To no one’s surprise, Attorney General Jon Bruning tossed his hat into the ring for the 2012 U.S. Senate race.
Bruning’s announcement Friday came 19 hours after Gov. Dave Heineman, the state’s leading Republican, announced he would forgo a possible race to unseat U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson, the state’s leading Democrat.
Bruning, at a Capitol rotunda news conference, announced that he had formed an exploratory committee to solicit input from Nebraskans and raise campaign funds for the race. He said he could not envision a scenario in which he would not run.
“I want to run, and I’m ready to run,” the 41-year-old said. “Nebraska needs to replace Ben Nelson.”
Other Republicans considering the race are former AG Don Stenberg (who lost to Nelson by 2% in 2000, and was just elected as state treasurer this week), and, reportedly, ’06 mega-loser Pete Ricketts (!).
What kind of odds do you give the Benator?
The national environment is impossible to predict. Democratic vote won’t be suppressed in a Presidential year, and all those millions of Obama voters that stayed home Tuesday will come out in 2 years. Nelson has won state-wide in Nebraska 4 times in his career, including a drubbing victory last time around. People writing him off would be as big of a mistake as writing Beebee off because Arkansas is so conservative.
from the past election cycles its this: Anything can happen, and they often do. 2012 is a millenium from now and Nelson could still win.
If Heineman is an “A+” candidate, Bruning is an “A” candidate at worst. Young, charismatic, elected statewide three times now, and starts with a lot in the bank from his 2008 bid (he stepped aside for Johanns). Under the very best conditions, Nelson starts off as a “toss-up”.
It’s on-par with Arkansas from this past cycle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Nuff said
I imagine a lot of NE Republicans smell blood in the water after Nelson shot himself in the foot during his health care grandstanding. Maybe he’s announcing so early to try to scare off other challengers, but I bet a lot more people jump into this race.
Two years is a long time, but I think the odds are against Nelson unless he runs into a Sharron Angle-type candidate. Here’s hoping the NE GOP is just that dumb.
But after what just happened to Blanche Lincoln, you have to wonder if Nelson will just retire instead of suffering a likely defeat. You could say the same thing about John Ensign, although he starts with a better chance of winning than Nelson.
Nelson’s in trouble, but I don’t believe he’s a deadman walking. He should take a page from the Gray Davis/ Harry Reid book and work to influence the primary toward someone much less electable. He also should get Reid’s research team to unearth all the dirt they can on his opponents: Brunning has been AG long enough that he likely has some things he’s done that can be used against him.
Beyond that, Nelson needs to embrace any chance to reform the filibuster. Yes, this will weaken his leverage. But if he becomes another generic no vote instead of the make or break yes vote like he was so often, he’ll piss off his conservative constituents a lot less. Obviously this isn’t a perfect plan: voting no didn’t save Gene Taylor or Bright, and he will anger the base and open himself to a primary. Still, I believe that it os a much better situation than always being THE DECIDING VOTE.
Ultimatly Nelson, if he runs again, is the underdog, but I do think he can win if he does everything near-perfectly and gets a bit lucky.
Even if Obama cruises, I think any competent Reep should beat Nelson. There’s always the chance that the nominee will self-destruct between the primary and the general. I would not expect Bruning to lose to an insurgent in the primary. NE is overwhelmingly Republican, but it tends not to elect extremists at the state level.
Yes 2 years is a lifetime, but I still think its fair to say Nelson is a heavy underdog here.
Republican. Ben Nelson will be lucky to crack 40% this year. Also Ben Nelson will galvanize the Republicans to come out to vote him out dooming Obama’s chances of putting Omaha into play.
If it weren’t for the “Cornhusker kickback” Ben Nelson might have a shot. It is true that people like Orrin Hatch tried to pull something similar as well.
And there’s not a billionaire slef-funder involved.
Right now tis probably 50-50, but it could swing 49% in either direction in 2 years like everyone says.
The DSCC needs to be offense here early, since it will be very cheap early on. Nelson needs all the support he can get from EVERYONE.
DSCC needs to also be spending early in Nevada. Titus should be out there raising money for her Sen run right now too. That’s a race where we need to jump out in front as well.
2012 will certainly see more tangible evidence of economic recovery overall, though I have no idea how it will impact NE and NV individually. Hopefully it will be a less toxic environment for Dems overall regardless.
Obviously things could change and scandals could emerge. But assuming Bruning gets the nomination he’ll win.
Republicans will bring up the sausage making that got the HCR bill through the senate, and Nelson will probably not hold on.
Even in 2008, Obama lost Nebraska by 15 points. In this very red and very white state, higher turnout won’t help Democrats for federal office.
if Nelson is able to hold on, but then again who knows. The Republican party will paint him as a stooge for Obama nad in a state like Nebraska that will probably be a fairly effective campaign
Triage him now, avoid the hassle and embarrassment later.
Seriously, write him off. Sorry, Nebraska, but you guys should be focusing on Lee Terry anyway. Nelson’s DOA and I couldn’t care less after all his shenanigans.
Two years is an eternity in politics, but some things are hard to change. Nebraska is a red state and Nelson dicking around with the ‘corn husker kickback’ did him no favors with his own people. That will get brought up in ads for those who forget. Bruning is an attractive candidate and he’s putting down his marker to try and keep others out of the race. I’m sure he’s aware of what happened to other early favorites like Charlie Crist and Mike Castle, so he’ll take steps not to leave himself vulnerable to that. I suspect if Ben Nelson feels it’s hopeless a year from now, he’ll quietly bow out.
In Nebraska, Republicans compose of about 47-50% of the electorate; they’re about on-par with Democrats in Illinois and New York. So, for Nelson to win, he’ll need to siphon-off at least 20% of GOP-ers. The good news for Nelson is NE Independents tend to lean Democrat, but I have to imagine any competent Republican could win Indies, given Nelson’s apparent unpopularity. I mean, you’re probably looking at a voter model like…
R – 49%
D – 27%
I – 24%
Nelson – 12/86/42 = 39%
Generic R – 88/14/58 = 61%
Which, again, reiterates the point that it’s awfully reminiscent of Lincoln’s battle. Only in Nelson’s case, the electorate’s even more unfriendly to Democrats.
I don’t know why so many people assume that Nelson is not only DoA but is going to lose by Blanche Lincoln-like margins (Nelson won his senate seat when George Bush beat Al Gore by 30 points). Nelson will outperform Obama and Obama will easily outperform both Gore and Kerry if he wins re-election.
Honestly, writing Nelson off now is almost ridiculous.
No text.
Nelson would go down by 10 points. Of course, the election isn’t tomorrow. I dunno, could go either way. He’s shown himself to be a competent politician in a red state and in a neutral year I’d say he’s a tossup to win re-election. In a good year for us he’d even be favored.
of the state is located in Lincoln and Omaha. And if you include metro areas of these cities and others, it becomes even more clear how the population is clustered into small regions. As others have said, Obama could easily make a push here and win one Electoral vote like he did in 2008. He should do just that.
But more than that, the election is two years away. Whomever ends up heading the DSCC should sit down with Nelson at the start of the new year, ask him if he’s serious about running, and (a) if he is, start working on his campaign or (b) find a new candidate. Either way, if two months is a life time in politics, two years is light year. Have him start doing town halls or something else to improve his image. Or have the new candidate start making the rounds to get a jump on the Republican.