS’s office says that 50% of all voters have submitted their ballots, on track for turnout of at least 66%, which would be third-highest non-presidential turnout ever in the state. (I assume you all know which party tends to do better in higher-turnout models.) Finally, Dino Rossi’s doing a little hiding from the media himself: on a conference call with reporters, Rossi actually refused to say where he was calling from, just that he was “traveling all over right now.” (Maybe we should be looking for the guy in the red and white striped shirt?)

• VT-Gov: Biden alert! Here’s one election where every single vote will count (seeing as how it has fewer constituents than most House districts), and the veep is trying to roust out some votes with a Burlington appearance with Dem nominee Peter Shumlin the day before the election.

• CA-47: This was a weird election even before this, with stark racial overtones, and now it’s even weirder: an independent candidate, Cecilia Iglesias, is making her presence known with a TV ad buy (although just on local cable on Univision). Who will this hurt? The GOP says it’ll hurt Loretta Sanchez, because it splits the Latino vote. The Dems say it’ll hurt Van Tran, since Iglesias is a “known Republican.”

• CT-05: Hmm, here’s a novel strategy for dealing with ads from third party groups that contain blatant lies: push back against them, and TV stations just may stop running them. That’s what happened in Connecticut, where the American Action Network’s ads against Chris Murphy got taken down, by Fox-CT (on cable) no less. (The ad is part of the series saying that you can go to jail for not having health insurance.)

• VA-05: This is big all around: that the President is stumping on behalf of a House candidate (albeit one within a helicopter ride away from DC), and that said House candidate in a red district is welcoming him. In case you didn’t guess, it’s Tom Perriello, who’ll be rallying UVA students with the Prez in Charlottesville.

• American Crossroads: Here’s part of the Crossroads road map for the last week: at a cost of $3 million altogether, they’re moving into NC-11, NY-20, and GA-02, as well as continuing their presence in HI-01 and NY-22. They’re also launching ads in CA-20, IN-02, MO-03, ND-AL, TN-04, OH-16, and TX-23.

• SSP TV:

• KY-Sen: The NRSC and Rand Paul both turn the tables on Jack Conway, saying he wants to talk about Paul’s checkered past (i.e. Aqua Buddha) to avoid talking about Obama

• NV-Sen: The NRSC is out with a rather incoherent ad about how Harry Reid fancies himself a superhero, while Sharron Angle‘s out with another border-themed ad with menacing shadowy men who, of course, aren’t actually Latino

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s closing argument cites his independence

• WV-Sen: Thank God for trackers… Joe Manchin’s camp strings together John Raese’s greatest hits at various appearances to demonstrate his “crazy” ideas

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown wins the jujitsu black belt for his closing ad (if not the overall Zen master award for his whole campaign): unlike the very busy Manchin ad, he only needs one quote from Meg Whitman to make his own case for himself… she says she came to California 30 years ago because it back then it was a land of opportunity and it worked (uh, Meg? who was governor of California 30 years ago?)

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal’s closing ad says Roy Barnes is too ambitious, and Deal is just a humble public servant

• TX-Gov: Bill White’s new ad says 10 years is too long, playing the dread “career politician” card on Rick Perry

• MA-10: The DCCC’s new ad in the 10th goes after Jeff Perry’s controversial police sergeant tenure, in case anyone there was unaware of it

• OH-18: Zack Space goes after Bob Gibbs on outsourcing and immigration

• VA-05: The Sierra Club’s out with an ad bolstering Tom Perriello

• CA-Init: I’m not sure I thought I’d live to see the day where there ads running in favor of the legalization of marijuana, but apparently the Yes on 19 campaign was able to scrape together enough stems and seeds for a TV buy

• Rasmussen Classic:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 46%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%, John Monds (L) 5%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 58 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 21 58%, Some other 15%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 53%

• New Rasmussen (aka Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39%, Bill Brady (R) 44%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 43%, Rand Paul (R) 50%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

450 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition)”

  3. aka — for the House, I think it will be either

    Ds lose 25-30 seats

    or

    Ds lose 55-60 seats

    something always seems to happen in the last few days before an election.

    It could be a simple as OfA being effective in unexpected ways… or voters just deciding to throw out the party in power.

  4. 1. That MA-10 ad is D-Trip, not NRCC.

    2.  BidenWatch: PA-07 tomorrow. His second event for Bryan Lentz; he and Pelosi also did a joint fundraiser for Lentz/DCCC on July 19.

    3. What could Feingold have done differently?  Sigh.

  6. PPP now has Rand Paul up by 13 points, 53%-40%.

    There’s been no change in Rand Paul’s favorability numbers in the wake of the controversial ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad. He’s at a net +6 (49/43), virtually identical to his +5 (45/40) a month ago. Jack Conway has seen his numbers plunge though. Where before voters split evenly in their assessments of him, giving him a favorability of 36/36, they now view him mostly in a negative light at -13 (39/52).

    There’s little doubt the ad has backfired. 56% of voters say they think it was inappropriate to only 15% who think it was alright. Even Democrats feel by a 41/24 spread that it crossed the line and perhaps relating back to Conway’s huge new deficit with independents they think it was wrong by a 68/7 spread.

    Now if Conway hadn’t aired that ad, and then that Paul supporter stomped on that woman….

  8. Don’t you wish that this had happened to your least favorite candidate?

    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/20…

    Charlie Sheen has been hospitalized voluntarily for intoxication and psychological evaluation after police found him drunk and naked in a trashed midtown hotel suite, sources told 1010 WINS’ Carol D’Auria.

    Sources told CBS 2 HD that Sheen was higly intoxicated when he was found and had apparently started drinking about 8 p.m. Monday. A mystery woman allegedly called police sometime after 1:30 a.m. from inside the bathroom in the room for help.

    The New York Post reported that police officials said the woman was an escort.

    Imagine the fun if instead of Charlie Sheen, it said Rand Paul/Jerry Brown/Rick Scott/Joe Miller…etc.

    (I know this is off topic, it just struck me as funny.  We all wish for a game change in the closing week in races where our guy/gal is behind and how much fun would it be if this happened?)

  10. Is everyone going to be glued to SSP or CableTV that night?  I have decided not to put myself through it all. I do not want to become a drunk at this stage in my life and I feel that I would need lots of adult beverages for the night.  So, I plan not to watch TV, not look at the Internet, or even think about this election after Nov. 1.

    Also, I will not watch the news for literally a month after the election.  I did it after the 2000 and 2004 election and it made it all seem better.

    I will hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  

  12. Don’t think these made the digest yet:

    Monmouth has runyan 47- Adler 44 in NJ 3. I guess NJ 12 may be coming out tomorrow at least according to some commentor earlier.  Probably on between the pallone and Adler numbers.  

    Sunshine state has webster 48-Grayson 41. I am not sure that this race is even on the radar screen anymore for most people (I haven’t dropped by kos in a while).

    My apologies for the lack of links, post by phone.  

  15. People keep saying, “Oh, it’s gonna flip,” but Keating has led in polls and an ad blast like that is the kind of thing that sticks in a voter’s mind when she heads into the booth next Tuesday.

  16. the following choices of upsets which is most likely (or your gut tells you) to going to happen?

    A. O’Donnell wins

    B. Frank loses

    C. Boxer loses

    D. Tom Perillo (SP?) wins

    E. Belbene (SP?, I suck with names) wins in Washington.

    F. Quayle loses in AZ

    G. We keep the House.

    H. We lose the Senate.

    I would pick F, that seems the most likely, albeit not very likely even with the PPP poll.  

  18. It seems like Reid has been down consistently in the past few days.  Granted it is still within the margin-of-error, it would still be better for him to be on top.

  19. In new Reuters/Ipsos poll: http://blogs.reuters.com/front…

    Both are at 46.  Poll shows rather depressed Democratic turnout. Registered voters have Sestak leading easily.  Onorato is only down 49-43, having closed a 15-point gap.  I guess I underestimated Onorato.  Onorato leads among registered voters.

    Their criteria for a likely voter aren’t bad, but I have complaints as usual.  1: You had to have voted in 2008.  That criterion will miss a very tiny number of first-time voters.  2: You had to have said at least “7” on a ten-point school of self-report likelihood for voting.  3: You have to have had at least some interest in the political campaigns.  I find that last criterion least relevant.  People vote all the time not knowing a damn thing about the campaigns.  

    If I had commissioned the poll, I would just have believed self-report scores.

    I think Corbett thought he had this race sewn up.  He could have put away Onorato early, but he didn’t.

  20. Everyone here couldn’t understand how Siena had such a huge shift, I just read on North Country Public Radio blog, quoting the head of Siena, Greenberg, saying that they switched likely voters models in between both polls, using now closer to the election a more stringent model. I only wonder which other polls if any were done with the new model.

  22. We’re scheduled to get tomorrow morning 2 Siena polls, on NY-19 and NY-24, both with Siena’s freshly updated likely voter model, late tonight we get 10 House polls from The Hill.

  23. Was about 50 people there, which considering the size of the room[and for that matter community] we were in probably not too bad. Hes a pretty entertaining guy and im happy i was able to find out it was happening only about two hours earlier. I think they said it was about his 5th campaign stop today. The weather today is pretty brutal too it is about 40F and raning with strong winds.

  24. some big buys so far:

    AR-01: $538K

    FL-25: $776K!  huge!

    AZ-08: first time on air, $132K

    CT-05: first time on air, $275K

    FL-22: first time on air, $316K

    looks like mostly coming out in alphabetical order, up to I

  26. I’m very busy at work but just had to write this–was just in the car and Meg Whitman got totally owned in this NPR interview.

    The reporter (Mechelle Norris, maybe?) just hammered away at her lack of qualifications, had her apologizing and taking “accountability” for her lack of even bothering to vote, admitting she was a very flawed candidate and that people were unhappy with their choices.

    eMeg made a valiant effort to stay on-message, but she. got. owned. Honestly, that’s what happens when you basically try to avoid the press and wage an air war–it means you’re weak and unaccustomed to answering questions when you actually have to go up against a competent reporter. NPR FTW!  

  29. I got an e-mail today inviting me to the Stony Brook campus for an event involving Bill Clinton and Tim Bishop. I’m tempted to go, because I’ve been in a shitty mood and I’ve always wanted to get a picture with Bill Clinton, but it’s in the middle of the day and I don’t think I can swing it.

    But more importantly, is this a sign things are a lot worse than many are saying for Bishop? I’m not sure, but I’m leaning towards no because, while it’s a slightly competitive race, there doesn’t appear to be much polling on the district.

    What do you guys think?

  30. but what do people think of the Tea Party-ish Rob Ford winning the Toronto mayoral election with 47% of the vote, against the Liberal candidate, Smitherman, who received 36%, and the 12% that went to the New Democrat, Pantalone (who was essentially running on the incumbent’s record)? Many were fiercely opposed to Ford, and he seems to be very controversial (see his Wikipedia page for some of his racist, homophobic, and anti-poor comments, as well as numerous other scandals as a city councillor), but his anti-government message somehow won. Are the effects of the Tea Party reaching to the Great White North? Really, this is a guy who stated that “(AIDS) is very preventable,” and that “if you are not doing needles and you are not gay, you wouldn’t get AIDS probably, that’s bottom line,” as well as “Those Oriental people work like dogs. They work their hearts out … that’s why they’re successful in life. … I’m telling you, Oriental people, they’re slowly taking over, because there’s no excuses for them. They’re hard, hard workers.” And there’s A LOT more weird/insane stuff where that came from.

  31. Do ya’ll think Fiorina being hospitalized will move the race in one direction or the other? I could see it doing one of two things: Helping Boxer by questioning if Fiorina is healthy enough for office, b/c that was a question when she announced. It could also draw attention to Fiorina’s cancer, which many people are unaware of, and help her with women.  

  37. Polls from The Hill

    GOP leading…

    CO-03

    Tipton 47

    Salazar 43

    FL-02

    Southerland 50

    Boyd        33

    PN-11

    Barletta  48

    Kanjorski 43

    TX-17

    Flores  52

    Edwards 40

    Dem leading…

    IN-09

    Hill    46

    Young   44

    IA-03

    Boswell  49

    Zaun     37

    ND-AL

    Pomeroy 45

    Berg    44

    SD-AL

    Herseth Sandlin 45

    Noem            42

    A split decision with both sides leading in four races.  I still tend to thing the GOP gets ND, never been sure about SD due to the speeding tickets.  But IN-09 for sure will give us the best early benchmark as to how the night goes.

    http://thehill.com/house-polls…

  39. … may actually be helping Pomeroy and Sandlin. I think both are personally popular but many moderates viewed a vote for them as a vote for Pelosi. If they think the Dems are going to lose the House regardless they may want to keep their “good” Democrat.

  40. He had been touted as a rising star in either party, and Dems tried very hard to recruit him to run in LA-03. This move is not a surprise for me, as he has used very conservative, anti-Obama rhetoric in the past. I have to wonder if he is preparing to restart his political future, after having served in cabinet level positions the last few years. He could be considering a run for SoS since the frontrunner to succeed him as Lt. Gov is Jay Dardenne, the current SoS. Angelle was appointed by Jindal when Mitch Landrieu resigned to become mayor of New Orleans.

    http://www.bayoubuzz.com/buzz/…

    Angelle is the 3rd Democratic state party official to leave the party this year. He is LA’s first Republican Lt. Gov since Paul Harvey left office in 1992.  

    1. might be they really don’t care if Prop 19 passes or not. Me and some of my classmates in math class asked this one guy who we called “Weedman” what he thought of Prop 19. And the guy said, “I don’t really care.” I mean lets face it, young people smoking weed is like young people drinking at parties. Everyone knows they do it, even the police. The police will bust them if they do it, but they already bust you if they catch you drinking at parties, plus Schwarzenegger signed a bill recently that treated pot possession up to a certain amount like a traffic ticket.

      And the main argument of Prop 19, it’ll help bring in revenue and shut down the drug cartels washes over young people. Young people aren’t old enough to care as much about the government getting more money to stop deep cuts in schools like someone like my mom does. And knowing that their weed came from the drug cartels won’t keep them up at night feeling guilty that their money is being used to fund the bullets for AK-47’s, etc.

    1. what I mean.  I will be in a better mood about the “widely accepted/projected GOP CAT-5” near the holidays because I love Thanksgiving and Christmas.   The holiday season is my absolute favorite time of the year.  

      So, I will give thanks to God for all his blessings and be able to accept things as they are and not as I wish them to be.  

    2. It’s like reading all of the lead-up to the Super Bowl and then not watching because your team is definitely going to lose to the Patriots because they haven’t lost a game all year!  You still have to watch, plus you might be pleasantly surprised…

      Here’s a question…does anyone go to election night events that Campaigns put on?  I’ve been to several but I hate not being able to follow other races…I remember being at Corzine’s in 2000 and I spent the whole time by the TV cameras because they had tiny monitors that were showing NYC stations feeds (the big projectors were showing CNN so I couldn’t check out regional races as easily).  It was fun because you could see who the true junkies were, because we want to talk about everything going on.  It was me, a freeholder and and a State Assemblyman huddled around trying to see if Holt was still winning NJ-12.  (Side note, in 2000, Florida wasn’t the only bad call of the night;  I went to bed at 4am thinking Holt was a one-termer because the race was called by AP for Dick Zimmer.)

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