SSP Daily Digest: 11/8

• MA-Sen: Well, that was a nice week off from forward-looking horse-race reporting. On to 2012: one of the first Dem names being floated as a potential challenger to Scott Brown is someone I’d never heard of till now, but who seems to have ‘rock star’ frequently appended to his name: Setti Warren, the mayor of the very affluent yet very liberal suburb of Newton. Warren, who is African-American, has been mayor of the city of 93,000 (which is 3% black) for only a year.

• NV-Sen: In case it just wasn’t clear what an astoundingly well-handled re-election effort came from Harry Reid’s camp this year, check out Jon Ralston’s re-cap. He recounts how the groundwork was laid years ago, lopping off potential challengers until the weakest one was left standing, details the post-primary ad blast that defined Angle permanently, and also goes into how Reid’s team never lost faith that their own internal polls (the same ones Ralston saw) were right and the public polls were wrong.

And then there’s the 2012 race, already fascinating, with the first question being whether the unpopular and impoverished John Ensign even tries to run again. The LVRJ looks at the four top Dem contenders and six potential GOP challengers as well, including (could lightning strike twice?) Sharron Angle. The article also looks at potential musical chairs and open seats in the House, given the imminent creation of a Dem-leaning NV-04 and the possibility of multiple House members running for Senate.

• UT-Sen: One guy who shouldn’t feel too confident going into 2012 is Orrin Hatch, despite his state’s GOP lean: Bob Bennett’s death by teabagging is a huge red flag, and now a poll from Mason-Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune has him at a 40% re-elect, with 48% saying “someone else.” (Of course, that 48% no doubt includes both Dems and Tea Partiers.) No head-to-head numbers in the general or primary, though.

• VA-Sen: Jim Webb has sounded notably ambivalent about the prospect of a run for re-election in 2012; it’s also been evident in his fundraising so far. A recent interview has him still continuing that tone, say he’s “still sorting that out” and seeing him venting about the White House.

• WV-Sen: I suspect this isn’t likely to have the desired effect, but it certainly can’t hurt them to ask: the GOP is already leaning on newly-elected West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin to change parties. They’re offering him his pick of committee assignments (in the minority, natch) and citing the difficulty of running downticket from Obama in 2012 in WV.

• CA-Gov: Here’s a nice bit of early perceptions-setting: Jerry Brown has ditched the offer of swank transition headquarters on Sacramento’s K Street (apparently Sacto has its own K St. that serves a similar purpose?) in favor of keeping operations at his old campaign HQ in Oakland. Shades of the old Plymouth Duster from 35 years ago! (Although it’s worth noting that the Duster, though considered an econobox at the time, today holds a minor place in the muscle car pantheon.)

• IN-Gov: So this Mike Pence for Governor thing may not be a done deal yet. Moving to Gov was clearly done with an eye toward an eventual run for President (as nobody, if you’re not named James Garfield, gets elected Prez straight out of the House). But he still seems to be gauging the possibility of a 2012 run straight from the House, buoyed by his popularity at the last Value Voters Summit and the lack of a dominant player in the current GOP field. He says he’ll make a decision by the end of the year.

• MT-Gov: This small state will have a big gubernatorial race in 2012, with Brian Schweitzer term-limited. Former Republican Rep.-at-large Rick Hill has just announced he’s running; Hill served from 1997 to 2000 before retiring because of health issues which he says have been resolved. Two other GOPers, former state Sens. Corey Stapleton and Ken Miller, are also running; no Dem has thrown his hat in yet.

• KY-AG: This could be an interesting matchup, of the Senate race that could have been. The Kentucky off-year elections are in just one year, and Trey Grayson (the SoS, and loser of the GOP Senate primary) is looking for a promotion of sorts, to AG. That would put him up against Dem Jack Conway (loser of the Seante general), who presumably will be running for re-election.

• DGA: One committee that can feel pleased with its mild overperformance (not that -5 seats is a good thing, of course, especially what with the heartbreaker in Florida, but there was some definite beating of the spread going on here) is the DGA. Director Nathan Daschle lays it out in a memo that’s worth reading if you need something to feel good about, pointing out that the GOP’s gain is explicable purely by the races that the DGA didn’t financially contest (KS, MI, OK, TN, and WY).

• Leadership: It looks like we can call off the Pete Sessions Deathwatch. He’ll be back for another term at the helm of the NRCC (after abandoning plans to run for majority whip, which looks like it’ll fall effortlessly to Kevin McCarthy). Whether he can maintain the NRCC’s gains this next cycle will be the real test of Sessions’ abilities; although he’ll get some aid from redistricting, there’s an awful lot of deadwood washed up on the beach that’ll need protecting. Also, John Cornyn will almost certainly also be back at the NRSC, eager to finish what he got halfway through this cycle.

Meanwhile, as we mentioned last night, the DSCC chair is the hot potato that no one, even Charles Schumer, wants to hold. The main unresolved issue for the Dems is the minority whip race, which pits Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn against each other in the #2 spot on the truncated leadership ladder in the minority. Surpisingly, it seems like Hoyer may (despite what looks like Nancy Pelosi efforts to box him out) be able to pull this out, given some crossover support from many members of Pelosi’s camp (notably Ed Markey and Jerry Nadler). Progressive Caucus leadership (like Lynn Woolsey and Raul Grijalva) has lined up behind Clyburn, though. Here’s one weird suggestion for breaking the stalemate (from Jesse Jackson Jr.): both should get out of the whip race, and co-run the DCCC together (which, with Chris Van Hollen out, is also without a head right now).

278 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 11/8”

  1. Also, is Marty Meehan thinking of runninga against Brown up in MA?  He still has like $4 million or more in his federal account.  Is Meehan well-liked still?

  2. Although I was too young to care about ’94, I do know that this is like when Ben Nighthorse Campbell and dixiecrat Richard Shelby where offered key positions in exchange for defecting (note that even if they didn’t defect, the GOP held a 51-49 majority).  Odd that the Senate Republicans are acting like it’s ’94 all over again and they won the Senate and can offer their juice to conservative Democrats to win them over.  Are they cocky or just in denial?  Who the heck would defect to the minority.

  3. I’d rather see him not seek re-election at all. Heck, at least Tom Periello would galvanize the party base (though I highly doubt he could even come close to beating Allen).

  4. 1. I don’t get it. He told the White House health care was going to be a disaster, but is that really manifested in exit polling? And are any of his other concerns about working class whites something that can’t be dealt with by an improving labor market?

    2. I really, really, really hope the Democrats devote a lot of time to studying just what Reid did. The results aren’t exactly transferable to other states–my guess is, for instance, that Virginia and Missouri don’t have exactly the same union presence as Nevada does–but the broader lessons of working early to define the opposition and turnm out a coalition of voters, whomever it is composed of, ring true.  

  5. I don’t mean to derail, but given how central economic recovery is to our chances up and down the ballot in 2012, it’s worth mentioning a few tea leaves of recent good news.  One, obviously, was the October jobs report which showed private sector job growth more than twice as big as experts had forecast.  Two, I’ve taken to following the Gallup daily track on several economic indicators, and a couple indicators that have been flat all year have been showing clear improvement more recently.  Gallup’s underemployment measure has shown a very slow but clear decline over the past couple months, and the economic confidence index has sharply tacked upward the past couple weeks to a new high.  And the job creation index has suddently spiked, although that’s still very recent and it’s too soon to tell if it’s part of a trend or just noise.

    Still, if a real jobs recovery and confidence are starting to take off, it’s going to be a boon for us in Senate races in 2012.  I don’t think we’ll get the House back, but I expect us to regain enough seats to climb back into the 200s almost no matter what (including redistricting).  But I regard the Senate and Obama’s reelection prospects as tied to the hip, and both tied to the hip to the economy.  Even if unemployment ticks down only a tenth of a percent each month, as long as it does so consistently, people will feel better and get over their angry and scared selves.

    Again, although I buried it in the above paragraph, I really think Obama’s fate is centrally tied to Senate Dems’ fate, after I look at what seats are up in 2012.  So we need a real recovery to save both.

  6. Going to be a very interesting cycle.

    Half of me thinks Brown is going to lose by 20 points. Half of me thinks he has that Senate seat as long as he wants it.

    One interesting, but true point made by Nevada Republicans is that the state gained by Harry Reid’s disproportionate influence. So, even if you hated his guts, it might be worth it to keep the Senate leader onboard because he brings the bacon home.

    That might hold true for Brown here. With an all D house, MA really lost out now that they have no members at all in the majority.

  11. More precisely, Rick Hill had Lasik surgery that didn’t go well. It’s interesting that in the photo in the Missoulian piece he’s wearing glasses.

  13. The RNC has Minnesota with a Democratic governor. They should tell Emmer, it would save us all some time.

  14. how Kevin McCarthy ascended to the third-ranking position in the GOP leadership so quickly?

    He was first elected only in 2006 — how could there have been so many more senior members who just stepped out of the way?  

  15. Is there any way Democrats get back the House this decade?  I mean, Republicans will be drawing the district lines in most states and will be protecting all of these new members that Democrats would need to beat to have a chance at winning back the majority.  Boehner is probably king for the next decade.

    Maybe Democrats can make a comeback next decade, but its not going to be any fun losing election after election this decade.  

  16. Cillizza says that Steve Israel (NY-02) has the inside track to becoming the next DCCC head.  I’m not particularly familiar with Israel’s record, so I’ll leave analysis to somebody that is.  I did find it interesting that Pelosi’s team don’t really trust Wasserman Schultz and friends, especially on top of the Florida endorsement fun from the ’08 cycle.

    Also the DSCC bit of that story is just another piece of “nobody wants it” to pile on. Seems like the Bennet talk around here might not be too far off though….

  17. a likely silly question. Could Jim Matheson make a race out of a Senate race vs. a random tea bagger who defeats Hatch for the R primary in 2012? Let’s say Hatch is so mad he endorses Matheson and the R nominee has a lot of baggage, like Miller in AK. Is it completely insane for Matheson to win under these not implausible circumstances? Also the D nominee for Governor this year could potentially hold Matheson’s CD. It would be hard but even if we lost it, a Senate seat would be great. Matheson probably wouldn’t want to throw away a safe CD for a long shot Senate race, I know. Still fun to speculate though.  

  18. Tom Torlakson, who has been a democrat in the State legislature for around 14 years, running for Superintendent of Public Instruction WON orange county (the whole county, not CDs, or LGs, the whole thing) 50.6%-49.6%.  This is interesting, because while both are democrats, it was suspected that GOP voters would get behind Aceves because he was more palatable than Torlakson, who had been a Sacramento Politician for so long.

    Guess that wasn’t the case.

  19. Are re-elect numbers actually predictive of electoral success/failure?

    It always seems like underdog candidates, particularly on the House side, will release internals that say things like “Congressman X’s re-elect numbers are only 35%! He must be DOOMED!”

    But in reality, the question on the ballot isn’t “Would you re-elect your Senator or not?” In that case, I think we’d see a lot more attrition than we do in both chambers.

    I just don’t think re-elect numbers (or even job approval numbers) mean that much in the broader context of a campaign. Oh hey there, Sens. Reid and Bennet…

  21. And it severely dimished the ability for the GOP to eat their own catfud, but conversely, it helps dems throw fud into the GOPs field if the dems only have one candidate on the ballot.

    Its and interesting dynamic that I wish could have proven itself in WA before being implemented here in CA.

  23. 1) Think that Jim McGovern would be down with challenging Scott Brown in 2012? It would make the whole redistricting one person’s seat away from them easier to put Worcester and Springfield in the same district (hey, we need exciting primaries for when Neal retires!).. probably creating an open New Bedford/Fall River district.. giving Barney Frank a normal district (Newton/Brockton/Taunton).. and coincidentally making a Capuano/Lynch primary in a Boston/Cambridge/Somerville district. Really, the whole division of Southeast Massachusetts thing is a bit ridiculous and even if it means pairing two Dems, having an open seat there would undercut some of Scott Brown’s appeal in that area.

    2) When it comes to the future prospects of Dina Titus, who draws the map when Sandoval vetoes the map and they can’t figure it out? Just curious since hopefully the parts of Clark County in the 4th will be Republican to make the 3rd bluer. And I don’t see the benefit of a Hispanic majority district in Nevada either.

  24. And the GOP claims an offer was never made:

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/-…

    “Joe Manchin is a lifelong Democrat, and he is not switching parties. This is exactly what is wrong with Washington – individuals try to put politics before our nation,” said Melvin Smith, a spokesman in the governor’s office. “Joe Manchin wants to go to Washington to encourage Members of Congress to stop partisan bickering and start putting our nation’s needs at the forefront.”

  28. Seven races were decided by two or fewer points and the Democrats won five of them, including the four closest races. One of the two close races the Republicans won (ME) had an Independent in 2nd. Some would claim that this indicates superior allocation of resources, but I’m sceptical, for elections are notoriously difficult to predict with precision. If the national mood was just half a point more Republican, the Republicans would have netted nine governorships.  

  30. You have Dayton just barely edge out Emmer with Horner getting 12%, the state legislature lost a giant number of seats, and yet all three of the other state constitutional offices won pretty comfortably.

    And I cant quite figure out what I think would have happened if Horner wasnt on the ballot.  We lost the legislature because Horner voters went GOP but people in the suburbs are too smart to think Emmer would be competent but Dayton would tax the shit out of them.  Both were essentially the worst each party could have offered.

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