Quinnipiac (10/18-24, likely voters, 10/6-10 in parens):
Alex Sink (D): 45 (44)
Rick Scott (R): 41 (45)
Undecided: 11 (9)Kendrick Meek (D): 15 (22)
Marco Rubio (R): 42 (44)
Charlie Crist (I): 35 (30)
Undecided: 7 (4)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Quinnipiac’s latest Florida poll is their most optimistic one for Alex Sink in a while; they’ve been one of the more bearish pollsters in Florida for the last few months, and this is their first poll with a Sink lead since August. While this boost might just be chalked up to float within the margin of error, if nothing else it shows that “debategate” (in which Sink got a text message during her debate) didn’t seem to affect the dynamics of the race one way or the other.
Even more interesting is that Charlie Crist seems to be busting a late move in the Senate race, although it’s probably still too far out of reach for him to pull it out, given the weirdness of the three-way race and the split among left-of-center votes. His five-point gain pulls him within 7 of Marco Rubio. Crist’s gain comes at Meek’s loss (down 7 since the last poll), so there might be some last-minute consolidation by Dem-leaning voters deciding that Crist is the best way to avoid the specter of Rubio. (Crist now gets 51% of Dems, while Meek gets 36% of them. Indies go 43% for Crist, 38% for Rubio, and 9% for Meek.)
Mason-Dixon (10/25-27, likely voters, 10/4-6 in parens):
Alex Sink (D): 46 (44)
Rick Scott (R): 43 (40)
Undecided: 7 (-)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Mason-Dixon provides some confirmation today of Quinnipiac’s numbers with a poll taken slightly more recently, although they don’t see movement at all over the last few weeks (Sink led by 4, now by 3). Most interestingly, they find Scott’s unfavorables getting much worse: he’s now at 30/52, compared with Sink’s 49/44. It would be pretty remarkable to see anyone win with those kind of favorables, and a Scott win would obviously have a lot to do with the national climate. If there’s any doubt this is the nation’s closest major governor’s race, check out the trendlines from Pollster.com.
We need the base voters that you’ll bring out to help Alex, and the several FL House Ds currently in danger. It’ll pay dividends in redistricting, and I hope that you can be rewarded appropriately for your efforts.
M-D is post-debate. Compare…
Quinnipiac have Sink up 45-41 with positive favorables, 43-39. Scott is viewed unfavorably by 34-50.
Mason-Dixon have Sink up 46-43 with positive favorables, 44-39. Scott is viewed negatively 30-52.
Considering the debate and the fallout from it straddles the two polls I’d call this a good sign.
with a good track record of early voting this near election day is bunk. Rubio will win because of Meek’s arrogance and I frankly think Scott’s negatives is more beneficial to Sink than Meek staying in the Senate race.
Meek has no future career in FL Democratic politics and will sonn after become a lobbyist.
… with Bill Clinton’s urging. Supposedly, it got so far that they were discussing a Clinton-Meek-Crist endorsement rally this past a Tuesday (10/26).
> http://www.politico.com/news/s…
to stick it to the GOP by beating Rubio would rally out the vote more than turning out to vote for distant third place Meek, meaning it would have helped Sink.
Now to mention there would have been good synergy of Dems, indies and moderate GOP’s (ie those scared of Scott) that could have come together to bring Sink an Crist across the line.
Crist and Sink have worked together, could have endorsed each other as both putting Fla first. Sink has been running as more of an executive than a partisan.
But having Alex Sink not only means a guaranteed compromise US Congress map (Not St legislature unfortunately).
Electing her over Scott will be huge for legislation in this state. We were VERY lucky Crist became an independent when he did. The Republican legislature passed an education bill that would have eliminated tenure for teachers, basing their job security on the standardized testing scores of students (theres a lot of problems with that and I could explain my reasoning but that is not for this site.) Crist vetoed this bill, thus the teachers unions endorsed him (the bill was also very unpopular among the majority in the state)
Scott has also proposed enacting an Arizona-style immigration bill in FL. This would hurt the already suffering strawberry and orange farmers. Though I don’t think the bill would pass because of the Cuban influence in the Republican caucus, I wouldn’t put it past them.
Scott also would pass the abortion bill Crist vetoed the week he became an independent. The bill would have required women to have an ultrasound before they perform the abortion, and I believe also require a talk with a psychiatrist. (Not going to argue about my feelings and reasons for being against this either)
Not to mention Scott has proposed cutting state jobs, and wants to reinstate the ban on gay adoption that was recently lifted (I’m sure GOP AG candidate Pam Bondi would enjoy helping him.) Theres a lot of other initiatives I could list that Republicans are salivating at being able to pass with Scott as governor.
I hope some of you can also see why a lot of Dems are voting Crist. For me, it was a thank you for vetoing the education bill, pushing for offshore drilling constitutional ban, supporting gay adoption, veto of abortion bill and not cutting state jobs. Many of my Dem and Ind friends feel the same, and we’re glad he governed from the middle.
So yes, Sink being elected means A LOT for the future of this state, not just national politics. Scott = irreversable policy disaster for Florida.
I don’t mind people changing positions and bucking the party line more than other people, but just a few months ago he was trying to make the case that he was more conservative than Rubio!
He acts like he’s constantly been pro-choice, against tort reform, against major Social Security changes, against capital punishment, etc. The man insults pro-choice people by saying “I’m personally against abortion so that makes me pro-life, but I’m against appealing Roe versus Wade.” He is making pro-choice people sound like they are pro-abortion.
There is no one in the United States Congress who is pro-abortion, but if you take that pro-life, yet support Roe logic, you are saying that the other side must be pro-death.
Charlie Crist is a liar, not a man who changes positions as facts change, the man is a liar and he deserves to lose.
i have done a great deal of gotv and i can tell you there are folks holding off on voting early to see what meek does(not sure if crist can close the gap the whole way though); in the kosmas race(even though the district was created BY tom feeney, FOR tom feeney)the democrats are fully behind kosmas(which will help alex sink a great deal)but it is just such an extremely hard district for any democrat(however, the republican sandy adams has made some gaffes, not sure if they will change many votes though)
I haven’t read through this thread, but I need to get something off my chest.
I am livid about this idea that somehow Meek doesn’t deserve to stay in the race. Putting strategic politicking aside, let’s make one thing clear: Meek WON his primary; he played by the rules; he earned and deserves his party’s nomination. If anyone deserves to be asked to step down it is Crist, who lost his primary.
Strategically, sure, it’d be nice if Meek had gotten out, but I will not begrudge the man for staying in. I’d like to see Murkowski and Crist win if it means keeping out the tea party, but I also feel that neither of them deserves their prominence in their respective races.
I’m too depressed to post them. Russ can ponder whether he should have accepted DSCC money on November 3rd, he’ll have plenty of time.
Urgh.
a general observation Alvin Greene may end up getting more votes that Kendrick Meek. Wouldn’t that be something?
Two words and a number: Jeb Bush 2000
Much better organized campaign of Harold Ford in much better year of 2006 (and under much more conservative slogans, BTW) in only slightly more difficult Tennessee was ultimately unsuccessfull, and he narrowly lost to Bob Corker. But, at least, he had real chance. Meeks from the beginning had no chances against either Rubio or Crist, led in no poll i can remeber, and so on. Well, he played a role of spoiler – usual role im such situation. If, as some say, his campaign will help Sink (especially if she wins: as i said many times – winning is the only thing that is of interest in any campaign for me, and i give an extremely little value to unwinnable campaigns) – thanks, God! If not – one more missed opportunity.
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol…
To me, that explains the reaction:
While it’d be nice to have that Senate seat, a Meek dropout now would certainly take some substantial number of base D voters with him — especially under these circumstances.
I’ve wavered back and forth on whether or not I thought Meek should drop out. I bought the “keeping Meek on the ballot will bring out black voters” view, but now I’m starting to think otherwise.
How well is Meek known by the electorate? Is he even known in his own Congressional district? He’s been a perfect example of a “back bencher” in the House.
It’s also hard to believe that these supposed “hardcore Democrats” will not turn out because Meek drops out. If they’re so hardcore, they’d turn out for Sink either way.
Finally, why Meek and not Crist? Well, Crist isn’t the one lagging behind in third place with barely breaking double digits. Crist actually has a chance.
Meek mentioned that Clinton endorsement quite a bit when it fist happened, but now that one of his main supporters doesn’t even want him in the race, that should tell him something.
There was plenty of time for Meek to look at the polls, realize he had no shot, and drop out. Instead, he’d prefer to stay in, thereby helping Marco Rubio become the next Senator from FL.