Over-Time 2.0

  • Recounts: The Hill reports that the DCCC has sent staffers to assist with recount efforts in California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, North Carolina and Washington state. One state is notably not on the list, and I think that says a lot: Texas. Check out our TX-27 item below for more.
  • AK-Sen: Here’s the schedule: Absentee ballots (30,500) will start getting counted today. Tomorrow, write-ins (83K) will be talled. And provisional ballots (12,000) will be opened on Friday. Joe Miller needs to find a way to disqualify over 13,000 write-ins to have a shot (as things stand now) – or pray that people wrote in someone other than Lisa Murkowski. Interestingly, the NRSC is still backing Miller’s play, with Big John Cornyn and Jim “Crème” DeMenthe both sending fundraising emails on his behalf to help with recount efforts. Meanwhile, for her part, Murkowski has brought in notorious GOP hatchet man Ben Ginsburg. You may remember Ginsburg from such recounts as “Florida 2000: The Brooks Brothers Riot” and “Dickface Norm Coleman’s Dickfaced Adventure: The Whinening.” A little late-breaking cat fud!
  • MN-Gov: Though he trails Dem Mark Dayton by more than 8,700 votes, Tom Emmer (through his lawyer) says he won’t forego a recount. Cynical (i.e., sensible) observers imagine that Emmer will pursue even a hopeless recount just to give GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty some more time in office. With the state lege having just flipped to the Republicans, this would give the right-wing wrecking crew some unfettered time at the controls. The incoming state House Speaker, Kurt Zellers, says that even if this scenario came to pass, the Republicans would not “rush to ram something right through.” Of course, you trust him, right?
  • CA-11: Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney’s lead over David Harmer has now climbed to 804 votes. A judge also rejected GOP demands that the elections chief for Contra Costa County allow observers to “compare signatures on vote-by-mail ballots with voter affidavit signatures on file in the office.” (The Contra Costa portion of the 10th CD went for Obama 56-43.)
  • CA-20: Republican Andy Vidak has seen his lead shrivel to just 145 votes… but it’s Dem Rep. Jim Costa who is in the driver’s seat. Huge numbers of ballots remain to be counted in Fresno County (perhaps 50 to 70K), and the Fresno part of this district went for Obama by a two-to-one ratio. Hard to see how Vidak hangs on.
  • IL-08: Though she picked up 188 votes last week, Rep. Melissa Bean (D) still trails Jim Walsh by 350. According to the AP, “hundreds of provisional and absentee ballots are still being counted in Cook, McHenry and Lake counties,” but the count won’t be finalized any sooner than Nov. 16th, the deadline for absentees to arrive. Provisional ballots will get counted after that date. In related barf-inducing news, unnamed sources (aka “buzz,” according to Politico) are supposedly floating Bean’s name to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Board if she doesn’t pull this one out. Gack!
  • KY-06: Andy Barr is down 649 votes to Rep. Ben Chandler (D), but he won’t concede until after a recanvass (scheduled for Nov. 12th) is complete. Barr vaguely sounded like he might be interested in a rematch, saying “”the cause will continue… and you can count on me whether I’m in Congress, a citizen, or a candidate for Congress.”
  • NC-02: A lot of roundups keep forgetting this race, but Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge has not conceded to Renee Ellmers – and in fact, he’s already filed a request for a recount. As long as the margin stays under 1% (as it is now), Etheridge is automatically entitled to have the votes tallied a second time. Even so, the gap right now is quite wide – 1,646 votes – but it seems like Dems are pinning their hopes on more errors like the one on election night, where Samson County failed to report votes from three of four early voting sites. Once these were added to the tally, Etheridge gained 453 votes. Still, he’s got a long way to go.
  • NY-01: Dem Rep. Tim Bishop’s lawyers are apparently headed to court today, seeking a full hand recount of all the ballots cast in this race. (And he’s raising money for the cause, too.) As you will recall, Bishop had a 3,400-vote lead on election night, but somehow that has since swung all the way to a 383-vote advantange for Randy Altschuler. New York finally moved to a modern, scantron-type ballot system this year; problems with the transition are being blamed for all kinds of issues. As for absentees, Hotline says: “There are approximately 10,000 absentee ballots still to be counted; 4,200 from voters of parties that endorsed Altschuler and 3,900 from voters of parties that endorsed Bishop.”
  • NY-25: Dem Rep. Dan Maffei trails Ann Marie Buerkle by 659 votes, but the AP says that “more than 7,000 absentee and other ballots remain outstanding and most won’t be counted until Nov. 15.” Also note that military and overseas ballots have until Nov. 24th to come in, which could be a factor if the race tightens. However, an analysis in AuburnPub.com suggests that if the absentees follow the same pattern as votes cast on election day, Buerkle’s lead will actually increase a bit.
  • TX-27: Dem Rep. Solomon Ortiz is gearing up to request a recount, but this one looks pretty hopeless. There are fewer votes remaining to be counted (and this includes provisionals, which are subject to getting tossed) than separate Ortiz from Blake Farenthold. Oritz is alleging irregularities at the polls, but local officials haven’t heard any such reports.
  • VA-11: As we mentioned yesterday, Republican Keith Fimian is conceding the race to Rep. Gerry Connolly.
  • WA-02: As we mentioned yesterday, the AP has called the race for Dem Rep. Rick Larsen over John Koster.

    • 159 thoughts on “Over-Time 2.0”

    1. So if things continue on course (which is a very large “if”), it’s looking like Dems retain CA-11, CA-20, and KY-06, while the GOP picks up IL 8, NY 1, NY 25, NC 8, and TX 27; that’d be +64 for the election overall.

    2. What are the significant races for November 2011?

      I read that KY, LA, and MS will hold elections for Governor this year.  Hmm, those states tend to be consistently red.  So I understand why those races don’t have the prominence of the Governor races in VA and NJ.

      How about mayoral elections?  What are the biggest cities that will have elections in 2011?

      Are there any other races of national significance that I’m missing?

    3. Looks like Maffei is taking a page out of Bishop’s book. He’s asked for a hand recount of absentees ballots, which could drag into December if granted. Also, it seems his volunteers have been calling absentee voters to see how they voted. While this is legal, I’m not sure what purpose this serves or how ethical it is. Looks like we could be in for a long one here regardless.

      Link: http://www.syracuse.com/news/i…

    4. Big John Cornyn and Jim “Crème” DeMenthe both sending fundraising emails on his behalf to help with recount efforts

      Fundraising for money to go to Miller or to the NRSC?

    7. The vast majority of people who register as members of the Independence Party in New York do so in error. A lot of people who check “Independence” on their registration form do so thinking they are registering as an independent.

      It’s actually quite confusing to a lot of new voters. If the Independence Party called themselves the Reform Party they would have a lot fewer registered voters.

      I doubt that even a handful of those outstanding Independence Party voters even know who the Independence Party is let alone who the party endorsed.

      You really should count the Independence Party voters the same as the non affiliated voters.

      If you do the math that way the break down is 4,196 lean GOP ballots (42.4% of ballots outstanding) to 3,623 Dem (36.6% Dem). The rest 2,082 (21%) are independents.

    8. has already named Andy Vidak as the rep-elect; if only Wiki made it so (from Andy’s perspective, anyway, not ours).

    9. The margin on WA 02 is large enough and growing that a recount is extremely unlikely. I know we had a recount team here last week by my understanding is that they were dispatched elsewhere last Friday.

      There are two state house races and one state senate race where a legislative  district recount is possible but the DCCC teams don’t involve themselves at that level.

    11. at almost 100%. Do they know something that I don’t, because I count only GOP +64 if all races go like projected.

      I do have an Intrade account with a bit of money in it… I’m wondering if I could make the money of my life here.

    12. first 6 states:

      http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

      2010 voters in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania all say they’d prefer a generic Republican to Obama in 2012. In Colorado it’s a close 45/50 spread, in New Hampshire it’s 40/54, and in Pennsylvania it’s 42/52.

      CT, CA, IL are fine.

      If CO was 45/50 generic re-elect with the 2010 electorate, I don’t think Obama will have too much trouble getting elected here in 2012 as long as things don’t get worse.  PA may be tougher with a decent GOP candidate, NH could be difficult unless the GOP nominates a boner.  What the hell happened in NH?

    13. Three white Rural Georgia Democrats have switched parties in the past two days.

      State Rep Alan Powell (1991), State Rep Bob Hanner (1975), State Rep Gerald Greene (1983) have all switched.

      More switches could be coming.

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