NY-01: Altschuler Says He Has the Lead After Recanvass

Ugh, please no:

Like @maghabepolitico said, Altschuler spox Rob Ryan is saying recanvass has Altschuler up 392 over Bishop in #ny01. No BOE confirmation.

That’s from the Twitter feed of Newsday reporter Reid Epstein. The pain continues…

UPDATE: Maggie Haberman has more:

There’s over 9,000 absentee ballots to be counted starting next week, but the Republican had been down by 3,400. …

A bit more: Apparently Altschuler’s team asked to have the machine votes impounded this morning. One veteran Long Island watcher writes in that the machines weren’t expected to be recanvassed until next week.

And a breakdown of the absentees:

   * Democrat: 3,563

   * Republican: 3,889

   * Independence: 292

   * Conservative: 240

   * Working Families: 12

   * Blank: 1,753

Additionally, 3,600 absentees have still yet to come in. (All must be postmarked by November 1, and military ballots have until November 24 to arrive at the Board of Election’s office.)

Later Update: Yikes, a Bishop aide is confirming that Altschuler now has the lead.

88 thoughts on “NY-01: Altschuler Says He Has the Lead After Recanvass”

  1. How do you erase a 3000 vote lead by recanvassing, and the district is all in one county?? WTF? That’s a change of more than a percentage point.

    This smells.

  2. seem to have had very small coattails, if any.

    Before Tuesday, who would have thought (presuming Buerkle and Altschuler prevail; both appear to be up in the air) that New York would have had the largest shift of house seats at GOP +7, with +8 likely prevented by Doug Hoffman.

    Just interesting considering that many, including myself, assumed that the Republican clowns atop the ticket would cost several close races there.

  5. Unlike Maffei-Buerkle, this one was called on Tuesday night, and reasonably early at that (before I went to bed at 2, for certain.) It looks like these two NY races will come down to absentees, along with IL-08, CA-11, CA-20, and AZ-08. Also, KY-06 and NC-02 are going to recounts and TX-27 is still uncalled. Is there anything I missed on that list?

  7. I didn’t see this coming.  How strange.  If Altschuler’s lead holds up, Eric Cantor will be the happiest man in Washington as this would double the Jewish Republican Caucus.  But how do you get a count so wrong.  Did vote counters literally have a ganja break?

  8. on Newsday.com, but I’m not paying 5 dollars a week to view their site.

    In any event, the partisan breakdown for the absentees appears favorable to Bishop, even with the higher R return. Remember this district is very republican, and Bishop had a 12 point lead with Sienna at a time when a lot of those absentees may have been sent

  9. a couple of observations . . .

    Upstaters have tended to vote GOP at the assembly, state senate and House level as a counter balance to the Democratic powerhouse of New York City.  The GOP in NY is not very ideologically conservative (many of its state representatives are to the left of Democrats) but is mostly a vehicle for advancing and protecting the interests of suburban and upstate residents.  

    NY suburbanites have been royally pissed off with Governor Paterson and the Dem-controlled legislature.  Many are affluent and hate the increased taxes that have been imposed over the past couple of years.  Plus the corruption and incompetence displayed by the NY Senate and Assemby has severely damages the Dem brand outside of NYC.

    I though that Altschuler had a very good chance of winning the NY-01 race.  So this is no big surprise.  

  12. Altschuler holds the very slimmest of leads, and the absentees could break for Rep. Bishop by just a tiny margin and he’d pocket the win.

    Still, not the kind of headline you want to read.

  13. Obviously not good, but I still think Bishop pulls it off.  In active voters the GOP has an approx 6% Registration advantage, and considering the likely higher GOP turnout it was probably a couple points more GOP than that on Election Day.  Registration advantage for the GOP with the absentees is GOP 3.45%  (Newsday is reporting 9,901 ballots received so far).  If that holds you are looking at a registration advantage that is about 2.5% less for the GOP than true registration, and a GOP registration advantage that is probably 5-6% less Republican than Election Day.  Also its likely that the absentees are disproportionately from the Hamptons, which votes more Democratic than registration suggests.

  15. The results phoned in by poll inspectors on Election Night put Bishop ahead by 3,461 votes, according to the BOE website.

    Yesterday, BOE workers in Yaphank downloaded the data from the county’s new optical scanning machines and when the task was completed, determined Altschuler was on top by nearly 400 votes, he said.

    The new optical scanning machines were used by Suffolk County for the first time in a general election this week. On after the polls closed on election night, poll inspectors printed out tallies from each machine and then telephoned the results in to BOE headquarters, according to the source.

    The results phoned in Tuesday were different from the data downloaded directly from the machines yesterday by about 4,000 votes.

    http://www.riverheadlocal.com/…

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