The redistricting process give the chance of have some improvement in Arkansas. Here the democrats keep still the trifecta and will draw the map what they want. Then this is a very interesting state for redistricting.
I think the democrats from Arkansas should take this chance for redistricting like the last time having the trifecta.
Looking to the results of the last election I think they are two possible combinations:
1D-1S-2R
0D-2S-2R
Arkansas 1D-1S-2R
The 1D-1S-2R can be the safest in the short term. And it would be better still if the democratic district can have the protection of the VRA.
I would like the democrats here find the VRA protection for one of the districts, because I think the republicans can draw a 4-0 map for them when they can, if they are not one district protected by the VRA.
The first map what I draw find the most black areas in the state for see if they are enough black in Arkansas for do a VRA district in the state. It is a map what shows the most black areas in the south and the east of the state with the size of a US House district. They are no-conected areas with the size of a district and over 50% black:
This areas would give the chance of create a minority-majority district with the blacks as first group if we try to connect the most black precints.
But it seems the current laws in the state leaves not divide the counties in different districts. If we take the most black option for a district in Arkansas we would have a district 38.32% Black like this:
It is not enough for have the protection of the VRA law. I would like the democrats from Arkansas think if it would be good to change the laws for make a VRA district or not.
But the next maps finding a good redistricting (since the democratic point) try to respect the current laws.
A little less black (38.25%) would be the most democratic district what the democrats from Arkansas can do. It is the AR-02 in the next map. This is the most democratic combination what I find, the best for unseat T Griffin.
This district would be 56.69% Obama, a 17.83% better than the average of the state (38.86% Obama). And being Arkansas R+9 still, that mean this district can be approximately D+8.
Taking this district as the new AR-02, and finding the most democratic combination possible between all the other counties for keep the seat of M Ross, we would have a map like this:
This new version for the AR-04 would be 42.59% Obama what is 3.73% better than the average of the state (38.86% Obama). That would give approximately a R+5 district. It is not easy to leave enough connected population for the AR-01 and AR-03 districts. The rating of both districts would be R+20 or little plus.
Arkansas 0D-2S-2R
Other different option would be to find a 0D-2S-2R combination with two swing district with rating close to EVEN. Just I need to find the most democratic option for come to this goal and this leaving decent deviations. It is not difficult to draw a D+ district including Pulaski county, but is so difficult to draw a EVEN district without this county. But well, this would be the district:
This version of the AR-04 (because includes Nevada county) is only 47.23% Obama, 8.37% better than the average of the state (38.86% Obama), and being Arkansas R+9, this district would be aproximately EVEN or R+1. This district would be 36% black.
The rest of the map with the best combination possible for AR-02 leaving enough space for AR-01 and AR-03 would be:
This version of AR-02 would be 47.22% Obama, 8.36% over the average of all the state (38.86%) and would be aproximately EVEN or R+1.
In this map again AR-01 and AR-03 would be R+15+.
I think the 1D-1S-2R option is better if:
– If we can have a VRA district in Arkansas (doing the necessary changes in the current law).
– While M Ross continues in the US House.The 0D-2S-2R can be better if M Ross leaves the US House for run for Governor (as example).
Loading ...
It’s not like the Arkansas Democrats are so interested in partisan politics that they would play hardball on this. I think they might do a 0-2-2 or even a 0-1-3, possibly.
More importantly, your 1-1-2 solution would almost certainly result in the Democrat elected being African-American. I think there might be a racist majority in the Arkansas state legislature that would never go along with that.
work on this. AR is special-I guess every state is special but it has some unusual aspects in it politics and redistricting.
1. There is term limits and politicians don’t build up powerhouse careers at state legislative levels. There are no permanment factions just permanment interests. So local or regional or business or labor or agriculture interests are key.
2. The state constitution forbids dividing counties for congressional districts so we don’t get weird absurd districts-they have passed plans to divide counties for equal population but so far they have not been implemented.
3. Yes the GOP is behind 55D-44R in state house and 20-15 in state senate. Yet a formal and informal coalition of conservatives have ran the state senate and house. Party labels are as important in the state legislative bodies. The GOP did win every contested state senate seat in 2010 so you get the drift of the state.
There are two factors in this redistricting process that are key in my opinion in AR.
1. Congressman Mike Ross (AR4) won 58% against a no name underfunded foe in 2010. His district is 40K short. He will not go into the GOP suburbs or GOP hills to find those folks. He is tight with the democrats in Little Rock. The only reliable democratic bloc for him is rural AA voters in the Delta on in CD1. So he goes into Delta.
2. AR2 (around little Rock) is about right population wise while AR1 is also short 30K or so. Now its more like 70K short AR4 grabs a county or two. Now AR3 (the GOP strongehold in the Ozarks) is 70K over. So we will likely see a surrender of GOP area to AR1.
I think AR4 goes a bit more democratic-AR2 & AR3 stays the same while AR1 goes more republican. That’s my guess. I do not see the dominant conservative factions in the state legislative bodies move AR2 into the Delta or any move to weaken AR4. AR1 & AR2 basically stays the same. Pulaski’s county progressive factions will be overwhelmed by rural and suburban conservatives.
I could be wrong but that’s my best guess.
Washington County votes less Republican than other Northwest Arkansas counties and Fayetteville votes Democratic. Along with Little Rock, a Democrat could easily win that district. The Pine Bluff-Delta district would not a be a problem for Ross to hold and will be the solution he’ll get.
But I do think the second one is more realistic. Arkansas Democratic legislators aren’t going to unite behind carving out a district where almost 40% of the population is African American.
the state legislature (Especially White Democrats) are kind of racist.
However, they better create some Obama district. This is the last year that AR Dems will hold control over redistricting for a long time.