AZ-Sen: Kyl to Announce Retirement

From the Politico:

Sen. Jon Kyl will announce his plans to retire at a press conference in Arizona later today, a source confirms to POLITICO.

Kyl’s retirement could make this into a competitive race, depending on who pulls the trigger for Team Blue. (Kyl’s own numbers were fairly strong against a number of high-profile Dems.) More as we get it.

UPDATE: 6th CD GOP Rep. Jeff Flake is very likely to enter the race in the coming days. The Politico has some comments from a few other possibilities, including Brock Landers himself:

Former Rep. John Shadegg told POLITICO he was “very surprised” at the news and called Kyl’s retirement “a loss for Arizona and a loss for the nation.”

“I hope that the rumors are wrong. I hope Jon Kyl is running again,” he said, declining to discuss his interest in the seat.

Reached on his cell phone, first-term Rep. Ben Quayle said he had no comment on Kyl’s plans, accused the reporter of calling the wrong number and then hung up.

In a text message, former Rep. J.D.  Hayworth wrote, “stay tuned.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: Real Clear Politics reports that Janet Napolitano (Democratic ex-Gov. and current DHS Sec.) has been calling around about the race. It also mentions the possibility of GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who’s termed-out and can’t run again in 2014… and since every other Rep. in the state has been mentioned, Trent Franks too. Via the Twitter, there’s word of two more guys who’ve been hitting the phones: Democratic Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, and Republican Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio (the repellent Arpaio, who’s in his 70s, seems to threaten to run statewide every two years and then not do it, though).

237 thoughts on “AZ-Sen: Kyl to Announce Retirement”

  3. really good Democratic candidates. A lot of those able to win 40-45% of vote, but no more. It’s still very much mad about “illegal immigration” Arizona….

  6. It depends on how well Obama does here. If he can add two or three points to his total, that leaves the Democratic Senate nomination in a position where they don’t have to outperform him by a huge percentage.

  8. Its possible Giffords recovers quick enough and makes a run.  Probably too wishful thinking there though.

    I would be happy with Goddard.  I would have said Phil Gordon, he seems to have really good bipartisan credentials and McCain would likely not campaign against him, but PPP showed the people that do know him don’t like him.  So much for that.

  9. Giffords ran against a nutjob in kelly and still barely won.  I heard from voters in the district that would have stayed home if she was running against anyone sane.  She is a good candidate but the dem brand in the state was terrible.  Brewer won 54-42 percent after a debate meltdown.   Brewer had as bad a debate as you could ever have and still won easily.  Arizona was gone for the dems with Obama as president suing the state before the shooting.

    If she had run against a Paton she would have lost by a decent margin.  Mitchell lost by 9 percent because he wasn’t running against kelly.  All the internal polling showed Paton as the stronger candidate than Kelly.

    It defies logic that a dem would have won statewide while the president of their own party is suing the state.

    If you look at Napalitano’s numbers they are 40 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval.

    The state was gone for dems with Obama suing the state.

    Her district even before the shooting was going to be more protected given the growth in southern arizona.

    I don’t see how she would have given up a safer seat to run an impossible campaign.

    If anything the shooting has made it possible for a dem to win as the tone in arizona is now different and instead of the issue of obama suing the state and a dem rep saying arizona should be boycotted their is sympathy for giffords and the tone is different.

    Before the shooting a dem had no chance to win this seat.  So saying that giffords would have won the seat in 2012 if it wasn’t for the shooting is unrealistic.  The dem brand in arizona was terrible during the 2010 election.  A nutjob almost beat Grijavla in a safe dem seat.

    Remember if she had run and lost she would have been out of congress it isn’t like running for president as a senator and keeping your job.   I don’t see any way she would have given up her seat to run in arizona with obama suing the state and an almost imposssible campaign.

    If you look at the congressional campaign numbers in arizona across the state the 2010 election was a blowout.    

  10. She ran in a good dem year in 2006.  I see McCain retiring in 2016.  You would have the open governor’s race in 2014.

    I just don’t see at her young age that she would have run in arizona statewide in 2012 with the president suing the state and with so many options down the road at a better time for a dem to win.

    Smart pols run with the wind at their back not with the wind in their face.  Look at the dems clamoring to run in 2008 instead of 2004.

  11. A few things:

    1. As my subject line suggests, we are one-third of the way there, meaning that one of the three seats currently held by Republicans that would be genuinely good pick up opportunities should the incumbent retire or get knocked off just saw its incumbent do just that. It’s unclear what will happen in Indiana and Maine, but this is a piece of genuinely good news, because while probably start out as the underdogs unless Giffords is the nominee (more on this below), a big part of the problem in taking the seat just went away. (You could also say the same about Texas, but even someone as optimistic about that as I am would be nuts to say Arizona isn’t a better option for the Democrats than Texas is.)

    2. I am not sure what to think about who the Democratic nominee will be. My guess is, if it’s Giffords, the race starts off as tossup at the absolute worst. I’m not sure who might run on the Republican side, but I doubt there’s anyone who is strong enough to beat back the sympathy she will have going for her. But will she be the nominee? I have absolutely no idea, because I don’t know what her condition will be like, but I can almost guarantee that if she’s recovered, the nomination is hers if she wants it. As cynical and insensitive as this sounds, I am dying to see polling on this.

    As for who else might run, in this race, as well as many others, I wouldn’t be so hung up on the candidate as long as he or she didn’t have some sort of overwhelmingly negative attributes.

    3. I also think this all but guarantees Obama contests Arizona. It’s probably the one state that he didn’t target as seriously as Virginia or Ohio in 2008 that he would have targeted in 2012 anyway, and with an open Senate seat, what reason is there not to? Why not give a push to a candidate who can keep or expand the majority? Some have said it’s harder than it seems because of the immigration issue, but even if that is the case, it’s still worth putting significant resources in until it’s clear it’s not making any difference, if it ever comes to that.

    4. What are the chances a Teabagger gets the nomination? Kyl was supposedly liked by the Tea Party crowd, but now that this is an open seat, I have to think the chances of someone from that end winning are significantly improved. And if a current office holder like Gosar or Schweikert who may not be heavily associated with that part of the base (if that is the case; I am not sure) has to go up against a Teabagger, would that hurt him in the general as much as it might in another state?  

  12. will be a potentially very divisive Republican primary.  I wonder if someone like Congressman Jeff Flake wants to run — he’s much more moderate/libertarian than people like Jan Brewer and certainly JD Hayworth.  It really could be a “mainstream conservative vs “‘bagger-type” primary.

  13. So, the real question is who jumps in for the GOP?  Will it be someone from the house seat or someone else?  Of course, there is the danger that someone to far on the fringe gets the nod and gives an opening to the Dems.

    I agree that without GG, the Dems do not have an obvious candidate.  I would try to recruit an ambitious young and charismatic Hispanic candidate.  They probably wouldn’t win, but it would get some extra turnout for Obama and other down ticket Dems.

    For the GOP, I’m hoping for Flake as he’s one of the most libertarian-leaning members in the house.  I don’t dislike Shadegg because he’s good on spending (my key issue), but he would be number two.

  15. 1. Felecia Rotellini, the former AG candidate, only lost by 5, the narrowest statewide loss I believe.

    2. On the “young hispanic candidate” idea, fun underproportioned representation facts: Did you know there seems to be only one Hispanic member of the Phoenix City Council?  And he’s only half Hispanic: Michael Nowakowski.  Phoenix seems to be 41.5% Hispanic/Latino, and there are 8 city council seats.

    3. Out of the 90 members of the Arizona Legislature, only 11 are in the Latino Caucus: http://www.azlcf.com/Latino%20…  That’s 12%, vs. 30% of the population of Arizona (well, 30% of the population of Arizona is Hispanic, but I would guess the two groups pretty much overlap in Arizona).

  16. Just to recap the Dem Senate field from 2010:

    Rodney Glassman, thirtysomething Tucson Councilman and 2010 nominee, got slaughtered by McCain (60-35), though that was technically better than 2004 (76-20!). Still, probably a non-starter.

    Cathy Eden, 2010 Senate primary candidate (polled second after Glassman). Educator, former legislator, state agency director under both Dem and GOP Governors. Age 61 (here’s her page from 2010: http://www.edenforaz.com/#/).

    John Dougherty, Phoenix Times journalist. Investigated Arpaio and broke the Keating Five story. Polled 3rd behind Eden

    Randy Perez. Civil rights and labor lawyer/activist, polled 4th in the primary.

    There were no challengers to Goddard in gube primary, and there’s no other recent statewide officers other than Goddard and Napolitano. State Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has drawn some “rising star” press, but barely Senate age and doesn’t sound like an AZ statewide candidate (liberal, openly bisexual). Wonder if there’s anyone more electable among the Dem legislators?

    Without Giffords, Eden and maybe Dougherty sound interesting, but Goddard or Kirkpatrick would be better.

    On the GOP side, let’s hope for JD Hayworth! That “stay tuned” sounds promising to me.

  17. If Quayle or Hayworth wins the nomination, you might well see a single-digit race, but, even then, I suspect it’ll be an uphill climb for the Democrat. I don’t think Giffords would’ve prevailed here, and, though Goddard seems like a terrific guy, he’s on the side of an issue where the vast majority of Arizonans are on the other side. If Jeff Flake wins the nomination, I would expect at least a 15% win from him.

  18. If he is the nominee, no Democratic candidate — that includes Napolitano, Goddard, Rotellini, Paul Newman, or a healthy Giffords — will come within 10 points.

    The only thing Flake can’t guarantee that he can do is win a Republican primary against an entrenched incumbent, say John McCain.  That’s the only reason he hasn’t done this before.  If he’d run for Governor in 2006 against Napolitano, I’m pretty sure he would have won.

    Sorry, but I’m Tekzilla on this one.  Unless Flake loses in the primary, this seat is off the table.

  19. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…

    who knows if the source is even a significant insider, but it could turn out that the field won’t develop until Giffords is given a bit of time to make a recovery… waiting until summer seems reasonable.  I wouldn’t be surprised that the party insiders have viewed Giffords as their best shot at AZ-SEN for some time.

  20. wgo do you think will be the next whip?  I know Lamar!’s been trying to work his way up the latter, but he’s been thwarted at ever attempt.  Might Thune, if he decides not to run for president try to be the whip?  OFC after seeing what happened to daschle and McGovern, he could decide not to attempt to go national, or figure Daschle and McGovern’s problems had more to do with SD’s conservative nature than entering ntl politics.  

  23. 1)If Flake runs, I think he is the extremely heavy favorite (9 to 1 or so). I see him as the toughest person for us to beat.

    2)If Hayworth or Quayle wins the GOP nomination, I think this is anywhere from a tossup to maybe lean D. I think Quayle has a snowball’s chance in hell of making it in the primary, and Hayworth doesn’t have much more.

    3)There’s no obvious Tea Party candidate here. Flake’s libertarianism fits well with some but not all of the Tea Party, Hayworth has a following among them but he is very damaged, Brewer could pick up the anti-immigration crowd but I’m not sure how Tea Partiers would choose if they had to choose between her and Hayworth or Flake.

    4)Again I think Flake is the strong favorite to win the GOP primary. If I had to rate the GOP primary crowd I would say Flake 1st, Brewer 2nd, (big gap) Hayworth 3rd, Shadegg 4th, (big gap) Quayle 5th.

    5)I think a potential GOP wild card could be Vernon Parker, former mayor of Paradise Valley and Joe Arpaio’s endorsed candidate to succeed Shadegg in the 3rd last year.

    6)Goddard is by far the Dem’s best candidate for this at the moment, but I think we might have a better shot if we could get a strong pro-SB1070 candidate.

  24. 1. Jeff Flake would probably be the strongest Republican candidate, but at the same time it’s very easy to see him folding like a cheap suit. I cannot stress enough how difficult his life will be in the primary given his past support for comprehensive immigration reform. If he makes it out of that, I disagree that the general will be a walk in the park–he’s a “libertarian,” but he’s much more passionate about economic libertarianism than any issues that could actually pick up swing or Democratic voters.

    2. If I never see Rodney Glassman’s name mentioned on this forum again, I will be a happy man. Given his egomania, though, I could see him trying to parlay his crushing loss at for AZ Democratic Party chair into another Senate campaign.

    3. Speaking of the AZ Democratic Party chair, how about Andrei Cherney?

    4. Felecia Rotellini really wants to be AG and hasn’t show any interest in doing anything else. She only lost by 3-points, though, btw.

    5. Napolitano’s name is mud in Arizona right now, but hey, everybody loves a comeback story, right?

    6. I think Goddard’s lost one too many statewide races to deserve the right of first (or second or third) refusal. He’s somewhere between tier one and tier two.

    7. I think that Giffords does deserve the right of first refusal. I wonder if Tucson v. Phoenix melodrama would get in the way of that. She knows how to do something almost no other Democrat in Arizona has figured out how to do, which is run a competent grassroots campaign. Given the goodwill out there towards her, the grassroots will really flourish.

    8. Please don’t bother dredging up names from the state legislature to run, especially from the Dems. There’s all of 9 Democratic State Senators at this point and they’re all too liberal. Defeated Pinal County Senator Rebecca Rios was probably the only person who could have had a chance at a viable run, but as mentioned above she lost by like 10 points out of nowhere to some dude, so her star has faded.

  25. So my comment will be this will be all Giffords once she recovers and she reluctantly joins the race because she can’t go to the supermarket anymore without getting harassed non-stop about running.  And the healthcare industry has taught us how easy it is to create a phony groundswell of opinion.  Someone probably just needs to create some sort of Draft Gabby movement and it’ll snowball.

  29. should definitely have the right of first refusal.  I honestly think she would have a great shot at winning, especially if Obama contests Arizona and does well there.  

  30. need to look for a white suburban candidate with lots of moderate appeal to run for this seat. I’m sure someone with more knowledge of the AZ knows a few State reps that fit these qualities. Running a progressive Latino would be a mistake.  

  33. Most possible GOP replacements would be preferable to Kyl, so this is a win regardless.

    But Arizona is now a clear pickup opportunity.  As still somehow common these days, most commenst above completely ignore the near certainty the GOP primary will be a massive clusterfuck of idiocy and rage.  Just look at the comment by Hayworth… it sounds like the clueless dude will actually run!  (And, he would lose to most anyone.)

    The GOP candidate will be weakened by the primary, and a very weak candidate may win.

  35. I stand corrected.

    She would probably be my second choice after Giffords given her smart, passionate campaign last time. I think she just wants to get her name in the papers though; again she seems very focused on the 2014 AG race.

  36. I haven’t read the latest comments, but when I last read them, when they totalled 150 or so, I don’t think I saw anyone bring up Jeff Flake’s position on SB1070. Why is this?

    From what I can tell, he’s not openly against the law in the same way Raul Grijalva was. He seems to be more in tune with what Gabby Giffords thinks: that the federal government needs to get its act together. Granted, I just looked it up, so it’s possible I missed something, but he doesn’t seem like he supports it. And if that’s the case, why won’t this hurt him? I don’t think anyone would confuse him for an immigration dove, of course.

Comments are closed.