The GOP again has control of the redistricting trifecta in Pennsylvania. Last time, it didn’t go as well as planned, as its intended 13 R & 6 D delegation (12 R + ousting Tim Holden) ended up a dummymander by 2008 (12 D & 7 R representatives).
This time around, the Republicans have the challenge of shoring up regained seats around the state, in addition to the probable elimination of one of the Democratic delegation. My goal here was to accomplish that, in addition to a couple of other curve balls:
Northwest PA:
PA-3: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler)
93% White, 4% Black, 3% Other
52% McCain, 47% Obama, (49% McCain, 49% Obama)
PA-3 shifts a few points to the right, as PA-5 takes eastern Erie county in exchange for more rural precincts. With the old PVI R+5.2 in addition to the rightward shift in the district, Kelly should be safe in most years.
PA-4 : OPEN; potentially Rep. Jason Altmire (D-McCandless)
93% White, 4% Black, 3% Other
53% McCain, 46% Obama, (no shift)
Surprisingly, it is fairly easy to remove Rep. Jason Altmire out of PA-4 by combining McCandless (his residency) with Mike Doyle in PA-14 in exchange for more Republican parts of Allegheny County. If he doesn’t decide to move within the district, this would probably be an GOP gain as the area is trending Republican with most of the state reps & senators being GOP members. On the other hand, if Altmire sees the primary with Doyle as unfeasible (likely) and doesn’t decide to retire, PA-4 could be the successor to the current PA-17 (Dem incumbent too personally popular to be unseated).
PA-5: Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-Howard)
96% White, 4% Other
54% McCain, 44% Obama (55% McCain, 44% Obama)
Thompson’s district moves westward and southward, taking parts of Allegheny and Erie county in order to shore up other less safe districts. Nothing too exciting here.
Southwest PA:
PA-9: Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg) vs. Rep Mark Critz (D-Johnstown)
93% White, 3% Black, 3% Other
55% McCain, 43% Obama, (63% McCain, 36% Obama)
Sorry, Mark Critz, but you’re most likely going to be out of office come 2012. The new PA-9 takes part of the former Murthamander of PA-12, including Critz’ home base of Johnstown. At a 55% McCain district with a non-Tim Burns opponent, he’ll need the stars to align in order to beat Shuster. Other than that, PA-9 shifts westward.
PA-12: Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair), formerly PA-18
95% White, 3% Black, 2% Other
55% McCain, 44% Obama
Murphy snatches most of the rest of PA-12 along with his own PA-18, as southwest PA is where population growth is the lowest.
PA-14: Rep. Mike Doyle (R-Forest Hills)
72% White, 21% Black, 3% Asian, 4% Other
67% Obama, 32% McCain ,(70% Obama, 29% McCain)
Mike Doyle’s district, still centered around Pittsburgh) becomes slightly less Democratic with the addition of Altmire’s base of McCandless. Doyle probably doesn’t have to worry about a primary from his right, so he should be in the clear.
NE