So, I was sitting around thinking to myself that there’s no good reason why Maryland elects 2 Republicans to Congress, and then I remembered that there is: Because the 2001 focus was on ousting Connie Morrella and turning Ehrlich’s district blue. Well, Morrella is gone and Maryland has only trended Democratic over the past decade, so I don’t see any reason why a Massachusetts style delegation should be unreasonable.
Again, I don’t know whether this has been discussed at any great length here, but it took me about 15 minutes to throw together an 8-0 Dem map of Maryland that retains 2 majority-minority districts and actually features more compact districts than the current map.
The key, quite simply, is first splitting MD-06 (Bartlett-R) and joining each half with half of Montgomery County, and then splitting the Eastern Shore MD-01 (Harris) into three districts. The map and the Obama/McCain numbers are after the fold.
MD-01 (Harris-R)
Current: 40% Obama to 58% McCain
Projected: 54% Obama to 45% McCain
MD-02 (Ruppersberger-D)
Current: 59% Obama to 39% McCain
Projected: 56% Obama to 42% McCain
MD-03 (Sarbanes-D)
Current: 60% Obama to 38% McCain
Projected: 56% Obama to 43% McCain
MD-04 (Edwards-D)
Current: 85% Obama to 14% McCain (57% black)
Projected: 88% Obama to 11% McCain (62% black)
MD-05 (Hoyer-D)
Current: 68% Obama to 31% McCain
Projected: 55% Obama to 44% McCain
MD-06 (Bartlett-R)
Current: 39% Obama to 59% McCain
Projected: 62% Obama to 36% McCain
MD-07 (Cummings-D)
Current: 79% Obama to 19% McCain (59% black)
Projected: 70% Obama to 29% McCain (46% black)
MD-08 (Van Hollen-D)
Current: 74% Obama to 25% McCain
Projected: 62% Obama to 37% McCain
So, I’m just curious if anyone can think of a decent reason why the Maryland legislature won’t redistrict the state with 8 Democratic seats. I realize that the black percentage of MD-07 drops notably on my map, but there should be little problem pushing it back up while maintaining the basic partisan performance of the remaining districts.
If I can throw this together in 15 minutes I’m sure the Maryland legislature can figure it out well enough in six months.
Is that Reps. Hoyer, Sarbanes, and Ruppersberger, who are all liberal Democrats, are not going to want districts with near-even PVI. Hoyer in particular wields a lot of clout, and Sarbanes has family connections.
In a bad enough Democratic year, especially with ill-timed retirements, this could be a 4-4 split.
Keep Bartlett where he is and let Harris be defeated. Even if its Kratovil again he’s much better than Harris.
lines–I don’t have time to read all the details or the numbers but the clean lines are worth three cheers.
So sad you did not draw Maryland’s lines in 2001.
A rule of thumb I have is to assume no seat with a PVI less than +5 in either direction is safe. You’ve created four districts with PVI’s roughly D+1 to D+3.
I think the best map the Democrats could ask for would be to sink as many Republicans as possible in one district (which would likely run the northern length of the state), and then find ways to create two majority-black seats and five other safely Democratic seats.
Not bad for a quick 15 minute run-throguh. Now the above commenters have already pointed some of this out, but…
1. This map is an obvious potential dummymander. In a bad year, several of these districts turn red.
2. There are six Democratic incumbents and Donna Edwards is the only one who wouldn’t be immediately furious with this idea. Not just because their districts are made less Democratic, but because they all have to reintroduce themselves to a large number of new constituents, and in many cases new constituents who’ll be easy pickings for their GOP opponents next election. Not that you can give every sitting member everything they want, but there is something in between.
2. I don’t think a map that doesn’t include two black majority districts is gonna fly. (Admittedly, you mention that in your writeup, but then the surrounding districts become even closer to a toss-up PVI.)
3. I don’t think a map that carves up the Eastern Shore three ways like this is going to pass, especially since the only connection between two halves of the 5th is unbridged open water. Those residents aren’t going to like that, and the member (Hoyer in this case) isn’t going to like it either.
I’ll get to my issues with an 8-0 map and what mine would look like were I asked to draw one in a later post.
The lines are starting to uglify, but this map bumps MD-02, MD-03, and MD-05 up to 58% Obama to 40% McCain. MD-01 goes to 51-47 Obama.
It seems to me the voters are there to work out an 8-0 Democratic map with one swing seat for bad years (which is already a GOP seat now).
Why leave Gilchrist alone? His district is probably the simplest to flip.
My rule of thumb is about 59-60% Obama for a “safe” (i.e. solid enough to withstand the toughest wave, though the Rep. would have to work for it) Democratic district. Making four districts (including one with the Minority Whip) around 55% Obama is a recipe for disaster. In addition, there are two Dems in or close with the leadership (Hoyer and Van Hollen); they’re not going to let their districts be cut up. You also can’t dilute the black population in either of the majority-minority districts below 50%. This map wouldn’t stand a VRA challenge, nor would Cummings agree to having his district lose its black majority.
I came up with a 7-1 map that has 6 safe Dem seats and one swing seat (I moved a few precincts around that aren’t reflected on this map, but it still looks pretty much the same). If the intention is to get Kratovil back in (which it should be; he only lost the Eastern Shore by about 7,000 votes, while he lost the Western Shore by something like 27,000), he’ll need the entire Eastern Shore to back him in a primary; dumping a bunch of liberal precincts in with a slice of the Eastern Shore is going to make winning the primary tough for Kratovil.
MD-01 (blue) – 54-44 Obama.
MD-02 (green) – 59-39 Obama.
MD-03 (purple) – 61-37 Obama.
MD-04 (red) – 88-11 Obama, 56% black.
MD-05 (yellow) – 66-33 Obama.
MD-06 (teal) – 63-35 McCain.
MD-07 (grey) – 72-27 Obama, 56% black.
MD-08 (light purple) – 67-32 Obama.
There’s really no downside to making MD-01 a swing district; it doesn’t hurt any of the other Democrats, and anything the Democrats do will make the map look less ugly. Trying for 8-0 is overreaching.
http://swingstateproject.com/d…
No district worse than 59% Obama, except for the 1st, which is 56%. Both AA majority districts are preserved.
Yes the districts are ugly, but so are the current districts.
I laughed when I read your second paragraph: ‘I don’t know whether this has been discussed at any great length here’.
Because, oh yes, it has.
I’d humbly suggest that folks search through the previous diaries & comment threads prior to posting their latest redistricting maps.
of the Republican legislatures and governor’s want to agree to non-partisan redistricting than I’d be more than willing to say the same should happen with the Dems. Since that won’t fly, Dems need to maximize their representation as effectively as possible. So if it’s legal, for 8-0 no matter how ugly the lines. That’s what this site is for, afterall!
It is not difficult to find a 8-0 map with good districts in Maryland.
And like you tell, they are not reasons for do not it.
With some improvements I see 8-0 maps with both black districts over 50% black and with every district clearly over 58% Obama.
Thank you by the map 🙂
because you diluted the African American population too much in the Cummings district.