Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
368 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
continuing my bit from the daily thread, looks like Egypt is going into revolution. I should read what I already have — http://pewglobal.org/2010/06/1…
Overall, support for suicide bombing is much lower now among Muslim publics than it was in the middle of the last decade, although there have been slight increases this year in Jordan and Egypt. And, as in previous years, publics in countries with largely Muslim populations continue to be concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism, both in their countries and around the world.
which makes me hopeful that if Mubarak goes, we won’t get another Iran.
But the risks if something goes wrong are rather high.
Last week I asked who were the worst candidates in recent political history. Now, I’m going to ask the reverse: who have been the strongest candidates in the past ten years?
Democrats’ 2006 House majority only lasted four short years. The only time Republicans quickly lost a big majority was 1948 after winning it in 1946.
I am still shocked at how quickly Democrats lost the House majority. Democrats and the Obama administration really should have planned from day one how they were going to protect the majority.
Portions of this question have already been asked, but I think this is a new twist.
What CD would you most like to live in, taking into account both your Rep, Senators, Governor, AND also the environment in the CD (weather, lifestyle, activities, etc.)?
Grand Rapids- Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land says she is considering challenging U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow in the 2012 election and is encouraged by a recent poll showing her within a few points of the Democrat.
Land, who spoke to The Detroit News while attending the Michigan Republican Party convention at DeVos Place in Grand Rapids, said she plans to meet next week with another possible candidate, former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, before making a decision.
…
The poll conducted Jan. 9-11 showed Land trailing Stabenow 46 percent to 41 in a heads-up contest. Land said that result and other findings in the poll show Stabenow is vulnerable, especially since Stabenow has the power of incumbency and Land had not announced an intent to run.
Land said she senses a strong mood for change among voters and said that was evident at Friday night convention caucuses where a number of veteran GOP district chairs and members of the party executive were voted out.
Democrats have said both Wilson Research and Sterling work with Republican candidates and reject the idea Stabenow is vulnerable.
The poll showed Stabenow leading Hoekstra 47 percent to 41 percent.
Land is a very legitimate candidate. I believe she’s got more votes than the last governor during each of her two elections. Hoekstra is the only other legitimate candidate. The problem for both of them is that they are from West Michigan, which has not been able (with the major exception of Land) to be successful at the state-wide level.
The good thing for Land is that despite being very much an insider in the West Michigan Republican establishment, publically, she is very moderate in her style and the vocabulary she chooses. She’s just the type of Republican that could give Stabenow a serious scare.
I think Ben Nelson is already somewhere in the Republican column though I wouldn’t count him out completely. I think Sherrod Brown is in the same boat as McCaskill, Tester and Webb. I think both Menendez and particularly Stabenow are more vulnerable than this.
John Hamilton is running for Mayor of Bloomington. He is a student council member and local big shot who is married to the now famous Dawn Johnsen, he is brother of Judge David Hamilton and nephew of former Congressman Lee Hamilton. I have heard from a friend that he has better than even chances of winning. Baron Hill has been stumping for him I know. It is my view that he could be a competitive candidate for IN-9 in the future if they don’t dismantle the district too much, I don’t think they will as they rightly think Young is safe as he is, and if it is an open seat. I think Young will likely run for his former boss’s Senate seat in eight years, assuming Lugar still occupies the seat that is. In an open seat in a neutral year Hamilton could ride in with his family name. Him as Mayor creates a really good candidate as a backup option for something in the future that’s for sure and the incumbent Mayor is not Mr. popularity and I don’t see him moving up. Also while we are talking about IN-9 I heard from the same friend that they think former dem nominee for state auditor Sam Locke could be a potential candidate for Congress. I know Locke has made some anti Young comments on his facebook. I like Locke, I really do and hope he runs. He would not win but he would give us dems a reason to show up at least.
noticing that “Discreet Partners Only” ad to the left of the screen? Or is that just me?
random SSP factoid of the day:
The premier (governor) of the Australian state of New South Wales (containing Sydney) Kristina Keneally is actually a native of Toledo, Ohio. During her college years at the University of Dayton she was active in politics and was a registered Democrat. She moved to Australia in 1994 to be with her future husband, Ben who was an Australian native before moving back to the US in 1996 and then moving back two years after their eldest son was born. Keneally became a Australian citizen in 2000 and was elected NSW Legislative Assembly in 2003, she would become premier in 2009 after defeating the incumbent premier Nathan Rees by a 45-21 margin in party wide ballot.
She’s not expected to be premier for much longer as the Australian Liberal/National coalition holds a wide lead over her Labor party in the polls and is expected to sweep the statewide elections in March.
Don’t ask how I know this stuff….
I was looking around the Louisiana political scene for any possible candidates
Well i found one
Richard Ieyoub-Former Attorney General and he apparently he is allied with the liberal wing in the state
Four Republican state representatives have sponsored a bill that would replace first-past-the-post voting with approval voting for all state offices and presidential primaries.
Under this system, voters would select every candidate they approve of (regardless of party), and the candidate with the highest overall vote total wins.
For a definition of “approval voting” – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A… aka — vote for as many candidates as you like — but no more than one vote per candidate.
Hotline talking up Kyl retirement rumors had this nugget;
“But according to recent data from the Arizona’s Secretary of State’s office, the number of registered independents has eclipsed the number of registered Democrats in the state, illustrating the uphill climb Democrats still face in the predominately red state.”
Hmmmmmmm, AZ hispanic population grows, but percentage of Dems falls. Exactly what the heck is going on down there?
continuing my bit from the daily thread, looks like Egypt is going into revolution. I should read what I already have — http://pewglobal.org/2010/06/1…
which makes me hopeful that if Mubarak goes, we won’t get another Iran.
But the risks if something goes wrong are rather high.
Last week I asked who were the worst candidates in recent political history. Now, I’m going to ask the reverse: who have been the strongest candidates in the past ten years?
Democrats’ 2006 House majority only lasted four short years. The only time Republicans quickly lost a big majority was 1948 after winning it in 1946.
I am still shocked at how quickly Democrats lost the House majority. Democrats and the Obama administration really should have planned from day one how they were going to protect the majority.
Portions of this question have already been asked, but I think this is a new twist.
What CD would you most like to live in, taking into account both your Rep, Senators, Governor, AND also the environment in the CD (weather, lifestyle, activities, etc.)?
Could she go the route of Hillary Clinton.
This kind of surprised me. After giving hints over the last few months that she was done in elective politics, and after the general concensus among Michigan politicos that she didn’t have the stomach for another run at anything, Republican Terri Lynn Land has announced she may be interested in challenging Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2012 after getting what she sees as promising poll numbers:
Land is a very legitimate candidate. I believe she’s got more votes than the last governor during each of her two elections. Hoekstra is the only other legitimate candidate. The problem for both of them is that they are from West Michigan, which has not been able (with the major exception of Land) to be successful at the state-wide level.
The good thing for Land is that despite being very much an insider in the West Michigan Republican establishment, publically, she is very moderate in her style and the vocabulary she chooses. She’s just the type of Republican that could give Stabenow a serious scare.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Pure Tossup: Nelson (D-NE)
Tossup/Tilt Dem: McCaskill (D-MO), Tester (D-MT), Webb (D-VA)
Lean Dem: Nelson (D-FL), Brown (D-OH), Manchin (D-WV)
Dem Favored: Stabenow (D-MI), Casey (D-PA), Cantwell (D-WA)
Currently Safe Dem: Feinstein (D-CA), OPEN (CT), Carper (D-DE), Akaka (D-HI), Cardin (D-MD), Klobuchar (D-MN), Menendez (D-NJ), Bingaman (D-NM), Gillibrand (D-NY), Whitehouse (D-RI), Sanders (I-VT), Kohl (D-WI)
Tossup/Tilt GOP: Brown (R-MA)
Lean GOP: Ensign (R-NV)
GOP Favored: Snowe (R-ME), OPEN (ND)
Currently Safe GOP: Kyl (R-AZ), Lugar (R-IN), Wicker (R-MS), Corker (R-TN), OPEN (TX), Hatch (R-UT), Barrasso (R-WY)
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…
I think Ben Nelson is already somewhere in the Republican column though I wouldn’t count him out completely. I think Sherrod Brown is in the same boat as McCaskill, Tester and Webb. I think both Menendez and particularly Stabenow are more vulnerable than this.
John Hamilton is running for Mayor of Bloomington. He is a student council member and local big shot who is married to the now famous Dawn Johnsen, he is brother of Judge David Hamilton and nephew of former Congressman Lee Hamilton. I have heard from a friend that he has better than even chances of winning. Baron Hill has been stumping for him I know. It is my view that he could be a competitive candidate for IN-9 in the future if they don’t dismantle the district too much, I don’t think they will as they rightly think Young is safe as he is, and if it is an open seat. I think Young will likely run for his former boss’s Senate seat in eight years, assuming Lugar still occupies the seat that is. In an open seat in a neutral year Hamilton could ride in with his family name. Him as Mayor creates a really good candidate as a backup option for something in the future that’s for sure and the incumbent Mayor is not Mr. popularity and I don’t see him moving up. Also while we are talking about IN-9 I heard from the same friend that they think former dem nominee for state auditor Sam Locke could be a potential candidate for Congress. I know Locke has made some anti Young comments on his facebook. I like Locke, I really do and hope he runs. He would not win but he would give us dems a reason to show up at least.
SNL clip of Bachmann:
http://politicalwire.com/archi…
noticing that “Discreet Partners Only” ad to the left of the screen? Or is that just me?
random SSP factoid of the day:
The premier (governor) of the Australian state of New South Wales (containing Sydney) Kristina Keneally is actually a native of Toledo, Ohio. During her college years at the University of Dayton she was active in politics and was a registered Democrat. She moved to Australia in 1994 to be with her future husband, Ben who was an Australian native before moving back to the US in 1996 and then moving back two years after their eldest son was born. Keneally became a Australian citizen in 2000 and was elected NSW Legislative Assembly in 2003, she would become premier in 2009 after defeating the incumbent premier Nathan Rees by a 45-21 margin in party wide ballot.
She’s not expected to be premier for much longer as the Australian Liberal/National coalition holds a wide lead over her Labor party in the polls and is expected to sweep the statewide elections in March.
Don’t ask how I know this stuff….
I was looking around the Louisiana political scene for any possible candidates
Well i found one
Richard Ieyoub-Former Attorney General and he apparently he is allied with the liberal wing in the state
Found this on my slashdot RSS – http://freekeene.com/2011/01/2…
For a definition of “approval voting” – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A… aka — vote for as many candidates as you like — but no more than one vote per candidate.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Tomblin – 25%
Tennant – 24%
Perdue – 16%
If Capito runs (which PPP says seems unlikely), she’s favored in the primary. If she doesn’t, Betty Ireland is.
A state obama is up by 8 against palin, but hasn’t been won by a dem since 1964. I’m going to guess North Dakota or South Dakota. Any guesses?
Does this not strike anybody else has a totally unsatisfactory way to judge vulnerability?
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Depending on retirements, few would expect Casey, Kohl, Bingaman, Cantwell or Klobuchar to have much trouble.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
Hotline talking up Kyl retirement rumors had this nugget;
“But according to recent data from the Arizona’s Secretary of State’s office, the number of registered independents has eclipsed the number of registered Democrats in the state, illustrating the uphill climb Democrats still face in the predominately red state.”
Hmmmmmmm, AZ hispanic population grows, but percentage of Dems falls. Exactly what the heck is going on down there?