Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
208 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
I’m interested in doing some research on ballot propositions. Does anyone know a good source to find the text of initatives and referenda and vote data? I know of Ballotpedia, but does anyone have anything else.
Thanks in advance.
I think the House/Senate could go either way. Most interested in the house and the key regions the dems need to win back the house. It looks like California/Florida are the biggest wildcards, Upstate New York/New Hampshire are key in the northeast. Mid atlantic is trying to hold the north carolina seats/make a comeback of some kind in virgina. Midwest Obama needs to campaign hard for mid west house dems in Illinois-Wisconsin-Michigan-Minnesota maybe Omaha to. Any other thoughts? I’m thinking the republicans perspective is to just protect as many of these new incumbents as possible through redistricting but regardless I think those areas are key to success regardless of how badly some of them get drawn.
This is completely OT, but earlier this week, there was a thread where someone made a comment about the political nature of a lot of the Western states’ boundaries. This all came in a discussion about Kent Conrad’s open ND Senate seat, with the comment being about how a major reason there are two Dakotas is because Republicans wanted an extra couple of Senate seats.
As it turns out, I had recently read a few articles on this very subject and dug out an old NYT piece about Nevada, from 1887 that was extremely funny. I thought I’d repost it here, just for kicks.
Background: Nevada was by far the smallest state in the country for nearly a century of its existence, and statehood was only pushed through in order to boost Lincoln’s reelection. Shortly thereafter, its population crashed when the silver rush ended, and for years easterners would deride Nevada as a “rotten borough,” etc., given that it’s voting population was only about 12,000. As a result, there were numerous proposals to merge the state with the then-territories of Idaho and/or Utah. In fact, a bill to attach the Idaho Panhandle to Washington – the first step in a process meant to the remainder of Idaho to Nevada – passed Congress but was vetoed by Grover Cleveland. (It would have certainly have produced a bizarre-looking state, for sure.)
Around that time, the NYT published an editorial on this topic that notes local opposition to the merger from the Mormon community in Idaho.
They Could Take Nevada
NYT
April 10, 1887
In the course of some remarks about the proposed annexation of Southern Idaho to the dying State of Nevada, the Salt Lake Herald, an organ of the Mormon Church, makes an important admission.
…
The Salt Lake Herald now declares that Mormons are opposed to the annexation project and that they do not desire to get possession of Nevada. But at the same time it says:
“There has been no time within the past fifteen years when the Mormons could not have gained political control of Nevada six months after they had set out to do it; they have had the voters and the ability to colonize them in the ‘sagebrush State.’ If the Mormons had hankered for statehood enough to induce them to make the sacrifice required, they would long since have controlled Nevada, made their own laws, and sent to the United States Congress two Senators and one Representative of their own choosing. The Mormons want nothing to do with Nevada. They recognize it as politically and socially the rottenest of American commonwealths, and as worthless materially; and they have no ambition to make the sacrifice necessary to its moral, political; and material redemption.”
political data for PA, I decided to draw a “designer” state senate district for myself. If I were crazy enough to run, I would probably want one that looked exactly like this:
77% Obama, 67% white, and balanced between Philadelphia (mostly Center City) and it’s near suburbs in Montgomery County.
He is down 16 v Huck, 7 v Romney, 5 v Gingrich, and tied with Rick Perry. This seems very over optimistic to me, but then again this is the same sample that gave Republicans (even relatively unknown ones) huge leads in the senate race. Who knows, maybe the purpling of Texas is happening faster than I thought.
SARAH PALIN’s husband TODD is caught up in a sleazy sex scandal, The ENQUIRER has learned!
Political bloggers are digging into incredible claims that the “First Dude” – father of the couple’s five children – cheated on his wife with a female massage therapist who was busted for prostitution!
Normally I view the Enquirer as total BS but they do have pretty good track record when it comes to political sex scandals.
Last night, the Democrats picked a replacement for a departing Democrat on the Council. Said replacement will stand for general re-election in November; I think the terms are four years with elections in pre-presidntial years (i.e. mod 3).
This is significant since the Democrats currently control the Town Council 5-4, having flipped it back in 2007 from R control 6-3.
I haven’t heard much about this, but this Tuesday the Democratic Mayor of Omaha, Jim Suttle, will have his fate decided in a recall election.
The mayor’s critics have accused him of financial mismanagement. In its recall petition, the Mayor Suttle Recall Committee cited “excessive taxes, broken promises and union deals that cost taxpayers millions and threaten Omaha’s economic future.”
Jesse Kelly’s reaction when he heard that Giffords might be forced to give up her seat, “I can run again so soon? Hallelujah!” (He didn’t really say that but he sent his lawyers snooping around to see if that would happen and if there would be a special election to fill her seat.)
Who have been the worst statewide candidates in the the past 15 years? What defining characteristics define such candidates? Lack of charisma? Blowing a large lead? Having a strong opponent?
Also, if you have more than one suggestion rank them. I’d like to see if theirs any continuity in who people suggest.
btw, James, excellent song choice. Bandwagonesque is probably the most underrated album from the early nineties.
I’ve been thinking about redistricting and just how screwed the NC Dems are, which got me wondering, does North Carolina have a lame duck session? If so, why didn’t the Dems sneak in a redistricting reform bill before they left? Sure it would be blatantly self interested the Republicans would have screamed bloody murder, but they would be able to play the “good government” card and ultimately the public doesn’t much care. Seems like someone was asleep at the switch. (Alternately its possible these things are governed by NC constitution and not so easily changed, I just don’t know.)
ATLANTA – Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has told several prominent Republicans in his former state of Georgia that he intends to run for president in 2012, according to an online column Friday in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
I’m not sure he stands a chance in any of the first four states (IA, NH, SC, NV), unless perhaps both Huckabee and Palin opt out (which is at least in the realm of possibility).
I calculated the 2010 Arizona Gubernatorial race by Congressional District and compared it to a couple of other elections. I figured this was a bit short for a diary, but I apologize in advance because it’s rather long for a comment.
AZ-01 Brewer 55.41-41.14
Goddard performed 3.11 points worse than Obama
Kirkpatrick performed 2.54 points better than Goddard.
Gosar performed 5.76 points worse than Brewer.
AZ-02 Brewer 63.05-33.75
Goddard perfomed 4.32 points worse than Obama
Thrasher peformed 2.72 points worse than Goddard.
Franks performed 1.77 points better than Brewer.
AZ-03 Brewer 55.81-41.13
Goddard performed 1.21 points worse than Obama
Hulburd performed 0.05 points worse than Goddard.
Quayle performed 3.66 points worse than Brewer.
AZ-04 Goddard 67.55-26.78
Goddard performed 1.82 points better than Obama
Pastor performed 0.71 points worse than Goddard.
Contreras performed 0.72 points better than Brewer.
AZ-05 Brewer 52.42-44.19
Goddard performed 2.98 points worse than Obama
Mitchell performed 1.01 points worse than Goddard.
Schweikert performed 0.48 points better than Brewer.
AZ-06 Brewer 62.19-33.57
Goddard performed 3.98 points worse than Obama
Schneider performed 4.50 points worse than Goddard.
Flake performed 4.13 points better than Brewer.
AZ-07 Goddard 56.07-40.83
Goddard performed 1.12 points worse than Obama
Grijalva performed 5.91 points worse than Goddard.
McClung performed 3.33 points better than Brewer.
AZ-08 Brewer 54.03-43.46
Goddard performed 2.97 points worse than Obama
Giffords performed 5.23 points better than Goddard.
Kelly performed 6.80 points worse than Brewer.
Biggest overperformers relative to Goddard: Gabrielle Giffords (+5.23), Ann Kirkpatrick (+2.54)
Biggest overperformers relative to Brewer: Jeff Flake (+4.13), Ruth McClung (+3.33)
Biggest underperformers relative to Brewer: Jesse Kelly (-6.80), Paul Gosar (-5.76)
The two most important take-home messages from this data are that, 1. AZ-01 is now voting in state elections like it does in federal elections (it used to be somewhat more democratic at the state level), which needless to say is bad and 2. AZ Dems are still doing just fine or even better with the Hispanics who do actually show up to vote.
Bishop wins Rep. Richmond’s HD-101 in all-Dem race, GOP easily picks up SD-22, tie the state senate, could have a majority very soon, with possible party switches and another special election soon.
Tonight, in SD 22, D turned R state Rep. Fred Mills won the special election to replace D turned I Sen. Troy Hebert. This win brings the Senate to a 19-19 tie with one vacancy. Mills won with 60% of the vote, avoiding a run-off. In HD 101, Cedric Richmond’s former seat, Democrat Wesley T. Bishop beat two other Dems to win with 75% of the vote.
The Senate will likely go Republican for the first time since Reconstruction on Feb. 19, when Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry is likely to beat Democrat Nathan Granger in SD 26, for the seat of former Sen. Nick Gautreaux (D).
I’m surprised that Alison Grimes recent announcement to run for Sec of State in Kentucky hasn’t received any attention on here…
I was wrong. I really thought she was going to do something else…
Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm and her husband, Dan Mulhern, will teach at the University of California-Berkeley, and together they’ll write a book about her experience leading Michigan during one of its worst economic episodes, according to Politico.com today.
The two will continue to live in Michigan, however
, and are searching for a permanent home in the state, where she was governor for eight years and attorney general for four.
Since leaving the governor’s residence in Lansing they have rented in the Lansing area, where their son, Jack, attends middle school.
Democrat Granholm, 51, also will be a paid contributor to NBC’s “Meet the Press.” She and Mulhern have joined the Keppler’s Speakers Bureau for speaking engagements, she told Politico.com in an interview.
…
She said she was not approached for a job by President Barack Obama’s administration, and doesn’t plan to run for office again, adding, “I’m done with that,” she said. “I’m ready for a new thing.”
I’m still of the mind that she’ll run for the Senate whenever Levin bows out, regardless of what she’s saying, now. BTW, for anyone wondering, this is her alma matter, and she grew up in California.
Again hearing that Jim Webb (D-VA) may be named SecDef when Gates steps down sometime this year.
Most interesting tidbit to come out now is that based on VA state law there would be an appointed Senator, BUT that person would only hold the office until a Special Election this November.
What effect a US Senate Special Election would have on the state legislative races is anyone’s guess. I have a source in the Governor’s office who confirmed earlier this year that the WH had inquired into who McDonnell would pick. As I understand it the Governor refused to discuss what he would do in a hypothetical case, my guy seemed to think this would be a deal breaker – his words were “They didn’t like our answer”.
However, if we are only talking about a 6 month placeholder (although I think it’s nearly certain McDonnell would pick Allen, though someone like Tom Davis may appeal if Allen want to be free to campaign full time) the WH may be more intersted in getting the guy they want at DoD rather than protecting one highly unreliable vote in the Senate.
Now who would run from the Dem side in a ’11 Special? Seems it would be very hard for Kaine to step down at the DNC and ramp up a campaign in short order, but it would be a great opportunity for Gerry Connolly to take a free shot at the upper chamber…baring that I’d say Periello is a good bet, or maybe the Other Moran Brother.
Giannoulias reflects on the emotional toll his narrow loss to Mark Kirk and the bruising campaign took on him:
The race, he said, also took its toll on his relationship with fiance Tara Flocco, a Chicago philanthropist. The pair have put their wedding off for the time being.
“I tried so hard (to shield her),” Giannoulias said. “I got some death threats, which, a lot of that stuff was really tough to see and feel. We’re trying to figure it out. … Relationships are tough as is, before adding this stuff.”
And if you wondering if he’s going to run for some office in 2012, he’s not going to. He’s either going to go into teaching or something in the private sector. And he’s writing a book about his bid for the US Senate.
I’m interested in doing some research on ballot propositions. Does anyone know a good source to find the text of initatives and referenda and vote data? I know of Ballotpedia, but does anyone have anything else.
Thanks in advance.
I think the House/Senate could go either way. Most interested in the house and the key regions the dems need to win back the house. It looks like California/Florida are the biggest wildcards, Upstate New York/New Hampshire are key in the northeast. Mid atlantic is trying to hold the north carolina seats/make a comeback of some kind in virgina. Midwest Obama needs to campaign hard for mid west house dems in Illinois-Wisconsin-Michigan-Minnesota maybe Omaha to. Any other thoughts? I’m thinking the republicans perspective is to just protect as many of these new incumbents as possible through redistricting but regardless I think those areas are key to success regardless of how badly some of them get drawn.
This is completely OT, but earlier this week, there was a thread where someone made a comment about the political nature of a lot of the Western states’ boundaries. This all came in a discussion about Kent Conrad’s open ND Senate seat, with the comment being about how a major reason there are two Dakotas is because Republicans wanted an extra couple of Senate seats.
As it turns out, I had recently read a few articles on this very subject and dug out an old NYT piece about Nevada, from 1887 that was extremely funny. I thought I’d repost it here, just for kicks.
Background: Nevada was by far the smallest state in the country for nearly a century of its existence, and statehood was only pushed through in order to boost Lincoln’s reelection. Shortly thereafter, its population crashed when the silver rush ended, and for years easterners would deride Nevada as a “rotten borough,” etc., given that it’s voting population was only about 12,000. As a result, there were numerous proposals to merge the state with the then-territories of Idaho and/or Utah. In fact, a bill to attach the Idaho Panhandle to Washington – the first step in a process meant to the remainder of Idaho to Nevada – passed Congress but was vetoed by Grover Cleveland. (It would have certainly have produced a bizarre-looking state, for sure.)
Around that time, the NYT published an editorial on this topic that notes local opposition to the merger from the Mormon community in Idaho.
Link: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/a…
political data for PA, I decided to draw a “designer” state senate district for myself. If I were crazy enough to run, I would probably want one that looked exactly like this:
77% Obama, 67% white, and balanced between Philadelphia (mostly Center City) and it’s near suburbs in Montgomery County.
(Replacement post to fix the margin).
Here is the link
He is down 16 v Huck, 7 v Romney, 5 v Gingrich, and tied with Rick Perry. This seems very over optimistic to me, but then again this is the same sample that gave Republicans (even relatively unknown ones) huge leads in the senate race. Who knows, maybe the purpling of Texas is happening faster than I thought.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011…
http://www.nationalenquirer.co…
Normally I view the Enquirer as total BS but they do have pretty good track record when it comes to political sex scandals.
Last night, the Democrats picked a replacement for a departing Democrat on the Council. Said replacement will stand for general re-election in November; I think the terms are four years with elections in pre-presidntial years (i.e. mod 3).
This is significant since the Democrats currently control the Town Council 5-4, having flipped it back in 2007 from R control 6-3.
I haven’t heard much about this, but this Tuesday the Democratic Mayor of Omaha, Jim Suttle, will have his fate decided in a recall election.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/…
This’ll be an interesting one to watch.
USA and Field Poll clash in Berkeley about who was the better pollster during the California gubernatorial race.
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito…
Jesse Kelly’s reaction when he heard that Giffords might be forced to give up her seat, “I can run again so soon? Hallelujah!” (He didn’t really say that but he sent his lawyers snooping around to see if that would happen and if there would be a special election to fill her seat.)
Dirtbag.
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/…
Who have been the worst statewide candidates in the the past 15 years? What defining characteristics define such candidates? Lack of charisma? Blowing a large lead? Having a strong opponent?
Also, if you have more than one suggestion rank them. I’d like to see if theirs any continuity in who people suggest.
btw, James, excellent song choice. Bandwagonesque is probably the most underrated album from the early nineties.
I’ve been thinking about redistricting and just how screwed the NC Dems are, which got me wondering, does North Carolina have a lame duck session? If so, why didn’t the Dems sneak in a redistricting reform bill before they left? Sure it would be blatantly self interested the Republicans would have screamed bloody murder, but they would be able to play the “good government” card and ultimately the public doesn’t much care. Seems like someone was asleep at the switch. (Alternately its possible these things are governed by NC constitution and not so easily changed, I just don’t know.)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41…
I’m not sure he stands a chance in any of the first four states (IA, NH, SC, NV), unless perhaps both Huckabee and Palin opt out (which is at least in the realm of possibility).
http://www.suntimes.com/news/e…
He gets 35% with Pon Raul in second with 11%.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
I calculated the 2010 Arizona Gubernatorial race by Congressional District and compared it to a couple of other elections. I figured this was a bit short for a diary, but I apologize in advance because it’s rather long for a comment.
AZ-01 Brewer 55.41-41.14
Goddard performed 3.11 points worse than Obama
Kirkpatrick performed 2.54 points better than Goddard.
Gosar performed 5.76 points worse than Brewer.
AZ-02 Brewer 63.05-33.75
Goddard perfomed 4.32 points worse than Obama
Thrasher peformed 2.72 points worse than Goddard.
Franks performed 1.77 points better than Brewer.
AZ-03 Brewer 55.81-41.13
Goddard performed 1.21 points worse than Obama
Hulburd performed 0.05 points worse than Goddard.
Quayle performed 3.66 points worse than Brewer.
AZ-04 Goddard 67.55-26.78
Goddard performed 1.82 points better than Obama
Pastor performed 0.71 points worse than Goddard.
Contreras performed 0.72 points better than Brewer.
AZ-05 Brewer 52.42-44.19
Goddard performed 2.98 points worse than Obama
Mitchell performed 1.01 points worse than Goddard.
Schweikert performed 0.48 points better than Brewer.
AZ-06 Brewer 62.19-33.57
Goddard performed 3.98 points worse than Obama
Schneider performed 4.50 points worse than Goddard.
Flake performed 4.13 points better than Brewer.
AZ-07 Goddard 56.07-40.83
Goddard performed 1.12 points worse than Obama
Grijalva performed 5.91 points worse than Goddard.
McClung performed 3.33 points better than Brewer.
AZ-08 Brewer 54.03-43.46
Goddard performed 2.97 points worse than Obama
Giffords performed 5.23 points better than Goddard.
Kelly performed 6.80 points worse than Brewer.
Biggest overperformers relative to Goddard: Gabrielle Giffords (+5.23), Ann Kirkpatrick (+2.54)
Biggest underperformers relative to Goddard: Raul Grijalva (-5.91), Rebecca Schneider (-4.50)
Biggest overperformers relative to Brewer: Jeff Flake (+4.13), Ruth McClung (+3.33)
Biggest underperformers relative to Brewer: Jesse Kelly (-6.80), Paul Gosar (-5.76)
The two most important take-home messages from this data are that, 1. AZ-01 is now voting in state elections like it does in federal elections (it used to be somewhat more democratic at the state level), which needless to say is bad and 2. AZ Dems are still doing just fine or even better with the Hispanics who do actually show up to vote.
Bishop wins Rep. Richmond’s HD-101 in all-Dem race, GOP easily picks up SD-22, tie the state senate, could have a majority very soon, with possible party switches and another special election soon.
http://staticresults.sos.louis…
Tonight, in SD 22, D turned R state Rep. Fred Mills won the special election to replace D turned I Sen. Troy Hebert. This win brings the Senate to a 19-19 tie with one vacancy. Mills won with 60% of the vote, avoiding a run-off. In HD 101, Cedric Richmond’s former seat, Democrat Wesley T. Bishop beat two other Dems to win with 75% of the vote.
The Senate will likely go Republican for the first time since Reconstruction on Feb. 19, when Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry is likely to beat Democrat Nathan Granger in SD 26, for the seat of former Sen. Nick Gautreaux (D).
I’m surprised that Alison Grimes recent announcement to run for Sec of State in Kentucky hasn’t received any attention on here…
http://www.alison2011.com/ if you’re curious
I was wrong. I really thought she was going to do something else…
http://www.freep.com/article/2…
I’m still of the mind that she’ll run for the Senate whenever Levin bows out, regardless of what she’s saying, now. BTW, for anyone wondering, this is her alma matter, and she grew up in California.
Again hearing that Jim Webb (D-VA) may be named SecDef when Gates steps down sometime this year.
Most interesting tidbit to come out now is that based on VA state law there would be an appointed Senator, BUT that person would only hold the office until a Special Election this November.
What effect a US Senate Special Election would have on the state legislative races is anyone’s guess. I have a source in the Governor’s office who confirmed earlier this year that the WH had inquired into who McDonnell would pick. As I understand it the Governor refused to discuss what he would do in a hypothetical case, my guy seemed to think this would be a deal breaker – his words were “They didn’t like our answer”.
However, if we are only talking about a 6 month placeholder (although I think it’s nearly certain McDonnell would pick Allen, though someone like Tom Davis may appeal if Allen want to be free to campaign full time) the WH may be more intersted in getting the guy they want at DoD rather than protecting one highly unreliable vote in the Senate.
Now who would run from the Dem side in a ’11 Special? Seems it would be very hard for Kaine to step down at the DNC and ramp up a campaign in short order, but it would be a great opportunity for Gerry Connolly to take a free shot at the upper chamber…baring that I’d say Periello is a good bet, or maybe the Other Moran Brother.
Giannoulias reflects on the emotional toll his narrow loss to Mark Kirk and the bruising campaign took on him:
http://www.dailyherald.com/art…
And if you wondering if he’s going to run for some office in 2012, he’s not going to. He’s either going to go into teaching or something in the private sector. And he’s writing a book about his bid for the US Senate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c…