Ugh, really?
North Dakota Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad announced today that he will not seek reelection, creating a potentially prime pickup opportunity for Republicans in a GOP-leaning state.
“After months of consideration, I have decided not to seek reelection in 2012,” Conrad said in a statement. “There are serious challenges facing our State and nation, like a $14 trillion debt and America’s dependence on foreign oil. It is more important I spend my time and energy trying to solve these problems than to be distracted by a campaign for reelection.”
Not the way I’d like to see this cycle start!
UPDATE: Roll Call has some more insights into Conrad’s motivations, and possible Democratic successors:
Sources close to the Democrat told Roll Call Conrad made a final decision over the holidays and that it was for personal reasons, not political. After 26 years in the Senate by the end of his current term, the Budget Committee chairman will be ready for new challenges, the sources said….
But the early decision gives the party plenty of time to find a top-tier candidate to run in his place. Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s name has already been floated as a potential candidate, though Pomeroy and former Chief of Staff Bob Siggins recently joined Alston & Bird to work on the firm’s health care team.
UPDATE 2: No, actually, Pomeroy’s not sounding like a candidate, according to his just-posted comments at Politico Arena (though optimists might point out it’s not quite a Sherman-esque statement):
I’m about two weeks into a new job. I’ve changed course and I’m not looking back.
The Hill has more extensive lists of potential other candidates for the Dems:
The strategist listed former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) and her brother, broadcaster Joel Heitkamp, as possible candidates….
On the Democratic side, state Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor is considered a contender for statewide office, and state Rep. Corey Mock, who ran for secretary of state last year, is also being mentioned as a possible candidate….
he was a better senator and democrat than bayh. with bayh it was ughh, we lose a seat, but he’s gone, with him it’s why, kent, kent?
this is a pain in the ass. I’m thinking Kent Conrad is feeling lonely up there in Washington since Pomeroy and Dorgan are gone. The three were close.
he retired once in the past and then returned. This time it’s much less likely…
The Dems start at 51-49. They need to work their asses off for McCaskill, Webb, and Tester. Luckily, it’ll be a presidential year and we have MA, NV, and maybe ME on the table.
When I heard this news, though, I wanted to punch the wall. I need cheering up.
Who’s in/ Who’s out? Just my cursory and uneducated guesses.
Pomeroy – probably OUT. Didn’t he just take some sort of law or lobbying job a few weeks ago?
Heitkamp – ? Don’t know. Passed up the chance to run this year, though that could be the very understandable desire not to run against Hoeven. I’d guess she jumps IN, but far from certain.
Berg – ? This may be his only chance for a promotion (as ND seems to re-elect its Senators for very long periods) and he could have a lot more influence as a Sen than a Rep. If he’s IN (and I think that he might) he’ll have to announce early in order to get some second-tier foes out of the race and into filling his vacant house seat.
Dalrymple – OUT. He did run for Senate a while ago, but I imagine he could get used to being Governor.
Stenjehm – probably IN. This would be a golden opportunity for him to move up. Though to some extent it depends on the other moving pieces (perhaps a run for Gov or House is also possible.)
Wrigley- depends on Stenjehm. If Stenjehm’s in, I think he runs for AG instead. If not, I’d say he’s in. Based on Stenjehm above, I’d say OUT.
Kalk – OUT. There’s definitely going to be some sort of open statewide seat in 2012, and I think he switches his campaign there rather than try and take out some much bigger names.
The Dakotas were split in two to give the GOP more power.
The North Dakota Senate Delegation was 2 Democrats in 2008, now it will be 2 Republicans after 2012… lovely….
Damn that is a massive dagger. Part of Conrad probably didn’t want to go through a long and vicious campaign like what he would have likely gone through with tons of 3rd party money that would have poured in. Already he was being attacked. He probably said f that I am not dealing with that. That is such a shame as he was a pretty good Senator and it will be hard to hold that seat without him. In an open seat condition it has to at least lean GOP thought I have no idea who can be recruited on both sides.
Conrad was probably about the worst retirement this cycle that we could have had. Best of luck to him in his future endeavors and I am glad that we had him while we did.
I think we just lost the Senate.
Heitkamp or a Tester-esque candidate to run.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
We may lose ND and NE, but if these enthusiasm numbers hold up then we’ll be in good shape in VA, and in fighting shape in MO, MA, and NV. Also in position for a decent reversal of fortunes in the house.
Dorgan reluctantly retired after learning Hoeven was going to run. He would be 70 in 2012 and could serve two more terms.
Typically, a younger candidate would be preferable since they could hold the seat for a longer time. But, North Dakota may no longer be such a hospitable place for Democrats. A Dorgan candidacy would immediately change the dynamics of this race and make it a Tossup at the very least.
Patty Murray should at least give Dorgan a call and see if he can be convinced to run. If Dan Coats can come back, Byron Dorgan certainly can too.
Roger Johnson, head of the National Farmers’ Union
Merle Boucher – ND House minority leader
David O’Connell – ND Senate minority leader
Wayne Sanstead – Superintendent of Public Instruction
Of course it’s going to be difficult to hold this seat, but not impossible.
I thought that the prospect of gutting social Security would get him all excited for another term. But, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. they start running ads against him, he runs away scared just like a typical conservadem. Someday someone will elect a conservadem that isn’t a total coward, but that day is not today.
It would have been nice, just this once, for one of our guys to retire during a GOOD cycle instead of running away scared.
It seems that Patty Murray leads off with a strikeout this cycle. Perhaps the good news in all of this is that social Security might not end up being gutted after all–there’s no way Conrad would have quit if that were on the table.
that things that this is way to early to postulate. Remember in early 2009, when Bunning, Bond, Voinavich and, Gregg all announced their retirements? People here, and a lot of places were talking about a veto-proof majority for the Democrats. The point is, we really have no idea what the environment will be like in 2012, other than turnout will likely be better, as it is a presidential year.
Pomeroy was our only real hope barring a Delaware-style tea party miracle.
Fact: Berg only got 10k more votes than Pomeroy’s 2008 opponent… Pomeroy lost because he got 90k (!) less votes than 2008. With higher turnout and higher dem enthusiasm in 2012, there’s no particular reason to say ND is not in play, both in the House and Senate. If the Republicans manage to turn independents back toward favoring electing democrats, a decent dem can win this seat.
Just wanted to throw this out there again on its own – what do you guys think the chances of Rick Berg trying to make a quick move up are? If he passes on this, odds are he will never be a Senator (as ND senators tend more often than not to be lifers). But running for Senate is likely to be significantly harder than holding on to his House Seat. Running for Sen after 1 term in the House is not unheard of (Brownback being the most prominent example) but it might not be all that easy either. Thoughts?
… look at this chart of party strength in North Dakota. ND has been consistently strongly Republican at all levels right back to statehood … except for a brief period in the 1980s (farm crisis?) Take a look at the statewide officeholders. You’ll see all three of Conrad, Dorgan and Pomeroy. In essence, all of ND’s recent Democratic Congressional strength has stemmed from the vestiges of that era.
Cat Food Commission Kent has his sights set on social security. At least he won’t be able to do damage beyond next year. And Conrad was one of the prime reasons there was no public option in the health insurance reform bill.
Dorgan was a real Democrat who’s sorely missed. Can’t say the same about Kent.