It’s looking like the GOP’s marquee candidate in Virginia, as expected, is about to enter the race against Jim Webb (or an open seat race, if Webb retires as has been threatened). We don’t have a source beyond Politico’s Mike Allen, but here’s what he knows:
George Allen, the former U.S. senator and Virginia governor, plans to tell supporters within a week that he is mounting a campaign to retake the Senate seat he lost to Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) in 2006. Allen, 58, the most prominent 2012 challenger to announce so far, has begun to line up key staff members.
While a Webb/Allen rematch would be one of the nation’s hottest general election races, there’s still the little matter of the primary election, where Allen already faces tea partier Jamie Radtke and may face a higher profile rival from the right. Former state party chair Jeff Frederick, in a just-released interview, is already promising he won’t back Allen:
He was complicit in all the big government conservatism that came out of the Congress during his years in the Senate, cheerleading for it all and never leading against it. Allen was a go-along member of the GOP majority that lost power because it lost its principles, and he really is the opposite of the ideal candidate for those of us looking for a constitutional, first-principles, non-GOP-status-quo type of candidate. George Allen is the poster child for the establishment.
For some perspective on that position, Allen’s lifetime ACU rating was 92.6.
You have to think a tough primary is the last thing the GOP want here. He could emerge unelectable.
I think Webb has a really good shot at re-election even though his election in ’06 was really close. Now he’s had time to brand himself so Virginians know he’s not a “left wing liberal who wants to take their guns and make their children gay” or whatever the GOP smear line of 2012 will be.
This is Virginia, surely the GOP has somebody fresher than the guy who lost last time.
I think Allen can and will beat Webb, mostly because Webb just isn’t willing to do the legwork involved in being a Senator. I honestly don’t see why he’ll run again for a job he obviously hates, but I also think Allen knows he has a much better chance at beating Webb than Kaine so he is intentionally trying to piss Webb off and thus keep Webb in the race.
I’ve said this a few times already and pardon some of you for hearing my broken record but as an active VA Democrat I do not fear George Allen, in fact I would welcome him. I think Webb or Tim Kaine beats him. If neither of those runs some serious marketing is needed. My reasons are as follows:
1)Allen while he very narrowly lost in 2006 that was in a midterm electorate. Running with Obama the turnout will be much higher and the African-American vote which is 20% of the population will definitely be out. Ask Tom Perriello or Glenn Nye if that can make a difference in down ballot races. Additionally, while VA has been a killing field for Democrats since 2008 population shifts have not been kind for team red. The southern conservative part is slowing and the northern moderate/liberal side is growing fast. Simply put I’d rather convince voters in Loudoun or Prince William County to vote for me than voters in Roanoke or Franklin County.
2)Webb has very tangible legislation and achievements that he can show. Yes he may not be the best at rallying the base or building the party or doing town hall events but he did sponsor the new GI bill legislation which is extremely popular and has been an advocate for prison reform. He has voted for most democratic legislation and that will be used against him. Off the top of anyone’s head what was Allen’s signature achievement in his term?
3) Macacca is not going away. Allen is damaged goods and has extremely high negatives for a challenger. Webb was outspent 2 to 1 and still won in a midterm turnout. This year he will not be outspent 2 to 1 and stands to benefit by Obama targeting Virginia which will be a huge battleground state. Possibly only Ohio and Florida may be more engaged per capita than VA is my prediction.