So as you all have probably heard, a dark red tide has washed over Ohio in last week’s election. We lost ALL of the state wide races that were up (six out of seven were up). We lost five congressional districts, two state senate seats and 12 state house seats (with two more going to automatic recounts).
Our company lost three state rep clients and may lose one more based on an automatic recount.
A bloodbath.
But things CAN get worse.
Currently we have 18 congressional districts here in Ohio but we are likely to lose two of these in next years redistricting. Not only that, but the GOP now controls all aspects of redistricting Ohio for both Congressional seats and for state legislative seats.
Keep in mind that while we’re down to five congressional seats, we were one Nazi uniform wearing idiot (OH-09) and one double rape charge idiot (OH-13) away from only having three Dem seats coming out of this election. Dem share in OH-09 went from 74.37% down to 59.01% and it went from 64.55% down to 55.46% in OH-13 from 2008 to 2010.
Using Dave’s redistricting tool, I took a stab at what 16 districts could look like if the GOP really turns the screws and tries to maximize GOP seats.
Combining state house voting patterns, the demographic info on the redistricting tool and my knowledge of Toledo and Columbus, I believe the only reliably Democratic district is the dark blue one in Cuyahoga county. It is majority minority (42% white) as required by the voting rights act.
As for other city centers, Toledo is split down the middle based on my knowledge of the neighborhoods. I think I defused the rest of Cuyahoga county fairly well but some of the greater Youngstown area is in the dark purple district. Hard to say here. A lot of the African American population is in the green district (can’t see partisan breakdown but can see demographic) which is separated into the more affluent parts of Cuyahoga county.
Franklin county is in four pieces, each one reaching out to LOTS of rural areas. The salmon colored district at the western part of Franklin County (the more GOP parts of Dublin, Hilliard and Grove City) stretch to take in the more urban parts of Montgomery County which central area is broken into both the salmon and the olive green districts. The light green part of Montgomery county (which are more affluent) curves down to get some of the urban parts of Hamilton county, leaving the remaining parts of that in the slate blue district.
The population breakout is within tolerance based on my knowledge of how this works. Each district (based on 2008 population data) is to have 717,869 people. The highest deviation is -926 and the lowest is +5.
I see you split Hamilton four ways, similar to Franklin. And combined Fudge and Kucinich into on district. Pretty frakkin’ depressing.
Can’t wait to see partisan data for Ohio in Dave’s App.
Just giving the Dems one seat in the whole state is a good way to lose your seats in vast quantities when the pendulum inevitably swings the other way.
Like the Mahoning-Portage County district would be pretty Democratic and overpower the swing/tilt-Repub areas in Cuyahoga. Parma, the largest city in this portion of Cuyahoga, voted for Obama by almost 20 points, after all. That alone will dilute a lot of the Republican strength there in places like Strongsville. Might go Republican in a year like this if it were open, but I doubt Tim Ryan would have many problems there.
Still, devastating gerrymader of Columbus, at least in the short-term. It would probably be even more effective in the long run if Republicans sacrificed a district in metro-Columbus to us, but I doubt they’ll approach redistricting with that kind of foresight. Your approach is probably pretty realistic.
A district-by-district commentary would be helpful, though.
“Keep in mind that while we’re down to five congressional seats, we were one Nazi uniform wearing idiot (OH-09) and one double rape charge idiot (OH-13) away from only having three Dem seats coming out of this election.”
That is quite possibly one of the most presumptous and ridiculous statements I have ever seen on SSP. First of all, the Republicans won exactly 0 districts with a D+7 PVI or more in this past election. OH-9 is D+10. That alone makes it extremely, extremely unlikely that Iott would’ve beaten Kaptur. As it was, Iott got blasted by 20 points plus, and I don’t think the Nazi thing was worth nearly that. I also don’t buy into the theory that Sutton would’ve gone down without the rape allegations. I’m from OH-13, and most of the people I talked to told me that the rape allegations did not impact their decisions much (most felt that the timing of them was politically motivated), and that his “buyer beware” way of doing business was a much bigger issue. Again, it’s one thing to hold an incumbent to 55%, but a much tougher task to get yourself over 50%+1. The only D+5 or better districts I recall republicans winning Tuesday was IL-10. They came close in NM-1 but lost, same for MA-10, which were also D+5 districts like OH-13. True, they did hold WA-8 and PA-6 but those were R incumbents. So I don’t believe Sutton would have lost regardless.
Now, as for the map you’ve drawn, please don’t take any offense to this, and with apologies to DavidNYC, THIS MAP IS A TOTAL FRICKING DUMMYMANDER!!!
Ahem, let me explain. First of all, just by looking at it, I’m almost certain that Obama carried the three districts in the northeast and east, the green, purple, and orange, and Kerry might have won all three as well.
Green – Obama won Lake county, won Ashtabula, won Trumbull and Mahoning by huge margins, more than enough to cancel out Geauga and eastern Cuyahoga. Kerry won all these except for Lake. Remember, Obama tied McCain in the current OH-14, and you’re adding most of Trumbull and half of Mahoning in there now too. LaTourette would have a very hard time holding this seat, probably D+4 or D+5 now.
Purple – This district contains Portage, which was carried by Kerry and Obama, as well as Democratic Portage and Mahoning counties. Plus, some of the Cuyahoga cities, like Parma and Garfield Heights, are hugely democratic, which helps to balance the republican bastions of Strongsville, North Royalton, and Broadview Heights. This district is probably D+2 or so, at worst even PVI, and Ryan would have no trouble holding it in anything but a strong republican year.
Orange – This district includes most of democratic Akron, and includes other counties carried by both Kerry and Obama, like Belmont, Jefferson, and Stark. The area overall is starting to turn rightward a bit, but again, this one would be no worse than even PVI and probably more like D+2 or D+3 depending on what precincts in Akron/Canton are inside it.
Now the districts in the northwest are interesting. The gray district contains most of Toledo and lots of farm country. It looks like a republican district, but I’d be willing to guess that Lucas county accounts for at least 40% of the district’s population. Given that, and the fact that Henry, Fulton, Williams, and Defiance counties are taking a hard swing leftward right now, this seat is definitely competitive. My guess on PVI is maybe R+1 or R+2. The other two seats in the northwest/north central are probably competitive too. The turquoise seat is likely R+4 or R+5, but the yellow district is tight because it contains Lorain and Erie counties, two counties that went hard for Obama and that Kerry easily won as well. Obama almost certainly won this district in 2008, and not by 1 or 2 percent either.
Looking at Columbus, I would say that 3 of the four districts are safe, but the light blue district probably went for Obama and maybe for Kerry as well. Most of the minority precincts in Columbus are on the east side and most of those are in the light blue district. There’s a lot of hostile territory there, but Coshocton, Muskingum, and Perry counties are only slightly R-leaning. I wouldn’t say the light green district is a lock for the R’s either, as it contains swingy areas of Akron/Canton, coupled with Tuscarawas, Monroe, and Athens, all of which went for Kerry & Obama. Plus, some of these river counties are still more democratic at the local level, which could result in an upsurge for the D candidate.
In a bad year, some of the other Columbus and Cincinnati districts could be in play for the Dems as well.
gerrymander possible in Ohio and various other states is not a constructive exercise.
Evil.
Although I think alot of this map is unlikely to happen, I think the red district, or a minor variation thereof, is very likely.
The 4-way split of Columbus, as noted, is the best way to try to avoid a safe D seat there and might hold, though I’m not sure about the salmon district.
The more obvious Dem districts are purple (I can’t imagine you could draw the lines there so Tim Ryan doesn’t win), and some of the Orange/Green (you’re breaking Akron by gerrymandering it with Ted Strickland’s old district).
This map seems that in a Dem +5 year, it could go something like 14-2 D. I’m having trouble picking out a “safe R” seat other than a few by Cincinnati/Dayton, or maybe the yellow district.
The Northwest IS quite an amazing job, but each one of those COULD conceivably elect a Democrat. The Turquoise one would have voted for Obama slightly, though the Gray one seems to have been effectively drowned out in Toledo. The Yellow district will have as well voted narrowly for Obama (I approximate by 8000 votes). I wouldn’t count on the red one either, as I’m not sure how the Cuyahoga and Summit portions voted, but it could have very conceivably been an Obama district.
Further in the Northeast, a Mahoning-some Trumbull-Portage will EASILY counteract and elect over the dubiously Cuyahoga burbs. Steve LaTourrette could probably win the DarkGreen one, but he’d be even more precariously in a slight-Obama district.
Going to the Eastern region, the Orange and Green ones, both look like they’re drawn to elect Democrats. Honestly. The Orange one has 40% of Summit, 60% of stark, and a bunch of counties that went a total of 2500 votes to McCain (and probably culturally more Appalachian), that gives you a district that would have voted approximately by 22,000 votes for Obama. Not chump change. The other district would’ve voted for (approximately, based on a rough estimation of Stark + Summit) for Obama by 19,000 votes, and would fit QUITE well with a guy like Charlie Wilson or Zach Space.
Now the Colombus districts look to be successfully diluted, Tiberi’s would be pretty safe (the top one).. the East one could be won by somebody like Zach Space (he’d have to move), The Pink one could conceivably be done by a Paul Hackett like character (and notably, one who can atleast win the rural areas convincingly like Pike, Scioto or Ross Counties). The Western Salmon one looks to be precarious as well: this would be Jean Schmidt’s district, and it DOES contain western Franklin, part of Dayton, and mostly light, rural population areas (hey, maybe Paul Hackett could run this time around :D)
The Hamilton districts could become precarious in a Dem-wave election, but look to be managed better.
Either way, I think this map WOULD end up as a dummymander – they should
if they were really smartjust pack as many dems as possible in Franklin and NE, so that everything surrounding it can be neatly drowned out in the conservative morass.