Looking at WI voting patterns, it seems that there pretty much have to be three Democratic districts in the state: one in Milwaukee, one in Madison, and one along the western border with Minnesota. But if the GOP wanted to be really nasty, they could pack Madison in with the heavily Democratic regions along the Western border into one super-democratic district and allowing them to take over all the other districts in the state. This map accomplishes a pretty solid 6-2 split in the WI delegation for the GOP, while simultaneously strengthening the districts of reps Ryan, Duffy, and Ribble.
The Democratic vote dump in the 2nd connects Madison, La Crosse, the counties just south of Duluth, and some other highly Democratic counties in the SW region, forcing reps Kind and Baldwin into one district. I would have added in Ashland Co, but rep Duffy lives there (reps Duffy and Ryan are both in the unfortunate situation of living in the most democratic areas of their districts, interestingly). Rep Ryan’s 1st is probably shifted the most to the right of any district in this map, due to his seniority in the house. It loses the Dem-leaning areas of Racine and Kenosha, and gains a lot of more rural territory. Some of this territory in the SW corner of the state is ancestrally Democratic (although it voted mainly GOP this year), but the rest of the area is very conservative, which has the effect of giving Ryan a pretty safe seat for as long as he wants it. Ryan seemed to have a lock on his old seat, but if the GOP is smart they’ll probably try to make it safer; his old district was won by Obama in 08 (although some of that may have been due to the fact that WI-01 borders Illinois and contains areas like Racine and Kenosha that are suburbs of Chicago). Perhaps more importantly, Ryan is actually incredibly conservative for a swing district like his, this analysis by Crisitunity back in 2009 found him to be the house GOPer in the 110th congress most to the right of his district (the GOP version of Nate Silver’s Most Valuable Democrat, if you will). This seems to suggest that in the future Ryan could be vulnerable in his current district, although he hasn’t shown any signs of it yet. Anyway, under this map, he probably wouldn’t be vulnerable anymore. Racine and Kenosha are moved to the 5th and 6th, respectively. Those districts have moved slightly to the left to help other districts, but they are still solidly GOP districts anchored in very conservative territory. The 4th in Milwaukee has gotten slightly more Democratic, and is now majority-minority (47% W, 33% B, 15% H), which helps the surrounding districts a little. The 8th is changed a little in partisanship; it has lost some light red areas in the NE corner of the state for deep red areas around Manitowoc and Sheboygan. The 3rd now stretches east from Eau Claire to Oshkosh. It is probably the most Democratic of all the districts other than the 2nd and 4th. And finally the 7th has now lost the most Democratic parts of the district is now much safer for rep Duffy.
The upper midwest has generally had very little history for gerrymandering in the past, so there could be a good deal of political fallout for the GOP if they decide to push a plan like this. They might be able to get away with chunking the south of Duluth counties into the 3rd, but something like this, although not terrible by the standards of states like CA, MD, or TX, would be the worst gerrymander WI has seen in ages.
the wikipedia article for WI-06 has maps of WI’s congressional districts back to 1860. Amazingly clean and non-gerrymandered.
Is one impressively awful district..
Kind or Baldwin?
I can see 3 of these districts flipping to the Dems. Ryan’s district does get rid of of Racine and Kenosha, but now it includes Beloit and all of Rock County, Dane County, and some pretty Democratic areas of the Southwest Wisconsin. While Walworth county is reliably Red, the areas in the North of the District are only lean Republican at best. So Ryan would still be in a marginal district.
As for the new 3rd, that would be ripe for a Democrat, in fact I would say it is lean Dem. It contains Eau Claire, Stevens Point, Oshkosh, and some Democratic rural areas.
I would say even Ribble’s district can be vulnerable. Appleton and Green Bay are trending blue and even with the nasty areas of Sheboygan and Manitowoc county, these areas are becoming more amenable to voting for Democrats than they have been.
The fundamental problem with doing any solid redistricting is that outside of Dane county and Milwaukee county and its suburbs, the state is fundamentally swingy. The same areas that voted for Obama in 08 voted for Johnson and Walker last year. These areas of very evenly divided. That is why outside of Moore’s, Baldwin’s, and Sensenbrenner’s districts, the PVI is not beyond 5 points any way.
on WI. I have looked at just swapping counties around and not doing a Madison to Land Superior district. I can do 5-2-1(with 3rd being several % more republican). You can do compact.
I did look at all many of those congressional maps on WI on a later post. I just can’t believe we will see this nasty old district. Call me old fashion but this district is too nasty for my tastes.
That being said its a stunning acheivement
thanks for posting it. I can see a snake of sorts to LaCrosse county but not to Lake superior. Even the laCrosse snake involves splitting Dane which I would be reluctant to do it. Not because it can’t be done but this is Wisconsin-not NY or PA. People don’t that in WI–I think.Hope the Republicans aren’t trolling for ideas here…
Would you be able to post a close up of the Milwaukee and Madison areas, perhaps at the county level? For Milwaukee I am curious to see how you divided up the city and the suburbs, as even between the suburbs in the Milwaukee county there are large partisan differences.
In terms of Madison, I would like to see how you divided up the Madison suburbs as that would affect the bench available to take on Ryan.
All but the two suburban Milwaukee districts would be winnable for Democrats in a 2008 type year. That doesn’t mean that they actually would, but it’s definitely possible.
One thing to keep in mind is that at least for now, all of Dane County is pretty much uniformly Democratic, not just the city of Madison itself. As development increases around Madison and towns go from being rural areas to “Madison exurbs,” they actually get more Democratic, which is probably an anomaly compared to the rest of the country.
(As I think your map is easily a dummymander)
Basically, it makes Ron Kind’s district more Democratic by gaining Wood and especially Portage (Stevens Point) Counties, while giving up St. Croix (one of a dozen or so McCain counties in WI, lots of population) and Pierce (swingy, 54% Obama). This makes Ron Kind’s district even safer in open seat environs, but it also makes WI-07, which also gains the solid gop rural Vilas county, which makes WI-07 a tilt GOP district rather than tilt D. WI-08 loses Appleton proper and takes Mantiwoc and 1/2 of Sheyboygan. Baldwin and Ryan’s districts stay mostly the same, save for Ryan’s district taking some of New Berlin in Waukesha. Petri’s Fond Du Lac – Oshkosh district now takes Appleton and uberconservative Ozaukee and Washington counties, while Sensenbrenner takes some swingy central WI counties. WI-04 stays basically the same.
About as best as you’d want to aim for the GOP. To do more would be foolish IMO.
they might technically be part of Chicagoland, I forget, but they’re not really suburban Chicago. Even places in northern Lake County like Gurnee and Zion are pretty far from Chicago, let alone Wisconsin. I’ve also heard the theory that Obama’s overperformance in Indiana was due to the Chicago connection, and while that would work better than Wisconsin (since Lake County, IN actually is in the Chicago sphere), it still strikes me as a bit sketchy.