Public Policy Polling (2/16-22, Rhode Island voters, no trendlines):
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 47
Scott Avedisian (R): 37
Undecided: 16Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 54
Don Carcieri (R): 37
Undecided: 8Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 43
Don Carcieri (R): 31
Buddy Cianci (I): 22
Undecided: 4Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 51
Buddy Cianci (R): 35
Undecided: 14Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 51
John Loughlin (R): 34
Undecided: 15Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 49
John Robitaille (R): 38
Undecided: 13Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 44
John Robitaille (R): 28
Buddy Cianci (I): 24
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.2%)
I wasn’t expecting Sheldon Whitehouse to be in any sort of trouble — it is Rhode Island, after all, one of the bluest states in the union — but PPP confirms that, even when throwing ex-Gov. Don Carcieri in the mix. In fact, what may be most interesting here is that Carcieri, maybe contrary to the Beltway CW (which doesn’t seem to look any further than the fact that he’s an ex-Gov.), is the least popular Republican option (down 17, and with 41/49 favorables).
Instead, Warwick mayor and noted moderate/Linc Chafee ally Scott Avedisian fares the best among all GOPers, sporting a 36/17 favorable and keeping it within 10. John Robitaille, who narrowly lost the 2010 gubernatorial race, also seems to have made a good impression on voters (40/25 approvals and down by 11), but he’s made pretty clear that he’d prefer to run for Governor again in 2014 rather than for Senate. (John Loughlin is a former state Rep. who ran unsuccessfully for the RI-01 open seat, and Buddy Cianci is the disgraced, long-ago former mayor of Providence, who, thanks to his roguish charm, seems to still have some bipartisan support.)
Avedisian hasn’t ruled out a bid, but a Roll Call piece today by Steve Peoples getting various GOP possible candidates on the record has him sounding pretty iffy: “it’s something that I at least want to give some thought to.” The article also points out (as we did in our digest earlier today) that Cranston mayor Allen Fung, who presents a similar profile to Avedisian, just took himself out of contention, while state GOP chair Giovanni Cicione is downplaying any previous interest and talking up Avedisian and Carcieri instead. The article finally also mentions former Hasbro CEO Alan Hassenfeld, although from what I’d heard he’d been mostly looking at an indie bid, if anything.
Finally, the real issue that seemed to get Rhode Island chosen as this week’s poll subject is gay marriage, which is currently under legislative consideration. Support overall is 50-41, a pretty impressive showing in a state, that despite its blueness, is still notably older and more Catholic than average. That’s including 65% support among Dems, 73% opposition among the sample’s 15% Republican portion, and 47-45 support among indies.
Barring a total collapse or scandal, Whitehouse will be re-elected. He hasn’t done anything that I know of that would cause RI to vote him out.
Every time I hear about Rhode Islands older population, I always tend to think of the drunken Delegate from Rhode Island for some reason. It’s a pretty good film/musical. I remember it being on netflix instant view, so go check it out.
Whitehouse losing but in a 63% Obama state being under 50% is not exactly superman like numbers. Jack Reed for has superman like numbers in RI so its maybe Whitehouse has not completely closed the deal for a lifetime seat.
I imagine the filing deadline is 15 months away so if his numbers are this weak next June maybe a big name will jump in. The odds favor him but Whitehouse needs to make more friends in RI.
I get the feeling many people like me don’t really like whitehouse. don’t forget he beat an extremely popular incumbent (Linc Chafee) who is now the governor only because Chafee was a republican (if Chafee had become an independent he probably would have run). also Whitehouse failed to beat out myrth york for Dem gubernatorial candidate at least once. White house is not very popular in RI, it is only the D after his name that gives him any reason to be ahead. also RI has one of the highest percentage of registered independents in the country I believe
on a Cianci note many people in R-01 still love him (because of his base in Providence wher epeople credit him with making the city a nicer place and the large Italian and catholic communities). heck I would probably vote for him.
last comment only two states have a majority religion (or denomination). Utah-Mormonism, RI-Catholicism. that’s why RI lags behind other New England states with Abortion and Gay rights, the Bishop here has ridiculous amounts of power (he basically excommunicated Kennedy for supporting abortion rights).
male 22 Independent(moderate party of RI) RI-01
to fare the best (he is very moderate and popular), but in Presidential year even he will not be able to win. Natural for him would be run for Governor, but he will not run against Chafee, so possibilities here are limited too (until, probably, 2018). RI-02? It’s unlikely to be free soon too..))) So, while he is young enough to wait – it’s difficult for him to find a suitable race..
Whitehouse has always been a favorite of mine along with Reed, They are lucky to have such a good Senate delegation, although I like mine a little more (Gillibrand and Schumer).