North Carolina GOP Redistricting, 7-6 D-R

This is my first diary and one of a handful I might post regarding potential GOP redistricting scenarios.  True to my Democratic nature, I’ve tried to be reasonable which is reason enough for folks to scoff at this as a GOP plan!

Based on all the legal history surrounding North Carolina redistricting and our VRA requirements, alot of which has been mentioned by me and others in comments recently, I don’t think we will see much change at all unless counties are absolutely butchered.  

My first thoughts and main goals (thinking like a Republican) were to either shore up Ellmers, increase the African-American percentages in our VRA districts and try to take out either Kissell or McIntyre; I think its nearly impossible to do both.

So, I believe in the end we’ll probably remain very close to our 7-6 D/R margin in the House.  

First District (Blue) – 40% White, 52% Black (old 43/50); 67% Obama, 32% McCain (old 63-37).

The biggest change here is taking this district towards Durham.  Why Durham and not Raleigh? Geography.  In order to get enough densely populated African-Americans and allow the 2nd to take in more GOP areas of Outer Wake, I had to take the First down to Durham.  Even when I did this from a Democratic perspective, the district had to grow and without going below 50% and cutting more counties, going to Durham was the only way to go.

Second District (Green) – 68% White, 20% Black (old 58/29); 43% Obama, 57% McCain (old 53-47).

This district saw the biggest demographic changes outside the VRA districts.  This is due to removing the African-American parts of Cumberland and Wake.  Its important to remember, though, that a Democrat could still win here, I think, since the Obama margin is probably alot less than that of Hagan or even Perdue. The other question to remember here is whether or not the GOP will even want to try to shore up Ellmers.  The former tobacco fields-turned-subdivisions of Harnett, Johnston and Franklin Counties are the “identity” of this district.  Harnett is growing rapidly due to BRAC realignment at Fort Bragg and Johnston (and Franklin, somewhat) are growing due to their proximity to Raleigh.  Per usual, this exurban growth is not good for Democrats. Also, this slices Rocky Mount and Wilson between their white and black parts of town. Finally, this swaps the heavily GOP and more Democratic parts of Sampson County with the current drawing helping to pad the GOP margin.

Third District (Purple) – 72% White, 19% Black (old 75/16); 40% Obama, 59% McCain (old 38/62).

This district doesn’t change much in terms of scope.  The far northeast is growing rapidly due to spillover from Virginia Beach.  Much of the local Democratic bench is either wiped out or headed that way. The “Inner Banks” region of the state is in this – folks who buy homes on the rivers and sounds.  It’s also growing and not in our favor. While this became slightly more Democratic, its Jones’ as long as he wants it and he’ll most likely be followed up by an even more conservative Republican.

Fourth District (Red) – 70% White, 18% Black (old 66/19); 56% Obama, 43% McCain (old 62/37).

This district sees a number of geographic and somewhat minor demographic changes.  While it reduces the Obama margin from before, I think alot of the previous Obama margin was due to suburban voters.  This, I think this version of the 4th is equally safe for Price and removes the chance that a young, suburban Republican like Lawson can challenge him.  Although he is a young 70, should he want to retire I think another Democrat could win here easily.  There isn’t much of a GOP bench here save for Alamance and Rockingham Counties. The identity of the district is still centered around the Western Triangle.

Fifth District (Yellow) – 84% White, 8% Black (old 85/7); 40% Obama, 59% McCain (old 38/61).

Minimal changes here – the addition of Northern Rowan County is really it.  This bastion of diversity belongs to good old Virginia Foxx (emphasis on old). It got slightly more Democratic but really shouldn’t be trouble for her.  Many folks have been voting for her since 1994 when she first won a State Senate seat that went across the northern counties (the most Democratic in this district). Her margins until this year have been slightly underwhelming compared to other Republicans.  However, when she retires, a good GOP candidate can old it.  PS – some guess that she’ll retire after her 5th term (2012 election) because at that point she’ll be eligible for her federal pension after ten years of service (she probably already gets a state pension for her work in higher education).  Gotta love those ‘true conservatives.’

Sixth District (Teal – 76% White, 13% Black (old 82/10); 40% Obama, 59% McCain (old 36/63).

This district keeps its central-state identity with the focus on Greensboro.  It got more Democratic because it absorbed Democratic parts of Greensboro tht are currently in the 13th.  But, the biggest change here is that it puts Kissell from Montgomery County in with Coble of Greensboro.  Like Walter Jones always does, and Patrick McHenry has done, he could easily run and win in the neighboring new 8th (below) with no incumbent.  Howard Coble, who shows no signs of slowing down at age 119, could easily slam Kissell in this district.

Seventh District (Gray) – 63% White, 21% Black (old 64/21); 48% Obama, 52% McCain (old 47/52).

No noticeable changes here. I’ll have some other diaries in the future where McIntyre is taken out but this one was done to hurt Kissell.  This district keeps itself as a Southeastern NC anchor.  While one might think Wilmington would be the identity here, no Wilmingtonian has represented this district in many decades. However, with the massive growth in Brunswick County, I would guess that whoever follows or beats McIntyre will be a Republican from the Wilmington area.

Eighth District (Lavender) – 61% White, 26% Black (old 58/20); 49% Obama, 51% McCain (old 52/47).

This would be Kissell’s district but I drew him out of it so it has no incumbent.  Part of the issue with shoring up Ellmers was removing Fayetteville’s African-American’s from the 2nd; they had to go somewhere so they got put here.  There’s not much choice with that unless you want to put them into the 6th (another diary possibility).  This new district is slightly more GOP than before and with the absurdly massive growth in uber-GOP Union County, this could easily be represented by a Republican who either takes Kissell out or follows him. There are very few white Democrats on the bench here and I’m skeptical a black Democrat could win it.

Ninth District (Bright Teal) – 73% White, 14% Black (old 77/13); 50% Obama, 49% McCain (old 44/55).

Do not be fooled by the presidential margin here! First of all, yes, it got more Democratic because I removed the white Democratic parts of Charlotte from the 8th. Second of all, I firmly believe that margins for offices below President are most likely more Republican and eastern Gaston County is very Republican itself.  Finally, Sue! (her old signs) Myrick has ridiculous loyalty in Charlotte.  She’ll hold onto this as long as she wants it.

Tenth District (Magenta) – 81% White, 11% Black (old 83/9); 37% Obama, 62% McCain (old 36/63).

Demographically not much change here.  The major change was removing GOP-yet-Shuler-friendly McDowell County from the 11th and putting it here while sticking very historically GOP Mitchell and Avery Counties in the 11th.  McHenry will have no trouble here despite that fact that there is lingering resentment that a Hickorian (Hickoryite?) does not represent the district as they did for many years before he won.

Eleventh District (Light Green) – 88% White, 5% Black (old 88/5); 46% Obama, 52% McCain (old 47/52).

As stated in the 10th I swapped Mitchell/Avery and McDowell.  No real changes.  Other than splitting Asheville in half, I don’t see how you can hurt Shuler.  Even if Mitchell/Avery had been a part of his district this year he still would have won.  Folks just like him (including me).

Twelth District (Light Blue) – 34% White, 49% Black (old 41/44); 74% Obama, 25% McCain (old 71/29).

Not much change here either in terms of shape except that instead of cutting around the edges of Rowan and Davidson Counties, I went right through the middle of Rowan to take in African-American parts of Salisbury. Again, the goal here was to pack as many African-Americans in as possible.  Some people talk of trying to make this more compact but its simply not possible.  At minimum, something like that would be 50-34 white/black.  So, it has to keep its shape.  

Thirteenth District (Beige) – 64% White, 20% Black (old 60/28); 59% Obama, 40% McCain (old 60/40).

The biggest change here is geography.  I tried to do a Wake-centered district.  It’s tailor-made for Miller and he’ll keep for as long as he wants it. The African-Americans from the current 2nd are placed here.

Like I said before, I think this won’t result in much change.  I’m working on a number of GOP-centered ideas that could work while working under the confines of legal history, precedent and rules.  

I hope my pictures aren’t too large – this is my first diary and I’m just glad they showed up.  I look forward to seeing what you all think!