The Minnesota DFL, even in the face of a GOP wave-year in 2010, were nonetheless optimistic with Mark Dayton polling very well and with majorities in the state legislature large enough to withstand a wave election. While Mark Dayton was elected, one of the bigger 2010 election shockers was losing the MN legislature, meaning the state wouldn’t be looked to to rack up a few rare wins for progressives with marriage equality and a redistricting map that at the irritates the hell out of Michele Bachmann.
After doing this analysis, losing the state legislature is no longer that surprising as the majorities were very bloated, relied on districts the DFL had very recently won. What I personally assumed was that even if it’s a wipe out in the suburbs and Dayton gets killed there, we’ll win with Greater MN and still hold onto a slim-downed majority. Also, our legislature map-making process makes it so that losing one chamber probably means losing the other. This is because one state senate district equals two state house seats so if you lose both state house seats, you probably lost the state senate seat associated with them, or vice versa. (REDO, YOU’LL ACTUALLY HAVE THE NUMBERS TO GIVE SOME PRIMER SOON ENOUGH.)
| Majority | ||||||
The most important thing this table shows is the high amount of fluctuation that occurred this past decade. After redistricting, the GOP were at their height of legislative power but this quickly collapsed over the decade. This means the majority the DFL had coming into 2010 was weak electorally due to such a large percentage of the caucus coming from formerly Republican districts and as newly elected incumbents themselves. A pro-GOP year came along too soon for our own wave-elected incumbents to solidify themselves so the outcome was everyone getting wiped out.
Also note that the 2009 senate elections are only the changes in two special elections that occurred.
Plenty more after the jump including lots of maps!
BLAH
As for the maps themselves, I didn’t do different colors for gains versus holds simply because there has been so much turn-over and I didn’t think it’d be as useful for comparative purposes. I also used a very tight definition for the metro area so I’d estimate it at only a 30 mile radius from the center-point. (This made it better for map-making purposes.) It’s also hard to see but there are two state house districts for both the cities of Duluth (NE corner) and Rochester (SE corner). (The Rochester ones only once they go blue.)
State House
| 2008 Pres | ||||
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| % of Total Losses | ||||
State Senate
| 2008 Pres | ||||
| % of Total Losses | ||||
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