265 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  2. They’re still alleging “voter fraud”, and some tea-nut is trying to challenge the election results. Stupid. If Dems really wanted to fix the election, wouldn’t they fix the vote machines so that ALL the Dems would win ALL the big races? (i.e. Why didn’t Rory Reid and Dina Titus win if the electronic voting machines were “fixed”?)

  3. Well, Bobby Jindal looks like a shoo in for reelection. Beshear may be facing a tougher slough on his end, so that makes the Mississippi open governor’s race the only thing that seems worthy to talk about right now. Any candidates worthy of a mention?

    On the Democratic side, Ronnie Musgrove’s name comes to mind. As for the Republicans, there’s a whole bunch of names that I’ve never heard of. But based on recent electoral data, the Magnolia state still leans solidly Republican.

  5. Are there many good local blogs for state politics? I’m thinking of something along the lines of Paul Burka’s blog for Texas Monthly or David Yepsen at the Des Moines Register. Something that covers local trends and policies that the bigger publications eschew.

  6. Still looking like a 26-24 Democratic majority.

    The Republican is asking for a recount in a district where he trails by 71 votes. It’s extremely unlikely to reverse the result, but I guess they don’t want to leave any stone unturned. If he won that seat the Ds and Rs would have to share power in a 25-25 Senate.

    The Democrat hasn’t asked for a recount yet in a district where he trails by 12 votes. Don’t know what’s happening there. I would ask for a recount in his position, even though there’s a low probability of success.

    Lt. Gov-elect Kim Reynolds resigned from her state Senate seat today, meaning there will be a special election sometime in the next 45 days. Unfortunately, this is a pretty strongly Republican-leaning district covering seven counties in south-central and southwestern Iowa.

  7. have a favorite local pol that lost? My county prosecutor who has been great, seriously is by far the smartest person you’d ever meet, lost to a 25 year old with hardly any (maybe none actually) court room experience. It was completely because the number of people voting straight R pulled him over. Oh and I also lost my 32 year state rep to a woman who makes Sharron Angle look like a Harvard Law professor. Anyone have something similar happen? A “safe” state rep or something.  

  8. How did you talk with your children, especially younger children, about the election results? My kids (almost 5 and 7 1/2) took it pretty well, but I had prepared them for the likelihood of Culver losing.

    I decided not to discuss Iowa’s judicial retention vote with them unless they asked me about it, and they never did. I don’t think they know what judges are, and I didn’t want to introduce them to the concept of a bunch of people firing good judges because they said some people can get married.

  9. What is to stop the Michigan state legislature next year from dividing up the electoral votes by CD instead of winner take all?  I can’t find anywhere where the Dems could retaliate.

  10. Republican Wendy McNamara has been certified the winner (with eight votes!) over Democratic State Sen. Bob Deig in the race for Trent van Haaften's state house seat. Assuming McNamara's win holds up after a very likely recount, this will bump the new Republican House majority up to twenty seats.

    It's not all that important, but this means that everyone involved with the reshuffle caused by Evan Bayh's retirement lost. Brad Ellsworth didn't win the election to replace Bayh, van Haaften got demolished by Larry Bucshon in Ellsworth's House district, and now van Haaften's own seat has also flipped. To make it even better, the state senate seat Deig vacated for his attempt to replace van Haaften was also lost on Tuesday night to the Republicans. 

  15. Despite the fact that Tucson is a decidedly Democratic-leaning city, with Democrats holding a 14-point registration advantage over Republicans, it has not had a Democratic mayor in nearly 12 years. That might change this year, however, as moderate Republican Mayor Bob Walkup is seen as likely to retire, as he’s previously indicated that he’ll probably retire if two city-wide propositions failed to pass on election day, and they did in fact fail.

    Turning Tucson blue is an important step in building Arizona’s Democratic base. After Phoenix (run by Democratic mayor Phil Gordon), the next largest Arizona city with a Democratic mayor is Avondale, where Mayor Marie Lopez Rogers runs Arizona’s 12th largest city.

    An early Democratic entrant into the race is local attorney Jonathan Rothschild, who’s already gained an impressive list of endorsements, including the last two Democratic mayors of Tucson.

    Another name being floated for the job that’s much more familiar to SSPers is former Tucson Vice-Mayor and 2010 Democratic Senate candidate Rodney Glassman, who’s been rumored to be interested in the job since well before he lost the general election. His stature and his ability to raise money could definitely put him at the top of the pack, and it’s pretty widely known that, after McCain won his primary, Glassman focuses the bulk of his energies on Pima County. It’s worth remembering though that he probably has more political enemies than friends in Tucson; while the response to his Senate campaign was along the lines of “Eh, better than McCain running unopposed,” a mayoral campaign would bring his long history of douchebaggery to light. I wouldn’t call him a favorite just because he ran the Senate race last time, but I’m not counting him out until we have a better idea of what the field will look like.

    Incidentally, either Rothschild or Glassman would be Tucson’s first Jewish mayor since 1879.

    Those two seem to be sucking up most of the oxygen at the moment, but other potential Democratic candidates include City Councilwomen Karen Uhlich and Shirley Scott, with Scott seen as the most likely candidate. Either would be the first female mayor of Tucson, and Uhlich would be the first openly gay mayor of Tucson. Shirley Scott is sort of a conserva-Dem, so she’d probably be fighting for a similar primary voter pool as Glassman. Then again, she’s been a City Councilwoman since before Glassman moved to Tucson, so she may have the edge.

    None of this is to suggest that the mayoral race is a slam dunk for Democrats as Republicans have won city-wide in Tucson before and they can do it again. Incumbent Mayor Bob Walkup has not yet announced retirement (though again, it’s seen as quite likely), but Republicans would probably put up a strong challenge if he steps aside. Republican City Councilman Steve Kozachik was elected city-wide in our asinine “Councilmembers are supposed to represent individual wards but have to run city-wide” election system last year. Incidentally, he’s my city councilman, and I don’t have any complaints per say, but it’s pretty ridiculous that he lost my Ward by 20 points in the general yet still represents me because Republicans on the Eastside came out for him.

    If not Kozachik, Republicans will probably manage to recruit some businessman who can make this a race; one source names business consultant Rick Grinnell, who’s run for a City Council seat in the past, and Chair of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Bill Holmes.

    What Democrats have to watch out for here is a depressed base, which was essentially the problem last year. Between ineffectual and uninspiring Democratic nominees (such as Kozachik’s opponent, Councilwoman Nina Trasoff) and dissatisfaction with the handling of a downtown renewal plan, Democratic turnout was poor while Republican turnout went through the roof. The advantage of running someone like Rothschild is that he’s not tied to the distaste for business as usual in city politics.  

  19. don’t want to toot my own horn but my house predicts turned out to be somewhat accurate. Under my doomsday scenario we lost 64 seats. I have not gone through to check out the percentages of lean gone yet though. I would think those numbers would hold up, not sure though. Oh and under my model Cook was the closet with 63 seats gone. Real Clear Politics was the worst with 80. My Indiana predicts where not the best though, I had Hill winning. But to my defense the only poll had him up two, it’s hard to predict a race with only one public poll.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

  20. Apropos of nothing, Michigan governor-elect Rick Snyder has decided not to move in the governor’s mansion in Lansing, being the first governor to do so since the home became the governor’s mansion.

    The reason may not be what you think.  This multi-millionaire’s current residence in suburban Ann Arbor is 10,600 square feet (I think this is over 2,000 square feet more than the governor’s mansion) in a gated community, and features an indoor swimming pool, 15-seat home movie theater, a wine cellar, and a wine tasting room.  He also has a 5,000 square foot “cottage” up in Gun Lake in Western Michigan.

    Yeah, this is one rich SOB. lol  The last guy this wealthy to hold the office was propbably George Romney back in the 60’s, who, ironically left office the year the governor’s mansion was purchased.

  21. 1. Who is the most vulnerable incumbent Senator? Pick one D and one R.

    2. What state will be the closet and most competitive?  

    3. What Congressman is the most vulnerable? Pick one D and one R.  

    4. What incumbent Senator do you most want to see defeated?

    5. What incumbent Congressman do you want to see defeated? Within reason, so no Pelosi or Cantor.

    6. Who is most likely to retire?  

    7. Besides Olympia Snowe who is most likely to lose in a primary.

    My Answers

    1. Ensign, Nelson

    2. OH

    3. Hard to say for dems as many are already gone. Bill Owens I suppose. R’s= tie between Allen West and Joe Walsh.  

    4. Scott Brown. Too conservative for Mass.  

    5. Alan West.  

    6. Akaka

    7. Corker. Very red state and he is too moderate for some.  

    7. Bob Corker

  22. Manchin and Coons get sworn in November 15th and Kirk will get sworn in December 3rd. I assume Manchin will get sworn in before Coons, not 100% on that though. Not sure why Kirk is getting sworn in later since he should have more seniority given that he is the only one to have served in Congress which comes above everything else when factoring seniority. I suppose Burris is holding off. He said he might try and block it as he thinks the special was unconstitutional. He could potentially hold off Kirk getting in early at all if he’s lucky. Hey moor power to him.  

  23. The Hotline is reporting that outgoing Congressman Brian Baird (D-WA) may consider running for Congress in 2012. But if he does, its not looking like it would be against Jaime Herrera. Instead, he has running in and open WA-1, Jay Inslee’s seat, in mind.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…

    Jay Inslee is widely watched as possibly running for Governor in 2012 if Governor Gregiore does not seek a third term. As I asked myself what the chances of a Congressman from another section of the state running in another seat would do, I remembered that at one time Inslee was a Congressman from WA-4, so this district has done it before.

  25. I’m not hearing more people say they think Jim Gibbons could have beaten Leonard Boswell. Zaun was such a flawed candidate. Then again, Gibbons was weak in many ways–the big advantage he over Zaun had was the national money would have come in for him.

    I tend to agree with Nathaniel90–Latham is slightly favored to hold the new IA-03 for Republicans. Of course so much depends on how the lines are drawn. Polk County will always lean Democratic, but if it’s combined with counties mostly to the south and west rather than the east, the district will lean much more R. For the last 10 years Latham has represented most of the counties that border Polk County (Warren, Madison, Dallas, Boone, Story, Marshall). Only Jasper and Marion have been part of Boswell’s district in IA-03.

    Latham has brought a lot of money to Iowa State University. That will keep him very competitive in Story County, which normally leans D (voted for Culver over Branstad and yes on retaining Iowa’s Supreme Court judges).

  26. has anyone here ever felt guilty when they supported someone in the primary (voted or rooted for) because they were the weakest candidate and that person won the general?  sort of like nathan deal or reagan back in 1980?

  28. I did a map on DRA1.0 and came up with this

    I put the 4 largest cities in 4 different districts. Despite the custon, I split counties to keep the deviation under 100. There’s 3 split counties (Tama [2/3], Marshall [1/2], Worth [2/4]) and none of them would have changed the 08 Presidential result (30K votes in those 3 counties)

    CD1 (Central, Boswell): 54/44 Obama (all of Marshall outside of one precinct is in this district, which should hold it at the same level)

    CD2 (Northeast, Braley): 58/41 Obama (plus 1 Marshall precinct, half of Tama, a bit of Worth)

    CD3 (Southeast, Loebsack): 58/40 Obama

    CD4 (West, King/Latham): 53/45 McCain

    Boswell’s district is probably close to the same as it was in 2002-2010, but adding Ames is a big plus for future efforts there.

    Braley’s district is around the same as it was.

    Loebsack’s district is slightly redder as it seems to have picked up the rural 3rd district.

    Western Iowa really is King’s district (which was 55% McCain) and some of the more Republican parts of Latham’s district.

    But in all reality, there’s not a logical way to put Latham in the 3rd district without some variant of gerrymandering. Populationwise.. it’d be hard to pull off a NW/NE/SE/SW split of the state since Polk makes up over half of the population for any district it’s in.

    Originally, I had Linn in the NE district and Scott in the SE district, then I decided to both acknowledge that it’s traditionally the opposite, and Loebsack lives in Linn County. So he could Jim Leach himself to Iowa City. Plus, flipping Linn and Scott leads to Jackson and Clinton going into the SE district.

  30. http://ht.ly/39COE

    Also mentions potential comebacks for other candidates who lost this year. Fiorina does know how to raise money, and was co-chairwoman of the 2008 convention, and in charge of raising money for the 08 convention, so she as some experience with the RNC.  

    2. It gets annoying when your person in a tossup never is ahead, so now the Cooley folks are squirming again just as much.

      5k votes at this point though means little, except it’s better to be +5 than -5.

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