I guess we can’t consider this a surprise:
Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) announced he will not seek re-election in 2012.
The first-term Senator issued a statement saying he will return to the private sector, removing the possibility of a high-profile rematch with former Republican Sen. George Allen.
“It has been a great and continuing privilege to serve in the United States Senate,” Webb said. “I am very proud of my talented and dedicated staff, which has worked tirelessly to resolve the issues on which I based my candidacy, and to protect the interests of all Virginians in this national forum.”
So who might run in Webb’s place for Team Blue? Perhaps it’s time for a comeback from Tom Perriello, who fought valiantly in 2010 despite occupying a tough district?
I know he said he wouldn’t do it, but politicians backtrack on those things all the time. As head of the DNC, he knows how important it is to keep the majority, and would likely do it if pushed hard enough.
My bet is that Terry is holding out for another run at Governor… any chance Moran is interested in another statewide run?
A better candidate than Kaine, needs a job and would make a far superior Senator.
Run, Tom, run.
Anyone who votes for Obama will also vote for Perriello. Plus he can appeal to a few additional Southern Dems if he needs them to push him over the top. Polls suggest that if Obama wins reelection then he will win Virginia. If Obama wins Virginia then Perriello also wins Virginia. If Obama loses Virginia then losing the Virginia Senate seat will be the least of our problems.
I want to thank Senator Webb for his service. He achieved what he said he wanted: ending the war in Iraq and passing the GI Bill.
Even though Perriello lost in 2010, he still got 48% in a district that’s more conservative than the state as a whole. What’s even better is that he got so close to being reelected by embracing Obama and progressive policies instead of running as a pseudo-Republican. With Obama at the top of the ballot and heavily contesting the state, I don’t see why Perriello would have all that much trouble defeating Allen.
Would back Perriello over the rest who seem to be looking at the race.
It still kind of amazes me how our bench is so shallow even throw it is trending Blue.
Hopefully we can get a top tier candidate for this race unlike the gov rave in 09
I seem to recall he was looked on favorably, but that could be Warner I’m thinking of.
If Kaine was looked on well at the time, then either he or Perriello would make a strong candidate (unless being head of the DNC has somehow tainted Kaine in the eyes of VA voters) in a presidential year.
I’d be pulling for Perriello, no argument there, but I’d still take a Senator Kaine over a Senator Allen (or Senator Random Tea-Flavored Republican) in a heartbeat.
As former Governor who can not be called a Ultr Liberal
Democrat he would be strong candiate.
2012 will not be 2010.Back In December PPP had Obama beating all of the gang of 4(Romney,Palin,Huchabee,Gingrich) In Virginia.
Plus this gets Kaine out of the DNC.
If Kaine stays out (I would assume Tom would defer to him) Perriello would make a great netroots project for the cycle. I’m talking Lamont/Lieberman like focus. Particularly in terms of fundraising because he will need the help against Allen.
…than having Webb half-heartedly campaign. I think that unless somoene else steps up, it will have to be Kaine, since he is the head of the DNC, and he can’t just let that seat go as a credible leader.
Money + more moderate of two…
This is hardly a slam dunk for the GOP, I have to say. I’m not at all convinced that George Allen would be the best candidate (part of that may be because I just don’t like him), but he does seem to have the inside track right now. I think a fresh candidate who was not too far on the fringe would be better, but I suspect all of Allen’s challengers will be way out there. I almost wish Eric Cantor wasn’t majority leader because he’d be a great candidate.
The thing is, I think Webb would’ve overperformed Obama’s margin, while Kaine/Periello are rather dependent on a strong performance atop the ticket. So, as long as Obama again carries the state, the U.S. Senate candidate should be OK. And, I mean, I suspect Virginia should be a rather simple hold for Obama, that is unless his approval drops sharply and Huckabee is the nominee.
Unlike with Kent Conrad’s retirement, we have a strong bench here. I think either Kaine or Perriello would be great candidates (I favor the later by a slight margin, just because I admired his congressional campaign last year). More importantly, as some of the commentators have suggested above, Allen is a paper tiger.
I liked Webb, but I’d rather not have him in there is he’s going to campaign halfheartedly.
I agree that the Dems would be in good shape here with either Kaine or Perriello. Perriello has already shown that he can avoid losing too badly in rural areas even in the worst possible year, and I get the impression that he’d do ok in swingy suburbs.
I know he wanted to be veep, but does he see running someday, either in 2016, or 2020? if so, the senate could certainly help his i 4 year term governorship, which would lead him towards the seat, unless he thinks biden’s going to get dumped and he’ll be veep in 2012.
A single term for Webb; he’s one of my favorites from the class of ’06 along with McCaskill.
Perriello!
Will Webb’s departure cause any new Republicans to enter the race?
I could see Lt. Gov Bill Bolling entering to avoid having to run against Cooch for gov. in 2013. As for Cuccinelli himself, I don’t think he can leave the AG spot until his health care lawsuit is done, which likely won’t be before 2012.
“In the wake of the news that Sen. Jim Webb will not seek another term, ex-Rep Tom. Perriello’s 2010 finance director Anna Scholl emails “Tom has not made any decisions yet about the future and is keeping his options open.”
Translation? Waiting for a call from Kaine…
See, Evan Bayh, this is how you retire from the Senate, with plenty of time for Team Blue to find a great candidate.
As a former governor who’s won statewide already, Kaine must be considered the stronger of the two–and polling backs that up. Perreillo’s 51-47% sophomore performance in a R+5 is impressive … still, it’s only 1 of 11 VA districts, meaning his base is less than a tenth of the state.
Connolly is good, but he may find his appeal limited to NoVA, and I fear he could underperform downstate. Glenn Nye is kinda meh, and would probably be better off at the State Department for a spell anyway. But I think the general consensus is right on: Kaine is Plan A, with Perreillo a very solid Plan B.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
The last battle always indicates what happens next apparently. McDonnell wins and Dems lose House seats and because the state is traditionally Republican Warner, Kaine and Obama winning the state apparently means nothing. Also, the polls be damned. Sigh. Vichy quote in there too from some “Dem” strategist.
The latter if not the former.
Now, notpjorourke, putting your dislike for Webb aside, in what ways does Webb compare to Kaine as a candidate?
A lot of people have hit it elsewhere but I wanted to add my two cents as a VA Dem.
Overall I am not too surprised by Webb retiring. I wished that he would have run again but it isn’t a sure loss (like when Byron Dorgan retired last cycle) or a great gain (like when Chris Dodd retired). Having had my first real campaign work volunteering for Webb in 2006 and having met him a few times I will definitely miss him and wish him well. That said, Virginia will be a very hotly contested state in 2012 so whoever runs is going to really benefit from this. I agree with what DCCyclone said about Sabato’s tweet; as Obama goes so goes the Democratic Senate nominee. I do believe that the demographics of the state Combined with a toxic Republican candidate in George Allen (right now I am assuming that he wins the primary) whoever the Dem is they start with a floor of at least 40%. Allen is too polarizing to win in a blowout.
Top candidates in my view are:
1. Tim Kaine – 2 statewide elections and he can raise money. I think he’d beat George Allen and honestly people could care less about the DNC. He was non-controversial and has a high name ID. If Patty Murray hasn’t called him, she is about to.
2. Tom Perriello – I think that he is best served deferring to Kaine on the Senate and if VA-05 gets a more favorable demographic (doubtful) then he should challenge Hurt. Otherwise 2013 is his for the taking. I don’t see him having a hard time raising money and he would instantly get a lot of 3rd party money dumped on his behalf. He can build a name ID in NoVa and would fit in very well. He is only 36 so his time is not up. Having volunteered countless weekends for him, he is the real deal and no doubt would make a great Senator but his time will come.
3. There is a clear drop off here but the idea of Rick Boucher and Glenn Nye don’t excite me at all. I’d prefer someone younger like State Senator Chap Petersen but he’d have to drop his Senate re-election race most likely and start raising money. Hard to envision that scenario.
All this talk about Tom Perriello reminds me of Scott Kleeb, who way outperformed in a 2006 Nebraska House race. The netroots then used that to tout him as a NE-Sen candidate in 2008, but of course he got trounced by Mike Johanns.
The fact that Perriello did well in two House races does not mean that he’ll do well statewide. He isn’t known statewide and charisma/firing up activists isn’t as powerful as it is in a smaller House race.
Another name to consider is former Lt. Gov. candidate, Mike Signer. I actually think his resume would play well in a Virginia federal race given his national security background. Plus you have to consider he is young, energetic, has already made the rounds in VA and he won’t have a voting record for the GOP to pick apart.
Why can’t any of the big stuff happen I am in front of a computer? Damn corporate people expecting me to actually work.
Anyway, here’s a list of thoughts, in no particular order, about all sorts of things and people related to the Virginia Senate race. I’m sure I will have more, but for now:
1. Right now, my gut tells me that we want Kaine as the nominee. He’s a former governor and lieutenant governor, so he’s known statewide, and while his base of Richmond isn’t going to add anything, perhaps it will help us by maximizing turnout. He’s also socially moderate or conservative enough that it becomes an asset rather than a liability, since it will give him an in with those outside the base while not alienating the base. But Perriello–man, I like this guy. I don’t always agree with him, but I like the fact that he’s a proud Democrat and managed to almost win in a very tough race. I have no doubt that if he lost, barring the type of year that is somehow worse than 2010, it’d be by the slimmest of slim margins. He’s probably got more room to grow than Kaine and will probably excite the base more. I could go back and forth and probably will for a long time, but I’d be happy with either of them. That said, I kind of want Kaine to run and Perriello to find a House district to run in and then take over Mark Warner’s Senate seat when he runs for president and probably wins.
2. I don’t see why Kaine’s tenure as head of the DNC will mean much of anything. He hasn’t don’t anything remotely controversial as far as I can remember. He hasn’t taken any votes or been associated in any significant way with what Democrats in congress have been associated with. I don’t see any sort of real danger to Kaine from this–at least none beyond the usual stuff thrown at Democrats. People seem to have a positive impression of him from his time as governor and lieutenant governor, and that’s what will matter most. People will also remember Allen’s time as governor and senator, but it’s probably much more vague and/or negative, since the thing he will be most remembered for, at least at first, is making a racist comment and being fascinated with nooses.
3. I don’t understand Allen’s appeal to moderate and Independent voters. He might not be toxic to them, but unless we are seeing a massively conservative electorate like we saw this year, with a lot of right-leaning Independents, I’d say the Democrat will probably have the edge. In a lot of races, you want to tack towards the center, but if Allen or the other Republican candidate does that, I don’t see it working. That’ll probably enrage the base. Perhaps the Republican candidate will be skilled enough to walk the fine line between talking about cutting government spending while not seeming too anti-government, but I imagine that any of these guys who goes full on Teabagger will open themselves up to easy attacks that will sink them in upper echelon areas. Meanwhile, the Democrat can talk about nothing but deficit reduction, bettering public education and public universities, and lowering health care costs, with tax reform added in every other day.
4. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been picked, but if the numbers I’ve seen are any indication, there are around 278,000 unregistered black voters in the state. If 2012 is like 2008, the Obama campaign will place a heavy emphasis on registration and mobilization. In this particular case, I think whichever black voters are pulling the lever for Obama are doing the same for the Democratic senate candidate. We are talking about a large and possibly fairly easily expandable pool of voters that the Republicans won’t have access to, especially if the candidate is George Allen. I don’t imagine the situation being that much better with Asians or Hispanics.
5. McCain absolutely did contest Virginia. Perhaps he started working the state later than Obama and perhaps he didn’t have as strong a ground game, but he didn’t didn’t ignore the state. He spent less than Obama spent there, but I think that was the case for every state, simply because he didn’t have as much money as Obama had.