SSP Daily Digests: 10/29 (Morning Edition)

Hope your index fingers are rested up, because you’re going to have to do some intense clicking today.

  • CA-Gov
  • CO-Gov
  • CT-Sen
  • CT-Gov (PDF)
  • CT-01
  • CT-02
  • CT-03
  • DE-Sen
  • FL-25
  • GA-08
  • IN-02
  • KY-Sen (Braun)
  • KY-Sen (SUSA)
  • MD-Sen
  • ME-Gov (PDF)
  • MI-Gov
  • MI-07
  • MN-Gov
  • NC-02
  • ND-AL
  • NJ-12 (PDF)
  • NY-23 (PDF)
  • PA-Sen
  • PA-Gov
  • PA-10
  • PA-11
  • RI-Gov
  • RI-01
  • VA-05

    • 412 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digests: 10/29 (Morning Edition)”

    1. …according to their latest tweet in response to someone else.  Not sure if they are in the field with either, yet or just conjecture based on his last poll that showed Washingtoners interested in a GOP congress.

    4. What has happened to Malloy?  I know he was never up that much to being with, but why in the world is he losing ground to a garbage candidate like Foley?

    6. Day 13 of early vote unlucky 4 GOP: Dems have turnout %age lead for 1st time Thursday in Clark County, now lead by 20,000 votes. Blog soon.

      I’ll let our panel of Nevada experts take it from here.

      Come on, Harry!!!

    7. I know house polls are never terribly reliable, but whats with the lack of any polling on Ohio’s competitive house races. I realize OH-1 and probably 15 are lost, but both sides seem to think they still have a shot in 16 and OH-6 seems like its slipped under the radar.

      I’d also rest easier with hard data showing Ganley down in the wake of his sex scandal.

    8. Do we read Perriello’s 8 point deficit in SUSA’s last poll as really good news or not? Finally, it seems that SUSA doesn’t have crazy methodology (Perriello is leading 18-34s by 8, which seems low but possible), but then again, SUSA also showed him down by 33 when his internals had him down in single-digits.

      This race is really the only on on the ballot in Virginia (no state elections, no senate elections, no pres), so it really is all about GOTV and base turnout. Hopefully Obama’s visit can help turnout the base area of Charlottesville especially among young voters, while African Americans in the rest of the district turnout in stronger numbers than previous mid-terms (they are, at least according to the early vote)

    12. It’s based on a sample of 48% R, 43% D — so, yes, if more Republicans vote than Democrats, Toomey will win.  Duh.  That’s not going to happen.

    15. On the last day of filing to be a write-in candidate over 100 people signed on to be write-in candidates.  Conservative radio host Dan Fagan pushed his listeners to do it in hopes of confusing write-in voters.  If lists are handed out, there will be a list of 118 candidates listed alphabetically.

      Here is the list of all candidates – http://www.elections.alaska.go…

      Now many that could be confused for Murkowski.  There is a “Lee Hamerski” but I wonder if that person is real.  Also a “Lisa M. Lackey” another I doubt really exists. I suspect these two will be used for any spelling error challenges.  

      I still think Miller has to be the favorite, given he in on the ballot and has the [R] after his name.  I think usual Dem voters who vote strategically for Murkowski will end up giving Miller the win, splitting the vote from McAdams.  If Scott got the usual 35+ that any Dem candidate usually gets, he’d probably win.  

    16. This cycle —

      SurveyUSA has a R+4.0 house effect

      Rasmussen has a R+2.1 house effect

      If I’m reading Nate’s charts correctly Rasmussen has run 1200 polls this cycle….

      SurveyUSA is second at 120 polls.

      In addition, if I’m reading this right, Nate does make adjustments to poll numbers:

      The other tricky bit is in figuring out what the “right” answer should be. For instance, say that Rasmussen Reports polls are 5 points more favorable to Republicans, on average, than polls from Siena College. Do we adjust the Rasmussen polls to match the Siena ones, or the other way around? The answer, of course, is somewhere in between.

      (para split for readability)

      Specifically, we calculate a weighted average from all the polling firms in our universe, where the weights are based mostly on pollster quality. The idea is to estimate what our polling average would show in a particular state or district if every polling firm in our universe conducted an infinite number of polls there.

    22. a slow moving hurricane coming toward me but I cannot do anything about it.  As I said before, this is surreal.  Yes, I remember 1994 and the federal government shutdown because Newt did not get peanut M&M’s on Air Force One.  

      But I venture to say that this group is even worse than Newt and his group were back then (Newt has redifined himself for the times it seems). This group seem like anarchist. I have never seen people get elected with no plan but to stop the other guy.  WOW!

    26. Man, that’s really rough. Is the cycle really that bad that Democrats have trouble winning in Rhode Island? Anyone know the scoop on this pollster, 10-Quest Research?

    32. you could have run a well-financed, mangy dog as long as it was a Republican, it would win.  Like I said, this has got to be the weirdest campaign season ever.

    36. I think you answered your own question.

      Be nice if someone did an investigation of this.  The money, his ability to flood the zone, his connection to Faux and the rest of the right wing echo chamber, and his super loaded issue questions.

    40. CT-04: Debicella 48, Himes 46

      CT-05:  Caliguri 47, Murphy 46

      This is from the same set of polls that found Blumental up by 8, Malloy and Foley tied, and the Democrats in the other three seats up by 20 or so points each. Seems a little R-friendly overall, but it shows that these races are still close.

      Also, unrelated CT note: I just realized that Dan Malloy’s first name is not Daniel, but Dannel. Unique, eh?

    42. Can I just say?

      Save me from the circular firing squads…Sometimes, I swear that I hate being a Democrat for that reason.  When they lose, Republicans blame the electorate and run to the right. The media does not tell them to moderate at all.  

      When Democrats don’t win, we blame each other.  Obama didn’t save us…Nancy was too mean…Harry was too timid…We were too Liberal…We were not Liberal enough…

      I am telling you people that it is just not cute. STOP. IT. I mean really.  I am depressed as anyone but I am not going to blame any other Democrat for it.

      We lost before and we came back.  We can do it again.    

    43. I don’t know why you even bothered posting that MI-07 poll.  It’s so ridiculous as to be offensive, as if they purposefully tacked the wrong name to the wrong number.  No one in the entire state believes it.

    44. An interesting disclosure, in their cell phone calling SUSA found Kithaboer up by 15 points on their cell calls and only 4 points on their landline calls. Even more telling, Kitzhaber led by 11 among those who had already voted.

      The same poll found Wyden over Huffman 57 to 32.

      The poll was commissioned by KATU and relased at 4 pm Friday.

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