Analysis of the results since my prediction

I feel not very bad after all. Maybe because I’m a positive person what find always the good part of the situation.

They are some results what touch my mind. But they are not very much:

FIRST LEVEL:

Turn me off

WI-ST D Sass

MN-08 J Oberstar

IL-10 D Seals

NH-02 A Kuster

and if the democratic candidates lose, OR-Gov J Kitzhaber, WA-02 R Larsen and NY-25 D Maffei would be in this group too.

Turn me on

—

SECOND LEVEL (little less surprise):

Turn me off

IL-Sen A Giannoulias

IA-SS M Mauro

VT-SA D Hoffer

Turn me on

IL-Gov P Quinn

IL-LG S Simon

NY-23 W Owens

SENATE

My prediction works not bad in this level. I tell 5 but finally can be 6 seats because WA seems to go by the right way.

Illinois is the state where I fail. And it is sad lose this seat because I think we lose cause of have not the strongest candidate.

R Feingold and J Sestak finally lose and this is an important coup to the democrats from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They can not keep the seats despite they run with their best but the year was too bad for it. Still, I think both can return in a better year.

Sometimes I tell M Beeve would be the candidate what can keep the seat in Arkansas this year, but I have to admit that the challenge was hard. I think E Bayh would not keep his seat against the more prominent republicans from his home state.

This was my last prediction:

Republican gains = 5

ND-Sen (- 45.00%)

IN-Sen (- 18.25%)

AR-Sen (- 16.00%) B Lincoln

WI-Sen (- 05.50%) R Feingold

PA-Sen (- 03.25%)

Democratic gains = 0

—

Other interesting races in single digits

KY-Sen (- 08.75%)

MO-Sen (- 07.25%)

AK-Sen (- 04.75%)

CO-Sen (+ 00.75%) M Bennet

NV-Sen (+ 01.00%) H Reid

IL-Sen (+ 02.50%) A Giannoulias

WV-Sen (+ 03.50%) J Manchin

WA-Sen (+ 04.00%) P Murray

CA-Sen (+ 08.50%) B Boxer

CT-Sen (+ 09.00%) R Blumenthal

The percentage is for McAdams under the first republican. My numbers gives Murkowsky leading still, Miller – 00.75% and McAdams – 4.75%.

GOVERNOR

Still can be too early for talk about the gubernatorial races, but it would be a pretty good result if we can keep the gubernatorial race in Oregon, winning too Illinois, Minnesota and Connecticut. If someone of these races goes to the republican side will be a disappointing moment for me.

I’m so happy of be wrong about P Quinn in the gubernatorial election of Illinois. Just this was one of the surprises with higher power for turn me on.

I would like L Chafee join the democratic team fast. The people back him and they are not reasons for continue as independent in one of the bluest states. RI-Gov must be a new gain for the democrats.

My last prediction was:

Republican gains = 13

WY-Gov (- 32.33%)

KS-Gov (- 31.00%)

TN-Gov (- 25.75%)

MI-Gov (- 15.75%)

OK-Gov (- 14.75%)

IA-Gov (- 11.25%) C Culver

ME-Gov (- 09.25%)

NM-Gov (- 07.75%)

PA-Gov (- 07.25%)

WI-Gov (- 06.00%)

IL-Gov (- 04.75%) P Quinn

OH-Gov (- 03.00%) T Strickland

FL-Gov (- 00.25%) (republican gain from Independents)

“Democratic” gains = 5 + 1

CT-Gov (= 00.00%) D Malloy

VT-Gov (+ 02.33%) P Shumlin

HI-Gov (+ 04.25%) N Abercrombie

MN-Gov (+ 05.00%) M Dayton

CA-Gov (+ 06.75%) J Brown

RI-Gov (+ 08.50%) L Chafee (Ind) (over Robitaille)

Other interesting races in single digits

AZ-Gov (- 09.25%)

GA-Gov (- 08.00%)

SC-Gov (- 07.50%)

OR-Gov (+ 02.75%) J Kitzhaber

CO-Gov (+ 05.00%) J Hickenlooper

MA-Gov (+ 06.25%) D Patrick

HOUSE

Here my numbers give the worst results with difference. I was right about the seats what I give as republican gains or retentions except for NY-23, HI-01 and maybe VA-11, but my numbers tell what the democratic side would keep other seats what finally lose.

Like for all the groups I bold emphasize the races where my numbers fail. Still they are more what I include not in the list because my numbers give high single digits of advantage to the incumbent party. I talk explicitly about AL-02 in my prediction but they are more like ID-01, NY-13, NY-24, VA-09 and MN-08. Maybe NY-25 too.

Some house races are without call still but I take the leading candidate as favored for this analysis.

Just MN-08 gives one of the results what I take worse with IL-10 and NH-02. Minnesota appears as an easy state by many months and we can see in the final results a strong enthusiasm gap.

This was my last prediction for this group:

Republican gains = 45

TN-06 (<- 10.00%) (double digits for the republican)

KS-03 (<- 10.00%)

LA-03 (<- 10.00%)

IN-08 (- 18.50%)

FL-02 (- 16.50%) A Boyd

NY-29 (- 15.50%)

AR-02 (- 14.25%)

TN-08 (- 11.50%)

GA-08 (- 10.75%) J Marshall

IL-11 (- 10.75%) D Halvorson

TX-17 (- 10.25%) C Edwards

PA-03 (- 10.25%) K Dahlkemper

NH-01 (- 10.00%) C Shea-Porter

OH-16 (- 09.67%) J Boccieri

OH-01 (- 09.00%) S Driehaus

WI-08 (- 08.00%) S Kagen

OH-15 (- 07.75%) M Kilroy

WA-03 (- 07.50%)

WI-07 (- 07.50%)

PA-07 (- 07.25%)

FL-24 (- 06.67%) S Kosmas

VA-02 (- 06.25%) G Nye

MI-01 (- 06.00%)

CO-04 (- 04.67%) B Markey

MS-01 (- 04.50%) T Childers

MD-01 (- 04.50%) F Kratovil

VA-05 (- 04.50%) T Perriello

CO-03 (- 04.50%) J Salazar

NM-02 (- 04.25%) H Teague

FL-08 (- 04.25%) A Grayson

AR-01 (- 04.00%)

TX-27 (- 04.00%) S Ortiz

TX-23 (- 03.33%) C Rodriguez

PA-10 (- 02.75%) C Carney

IL-17 (- 02.25%) P Hare

NV-03 (- 02.00%) C Titus

NY-23 (- 01.75%) W Owens

NY-20 (- 01.50%) S Murphy

NJ-03 (- 01.00%) J Adler

VA-11 (- 01.00%) G Connolly

AZ-01 (- 00.75%) A Kirkpatrick

IL-14 (- 00.50%) W Foster

SC-05 (- 00.25%) J Spratt

PA-08 (- 00.25%) P Murphy

MI-07 (= 00.00%) M Schauer

Democratic gains = 4

FL-25 (+ 01.25%) J Garcia

IL-10 (+ 03.50%) D Seals

DE-AL (+ 12.00%) J Carney

LA-02 (+ 13.75%) C Richmond

Other interesting races in low single digits

AZ-03 (- 02.00%)

HI-01 (- 01.25%)

FL-12 (- 00.50%)

NY-19 (+ 00.25%) J Hall

OH-06 (+ 00.33%) C Wilson

MA-10 (+ 00.50%) W Keating

MI-09 (+ 00.67%) G Peeters

ND-AL (+ 01.00%) E Pomeroy

SD-AL (+ 01.00%) S Herseth-Sandlin

NC-02 (+ 01.00%) R Etheridge

CA-11 (+ 01.00%) G McNerney

OR-05 (+ 01.00%) K Schrader

CT-04 (+ 01.00%) J Himes

AZ-05 (+ 01.25%) H Mitchell

PA-12 (+ 01.25%) M Critz

PA-11 (+ 01.25%) P Kanjorski

CA-20 (+ 01.33%) J Costa

TN-04 (+ 02.50%) L Davis

IL-08 (+ 02.50%) M Bean

NH-02 (+ 02.50%) A Kuster

WA-02 (+ 02.50%) R Larsen

FL-22 (+ 03.00%) R Klein

CO-07 (+ 03.00%) E Perlmutter

GA-02 (+ 03.25%) S Bishop

MS-04 (+ 03.33%) G Taylor

IN-09 (+ 03.33%) B Hill

OH-13 (+ 03.50%) B Sutton

OH-18 (+ 04.00%) Z Space

AZ-08 (+ 04.00%) G Giffords

NM-01 (+ 04.25%) M Heinrich

WV-01 (+ 04.50%) M Oliverio

MO-04 (+ 05.00%) I Skelton

My numbers tell NC-07, AL-02 and NC-08 are in high single digits.

They are 25 races between 0 and -5 and 31 between 0 and +5. The majority in the House is still in play. It is time of fight hard until the last day.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

Here my point is so close with the gubernatorial races with few differences. As example, they are not Lieutenant Governor in Oregon. That mean I also feel not bad about this group.

My numbers again work so well in this group, but fail for AL-LG race, and maybe for IL-LG (running in the same ticket that the governor). J Folsom is affected by the wave like many house members running in R+ districts.

My last prediction for this group was:

Republican gains = 10

LA-LG (<- 10.00%)

KS-LG (- 31.00%)

MI-LG (- 15.75%)

OK-LG (- 12.00%)

IA-LG (- 11.25%) P Judge

NM-LG (- 07.75%)

WI-LG (- 06.00%)

IL-LG (- 04.75%)

OH-LG (- 03.00%)

AR-LG (- 02.33%)

Democratic gains = 4

CT-LG (= 00.00%) N Wyman

HI-LG (+ 04.25%) B Schatz

MN-LG (+ 05.00%) Y Prettner Solon

CA-LG (+ 06.50%) G Newsom

Other interesting races in single digits

PA-LG (- 07.25%)

VT-LG (- 05.00%)

SC-LG (- 04.00%)

FL-LG (- 00.25%)

MA-LG (+ 06.25%) T Murray

AL-LG (+ 06.33%) J Folsom

STATEWIDE OFFICES

This is the code for some statewide offices included in this box (quote):

AG=Attorney General

SS=Secretary of State

ST=State Treasurer

SC=State Comptroller

SA=State Auditor

IC=Insurance Commissioner

CL=Commissioner of Labor

For this group again my numbers work so well. I have 5 mistakes in my prediction. The biggest surprise is WI-ST, but this is a relative surprise looking to the other prospects and results for this state. Four close races (following my numbers) go finally to the republican side too, giving new gains to the republicans. They are IA-SS, VT-SA, OH-SS and SC-SE.

Republican gains = 25

AL-CAI (<- 10.00%) (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)

AR-CSL (- 24.00%) (Commissioner of State Lands)

KS-SS (- 22.67%) C Biggs

OK-AG (- 20.00%)

IL-SC (- 18.00%)

KS-ST (- 16.00%) D McKinney

GA-CA (- 16.00%)

OK-ST (- 14.00%)

KS-AG (- 12.33%) S Six

GA-AG (- 11.67%)

OK-CL (- 11.00%) L Fields

FL-CFO (- 09.00%) (Chief Financial Officer)

AZ-AG (- 08.75%)

NM-SS (- 08.00%) M Herrera

OK-SA (- 06.00%) S Burrage

OK-IC (- 06.00%) K Holland

CO-ST (- 06.00%) C Kennedy

IL-ST (- 05.67%)

CO-SS (- 04.33%) B Buescher

OH-AG (- 04.25%) R Cordray

AR-SS (- 04.00%)

OK-SPI (- 03.00%) (Superintendent of Public Instruction)

MO-SA (- 03.00%) S Montee

OH-ST (- 00.25%) K Boyce

GA-CL (= 00.00%)

Democratic gains = 3

VT-SA (= 00.00%) D Hoffer

CA-IC (+ 17.00%) D Jones

NM-CPL (>+ 10.00%) (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell

Other interesting races in low single digits

OH-SA (- 02.50%)

IA-SS (+ 01.00%) M Mauro

CA-AG (+ 01.50%) K Harris

NV-SC (+ 01.75%) K Marshall

OH-SS (+ 02.00%) M O’Shaughnessy

DE-ST (+ 02.00%) C Flowers

SC-SE (+ 03.00%) (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman

MA-SA (+ 04.25%) S Bump

I bold emphasize the races where my numbers give not the right winner. For four of the five goups (Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Statewide Offices) my numbers give so good numbers. For some hundreds of offices, I fail for 9 (waiting still for OR-Gov). They are:

IL-Sen

IL-Gov

IL-LG

AL-LG

WI-ST

IA-SS

VT-SA

OH-SS

SC-SE

I think this is a good result for my prediction. I’m happy cause of it. My numbers work better as example than the numbers of Nate Silver where he has results (Senate, Governor and the majority of LG).

And I think the results in this four groups are not the bests, but well, are not as bad in the bluest states. In the red states, J Manchin and M Beeve are the alone democrats what can defeat to their republican challenger in a statewide election (the republicans have not candidate for AR-AG, AR-ST and AR-SA).

For the House, my numbers work worse. The balance between the seats was not bad. I give low margins to the big majority of the races where my numbers fail. But I must improve this.

When I give my first indications about the firewall for the last days, some people get surprised of see in my lists seats like TX-27 or VA-11, but something was right in my numbers.

My mistakes for the house come in the majority of cases from R+ districts. Here is a relation between the big majority of the offices where I fail. And that despite I use the same numbers for all the races of all the group of offices.

I think the attacks of the last days against Pelosi, Obama and the democratic agenda can fire back against all these candidates, many times the most conservative. Maybe many of they go too far turning off part of their democratic basis. J Marshall can be a good example

And I suspect that get out the last numbers because the house has less number of polls for every seat. Just GA-08 has many polls in the last days what show his decreasing prospects. But the polls change with less speed for other seats.

It is difficult for me to find other reason for this difference between my results for the house and for the other offices.