StephenCLE’s 2010 Final Election Predictions

Welcome everybody, this is StephenCLE’s 2010 Election Predictions – Final Edition!!

After 8 long months of analysis and prognostication, we’ve finally reached the end of the road.  As most of you know already it’s rather stormy out for us this year, and many of these final calls will reflect that.  However, I will preface this update with two key pieces of information.

1.We’ve seen many more republican polls this cycle than democratic, and most independent polling has been conducted with likely voter screens that are likely to exclude many democratic base voters.

2.Most of the polling we’ve seen yesterday and today were conducted over Halloween weekend, thus amplifying the normal bullshit that spews out from campaigns in the final days before the election.

What those two things mean is that I have made up my mind on most of these calls from at least a week or so ago, as I think you can get burned by looking at the very late news and polls, especially when you have so much early voting going on this day and age.  Those two things being said, tomorrow night is still shaping up to be a strong night for the GOP.  I’ll take you through my predictions, starting with the Senate and the Governors races before getting to the heavy meat of the House last.  All democrats are listed on the left of the column, republicans on the right, with pickups in bold a la Spiderdem’s posts earlier today.  3…2…1…GO!

The Final Senate Map:

Final Senate Predictions 2010 –

Alaska – McAdams 29 – Miller 32 – Murkowski 37

Alabama – Barnes 29 – Shelby 70

Arkansas – Lincoln 40 – Boozman 58

Arizona – Glassman 36 – McCain 63

California – Boxer 51 – Fiorina 46

Colorado – Bennet 50 – Buck 48

Connecticut – Blumenthal 55 – McMahon 42

Delaware – Coons 57 – Odonnell 41

Florida – Meek 24 – Rubio 44 – Crist 30

Georgia – Thurmond 40 – Isakson 57

Hawaii – Inouye 65 – Cavasso 33

Iowa – Conlin 38 – Grassley 61

Idaho – Sullivan 25 – Crapo 73

Illinois – Giannoulias 46 – Kirk 48

Indiana – Ellsworth 45 – Coats 54

Kansas – Johnston 35 – Moran 64

Kentucky – Conway 46 – Paul 52

Louisiana – Melancon 43 – Vitter 55

Maryland – Mikulski 57 – Wargotz 39

Missouri – Carnahan 46 – Blunt 53

North Carolina – Marshall 44 – Burr 54

North Dakota – Potter 27 – Hoeven 72

New Hampshire – Hodes 43 – Ayotte 54

Nevada – Reid 46 – Angle 47

New York – Schumer 64 – Townsend 34

New York-B – Gillibrand 60 – Dioguardi 39

Ohio – Fisher 42 – Portman 57

Oklahoma – Rogers 24 – Coburn 73

Oregon – Wyden 55 – Huffman 43

Pennsylvania – Sestak 49 – Toomey 48

South Carolina – Greene 22 – Demint 76

South Dakota – Thune unopposed

Utah – Granato 37 – Lee 62

Vermont – Leahy 64 – Britton 34

Washington – Murray 52 – Rossi 47

Wisconsin – Feingold 46 – Johnson 52

West Virginia – Manchin 51 – Raese 47

Old Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Commentary:  Here’s my take on the Senate.  The range for the democrats is between 51 and 55 in my opinion.  I think Kentucky and Missouri are off the board, those were the best shots for a pickup throughout most of the cycle.  Alaska is kinda out there still, but I’d be stunned if McAdams somehow pulled it out over Murkowski and Miller.  With no pickups to be had, it’s a matter of counting up the seats for the GOP.   The Republicans are almost certain to pick up 4 seats, North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Wisconsin, although the last of those four isn’t totally gone.  Then you have 4 seats that are truly competitive, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.  Colorado is a total coin flip, it’s a swing state with two fairly unknown quantities for candidates.  The fact that Buck hasn’t been able to get any separation from Bennet tells me that the late democratic ground game will probably put him over the line.  Nevada looks bad according to the public polls, but the news from the ground there seems to contradict the polls.  Ultimately, I think that Reid’s huge unpopularity, unfortunately, will be such that Angle will just barely win it in a race that could end up going to a recount.  The same theme plays out in Illinois, a normally blue state but where Alexi Giannoulias is just a horrible candidate.  In the end, Kirk I’m fairly certain will clean up big with independents and get just enough democrats to cross the aisle to get him a victory.  The last race is perhaps the most intriguing.  Pat Toomey has led the whole campaign, but he’s stumbled big time lately as Joe Sestak has pushed hard for the finish like he did in the primary.  What I think is fishy in most public polling recently is that supposedly, Toomey has kept ahead by 2-3 points all the while Dan Onorato keeps gaining on the once unassailable Tom Corbett.  That doesn’t compute.  Maybe it’s a bit of a gutsy call, but I think the strong democratic ground game and some consistently bad polling in favor of Toomey will result in Sestak just barely pulling this one out, another recount-worthy race

The Final Governors Map:

Final Governor Predictions 2010 –

Alaska – Berkowitz 40 – Parnell 57

Alabama – Sparks 38 – Bentley 60

Arkansas – Beebe 60 – Keet 37

Arizona – Goddard 46 – Brewer 53

California – Brown 53 – Whitman 44

Colorado – Hickenlooper 52 – Maes 8 – Tancredo 40

Connecticut – Malloy 50 – Foley 47

Florida – Sink 50 – Scott 48

Georgia – Barnes 45 – Deal 53

Hawaii – Abercrombie 56 – Aiona 43

Iowa – Culver 43 – Branstad 55

Idaho – Allred 34 – Otter 64

Illinois – Quinn 44 – Brady 46

Kansas – Holland 36 – Brownback 63

Massachusetts – Patrick 47 – Baker 42 – Cahill 9

Maryland – O’Malley 55 – Ehrlich 44

Maine – Mitchell 23 – LePage 40 – Cutler 35

Michigan – Bernero 43 – Snyder 56

Minnesota – Dayton 44 – Emmer 38 – Horner 16

Nebraska – Meister 27 – Heineman 72

New Hampshire – Lynch 57 – Stephen 42

New Mexico – Denish 46 – Martinez 52

Nevada – Reid 41 – Sandoval 56

New York – Cuomo 62 – Paladino 35

Ohio – Strickland 49 – Kasich 48

Oklahoma – Askins 36 – Fallin 62

Oregon – Kitzhaber 50 – Dudley 46

Pennsylvania – Onorato 45 – Corbett 53

Rhode Island – Caprio 29 – Robataille 30 – Chafee 38

South Carolina – Sheheen 46 – Haley 53

South Dakota – Heidepriem 38 – Daugaard 60

Tennessee – McWherter 35 – Haslam 64

Texas – White 47 – Perry 52

Utah – Corroon 32 – Herbert 66

Vermont – Shumlin 52 – Dubie 46

Wisconsin – Barrett 46 – Walker 53

Wyoming – Peterson 29 – Mead 70

Old Governors – 26 Democrats, 24 Republicans

New Governors – 21 Democrats, 28 Republicans, 1 Independent

Swing – Republicans +4.5

The governors races are sleepy for the most part, a lot of small states like Wyoming, Maine, Kansas, Vermont, and Hawaii changing hands.  But what isn’t sleepy is that the balance of power here will swing in the republican direction somewhat.  They will pick up a few bigger states, like Pennsylvania, which could give them total control of redistricting there.  Michigan will be a nice win for them as well, and will stop a potential democratic gerrymander there.  The Midwest seems to be their main proving ground, as Wisconsin and Iowa are almost surely to turn red as well.  Two big Midwestern states are up for grabs as well.  In Illinois, it’s down to the wire between Pat Quinn and Bill Brady.  Ultimately I think Brady wins here, possibly due to the presence of democrat turned independent Scott Lee Cohen.  It’ll be a close one.  Ohio meanwhile, is one of the two biggest prizes in the governors scene this cycle, and it’s a pure toss up between Ted Strickland and John Kasich.  Seeing what I’m seeing on the ground here in Ohio, I think it’s possibly headed to a recount, and I think the democratic strength in the ground game will barely get Strickland over the line.  A similar scene I think will play out in Florida, where Alex Sink will pull out a tight one against Rick Scott due to Scott’s general yuckiness.  These are the two most important results of the night as they will stop gerrymanders in Florida and Ohio.  The nature of the cycle will save another unlikeable big-state governor, Rick Perry of Texas.  I think Bill White overperforms the polls a bit but cannot pull out the win.  Meanwhile in California, Jerry Brown will comfortably win over Meg Whitman.  So the big states don’t look too bad on paper, but Florida and Ohio will determine the narrative.

The Final House Map:

Final House Predictions 2010 – (these are all races that were in the likely D, lean D, toss up, lean R, or likely R column, ie: on the board, obviously I don’t think any safe D or safe R seats are turning over)

Alabama-2 – Bright 50 – Roby 49

Alabama-5 – Raby 44 – Brooks 55

Arizona-1 – Kirkpatrick 46 – Gosar 53

Arizona-3 – Hulburd 47 – Quayle 51

Arizona-5 – Mitchell 48 – Schweikert 51

Arizona-7 – Grijalva 55 – McClung 44

Arizona-8 – Giffords 53 – Kelly 46

Arkansas-1 – Causey 47 – Crawford 52

Arkansas-2 – Elliott 42 – Griffin 56

Arkansas-4 – Ross 55 – Rankin 43

California-11 – McNerney 49 – Harmer 50

California-18 – Cardoza 53 – Berryhill 46

California-20 – Costa 51 – Vidak 48

California-3 – Bera 47 – Lungren 52

California-44 – Hedrick 46 – Calvert 52

California-45 – Pougnet 46 – Bono Mack 53

California-47 – Sanchez 51 – Tran 47

Colorado-3 – Salazar 49 – Tipton 50

Colorado-4 – Markey 45 – Gardner 54

Colorado-7 – Frazier 48 – Perlmutter 51

Connecticut-4 – Debicella 46 – Himes 53

Connecticut-5 – Caligiuri 47 – Murphy 52

Delaware-1 – Carney 56 – Urquhart 43

Florida-12 – Edwards 48 – Ross 51

Florida-2 – Boyd 42 – Southerland 56

Florida-22 – Klein 49 – West 50

Florida-24  – Kosmas 45 – Adams 53

Florida-25 – Garcia 50 – Rivera 49

Florida-8 – Grayson 46 – Webster 52

Georgia-12 – Barrow 55 – McKinney 44

Georgia-2 – Bishop 48 – Keown 51

Georgia-8 – Marshall 45 – Scott 54

Hawaii-1 – Hanabusa 53 – Djou 46

Idaho-1 – Minnick 51 – Labrador 48

Illinois-10 – Seals 52 – Dold 46

Illinois-11 – Halvorson 41 – Kinzinger 57

Illinois-12 – Costello 56 – Newman 43

Illinois-14 – Foster 49 – Hultgren 50

Illinois-17 – Hare 48 – Schilling 50

Indiana-2 – Donnelly 54 – Walorski 45

Indiana-8 – Van Haaften 44 – Bucshon 55

Indiana-9 – Hill 50 – Young 49

Iowa-1 – Braley 54 – Lange 45

Iowa-2 – Loebsack 53 – Miller-Meeks 46

Iowa-3 – Boswell 50 – Zaun 48

Kansas-3 – Moore 47 – Yoder 52

Kansas-4 – Goyle 45 – Pompeo 54

Kentucky-6 – Chandler 51 – Barr 48

Louisiana-2 – Richmond 61 – Cao 38

Louisiana-3 – Sangisetty 40 – Landry 58

Maine-1 – Pingree 51 – Scontras 48

Maryland-1 – Kratovil 47 – Harris 51

Massachusetts-10 – Keating 52 – Perry 47

Michigan-1 – McDowell 46 – Benishek 52

Michigan-7 – Schauer 52 – Walberg 46

Michigan-9 – Peters 51 – Raczkowski 48

Minnesota-1 – Walz 52 – Demmer 47

Minnesota-6 – Clark 46 – Bachmann 53

Minnesota-8 – Oberstar 52 – Cravaack 46

Mississippi-1 – Childers 47 – Nunnelee 51

Mississippi-4 – Taylor 49 – Palazzo 50

Missouri-4 – Skelton 50 – Hartzler 48

Nebraska-2 – White 44 – Terry 54

Nevada-3 – Titus 48 – Heck 51

New Hampshire-1 – Shea-Porter 46 – Guinta 52

New Hampshire-2 – Kuster 50 – Bass 49

New Jersey-12 – Holt 52 – Sipprelle 47

New Jersey-3 – Adler 48 – Runyan 51

New Jersey-6 – Pallone 53 – Little 45

New Mexico-1 – Heinrich 51 – Barela 47

New Mexico-2 – Teague 48 – Pearce 50

New Mexico-3 – Lujan 53 – Mullins 45

New York-1 – Bishop 54 – Altschuler 45

New York-13 – McMahon 51 – Grimm 47

New York-19 – Hall 48 – Hayworth 51

New York-20 – Murphy 50 – Gibson 49

New York-22 – Hinchey 54 – Phillips 45

New York-23 – Owens 48 – Doheny 50

New York-25 – Maffei 55 – Buerkle 44

New York-29 – Zeller 42 – Reed 56

North Carolina-11 – Shuler 54 – Miller 45

North Carolina-2 – Etheridge 51 – Ellmers 48

North Carolina-7 – McIntyre 50 – Pantano 48

North Carolina-8 – Kissell 47 – Johnson 51

North Dakota-1 – Pomeroy 47 – Berg 52

Ohio-1 – Driehaus 45 – Chabot 54

Ohio-6 – Wilson 53 – Johnson 45

Ohio-10 – Kucinich 55 – Corrigan 44

Ohio-12 – Brooks 43 – Tiberi 55

Ohio-13 – Sutton 54 – Ganley 45

Ohio-15 – Kilroy 47 – Stivers 51

Ohio-16 – Boccieri 50 – Renacci 49

Ohio-18 – Space 51 – Gibbs 47

Oregon-5 – Schrader 50 – Bruun 48

Pennsylvania-10 – Carney 49 – Marino 50

Pennsylvania-11 – Kanjorski 51 – Barletta 48

Pennsylvania-12 – Critz 52 – Burns 47

Pennsylvania-15 – Callahan 45 – Dent 54

Pennsylvania-17 – Holden 56 – Argall 42

Pennsylvania-3 – Dahlkemper 44 – Kelly 55

Pennsylvania-4 – Altmire 53 – Rothfus 45

Pennsylvania-6 – Trivedi 43 – Gerlach 55

Pennsylvania-7 – Lentz 49 – Meehan 50

Pennsylvania-8 – Murphy 50 – Fitzpatrick 49

South Carolina-2 – Miller 44 – Wilson 54

South Carolina-5 – Spratt 46 – Mulvaney 53

South Dakota-1 – Herseth 51 – Noem 48

Tennessee-4 – Davis 48 – Dejarlais 50

Tennessee-6 – Carter 37 – Black 62

Tennessee-8 – Herron 45 – Fincher 54

Texas-17 – Edwards 45 – Flores 53

Texas-23 – Rodriguez 48 – Canseco 51

Texas-27 – Ortiz 53 – Farenthold 45

Utah-2 – Matheson 55 – Philpot 44

Virginia-1 – Ball 43 – Wittman 56

Virginia-11 – Connolly 51 – Fimian 48

Virginia-2 – Nye 47 – Rigell 51

Virginia-5 – Perriello 46 – Hurt 52

Virginia-9 – Boucher 50 – Griffith 48

Washington-2 – Larsen 51 – Koster 48

Washington-3 – Heck 45 – Herrera 53

Washington-8 – Delbene 49 – Reichert 50

Washington-9 – Smith 53 – Muri 46

West Virginia-1 – Oliverio 48 – McKinley 50

Wisconsin-3 – Kind 52 – Kapanke 47

Wisconsin-7 – Lassa 47 – Duffy 51

Wisconsin-8 – Kagen 48 – Ribble 50

Old House – Democrats 256 – Republicans 179

New House – Democrats 213 – Republicans 222

Swing – Republicans +43

The House I think is still going to be a close fight, but going through all the seats, I now think it’s likely that the Republicans will be able to muster a small majority at the end of the night, picking up 48 seats and dropping 5 for a net gain of 43.  The south is where the bottom is clearly falling out on team blue, and it shows from the generic ballot readings in that region, which will cause incumbents like Lincoln Davis and Sanford Bishop to go down.  I even think Gene Taylor will get his walking papers as well, though a few others like Bobby Bright and Rick Boucher will survive.  Arkansas & Tennessee in particular are going to be a bloodbath, Florida doesn’t look much better with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson, and Suzanne Kosmas going down, although Joe Garcia will pull it out in FL-25.  The Northeast region doesn’t look too bad, though the recent polls in Connecticut and New York are a bit disconcerting.  I have the Democrats dropping 3 seats in New York, and 3 more in Pennsylvania.  PA is tough because there are so many close seats, I actually pulled back Paul Kanjorski but Chris Carney and Kathy Dahlkemper will still go down.  The open seat in PA-7 between Meehan and Lentz is going to be a major tell as to who will win the House at the end of the night.  Another key seat is going to be OH-16, where John Boccieri faces Jim Renacci.  The Midwest looks to be tough on the whole, but not as tough as the southeast.  I have 2 seats dropping in Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio, while Illinois drops three but gains back one in IL-10.  Farther out west, Colorado looks tough, as I have Betsy Markey and John Salazar going down.  In Texas, Ciro Rodriguez’s race looks like it could be a race that decides the House majority, I have him losing narrowly while Chet Edwards gets walloped.  Arizona is a very interesting state, I have Harry Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick losing, though the Dems could get AZ-3 or lose AZ-7 and AZ-8 on a bad night.  The west coast is mostly sleepy, I only expect one seat to change in California and one in Washington.  The most interesting races here could be Walt Minnick’s race in ID-1 and Colleen Hanabusa’s in HI-1, I have both winning.  In the end, a valiant effort by the House Dems that comes up just short.