I went through the many losing Democratic candidates of 2010 and compared their losing margins to Obama’s 2008 margins. It started out as an exercise to figure out who I would want to come back for a second run. In any event, I have ranked them, separated by incumbents, open seats, and challengers to Republican incumbents. As for challengers to Republican incumbents, I have only listed the top 10 challengers, as well as 9 heralded challengers who underperformed Obama by double digits. Interesting to note that not a single Democratic challenger to any Republican incumbent outperformed Obama’s margin in his or her district.
A positive number means the 2010 Democrat outperformed Obama by that much. A negative number means Obama outperformed the 2010 Democrat by that much.
INCUMBENTS
1. MS-04 – Gene Taylor +31: Could easily win if he came back.
2. AL-02 – Bobby Bright +25: Republicans better be careful how they draw Montgomery districts.
3. MO-04 – Ike Skelton +18: Could win if he came back, but presumably he will not.
4. ID-01 – Walt Minnick +16: Little hope of regaining this seat, with or without Minnick.
5. VA-09 – Rick Boucher +15: Same as Skelton.
6. TN-04 – Lincoln Davis +12: This seat is probably gone for good, with or without Davis.
7. MS-01 – Travis Childers +10: Childers comeback win unlikely but maybe not impossible.
8. TX-17 – Chet Edwards +10: This seat is gone for good. Edwards lost by 25.
9. GA-08 – Jim Marshall +8: Would love to see Marshall mount a comeback.
10. MD-01 – Frank Kratovil +6: Maryland trifecta needs to draw Kratovil right back in.
11. SD-AL – Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin +6: A shame she is becoming a lobbyist.
12. AZ-01 – Ann Kirkpatrick +4: Kirkpatrick is a strong candidate. Would love to see a comeback.
13. CO-03 – John Salazar -1: Definitely would like to see him run again.
14. NY-13 – Mike McMahon -1: Same.
15. PA-10 – Chris Carney -1: Same.
16. VA-05 – Tom Periello -1: Same, or even better he could run for Senate.
17. ND-AL – Earl Pomeroy -2: Doesn’t sound like he plans to run for anything unfortunately.
18. FL-02 – Allen Boyd -3: Primary forced him to vote for HCR, which hurt in the general.
19. OH-06 – Charlie Wilson -3: I dream of Ted Strickland running for this one.
20. SC-05 – John Spratt -3: Too much to hope the old timer would mount a comeback.
21. AZ-05 – Harry Mitchell -4: Would not mind a comeback bid.
22. NC-02 – Bob Etheridge -6: The Choker sealed his own fate.
23. OH-18 – Zach Space -7: Surprisingly large margin of victory for Gibbs.
24. NJ-03 – John Adler -8: Not overly enthused with Adler.
25. NY-19 – John Hall -8: I like Hall, but he’s not the most energetic fundraiser.
26. TX-23 – Ciro Rodriguez -8: Would like to see a new Dem candidate here.
27. TX-27 – Solomon Ortiz -8: Same here.
28. IN-09 – Baron Hill -9: Huge enthusiasm problem for Indiana Dems.
29. NY-24 – Mike Arcuri -9: Arcuri was looking good in the polls.
30. OH-16 – John Boccieri -9: Thought Boccieri would do better than he did.
31. CO-04 – Betsy Markey -10: Pretty solid run by Gardner to beat Markey comfortably.
32. MN-08 – James Oberstar -10: I suspect Cravaack is going to be tricky to take out.
33. NM-02 – Harry Teague -10: Ran into tough candidate in former rep Pearce.
34. MI-07 – Mark Schauer -11: Thought he would do much better than he did.
35. PA-03 – Kathy Dahlkemper -11: Bad result for Dahlkemper against lackluster candidate.
36. NY-20 – Scott Murphy -12: Murphy ended up performing quite poorly.
37. FL-22 – Ron Klein -13: Not that excited about a Klein comeback.
38. IL-08 – Melissa Bean -13: Really amazing and scary that Walsh won this thing.
39. NV-03 – Dina Titus -13: Reid turnout almost pushed Titus over the top.
40. NY-25 – Dan Maffei -13: At least as bad a loss as Bean’s.
41. VA-02 – Glenn Nye -13: Mediocre run from mediocre candidate.
42. PA-08 – Patrick Murphy -16: Murphy ran into a tough opponent in Fitzpatrick.
43. FL-24 – Suzanne Kosmas -17: Kosmas really got shellacked here.
44. IL-14 – Bill Foster -17: Number inflated by strong Obama showing.
45. NH-01 – Carol Shea-Porter -18: Shea Porter was never the best fit for this district.
46. OH-01 – Steve Driehaus -18: Chabot beat the polls. Tough district in midterms.
47. WI-08 – Steve Kagen -19: Kagen the victim of horrible WI enthusiasm.
48. IL-11 – Debbie Halvorson -23: Halvorson ran into a tough candidate in Kinzinger.
49. OH-15 – Mary Jo Kilroy -23: Kilroy never seemed to have much traction here.
50. FL-08 – Alan Grayson -24: Grayson, Hare, and Kanjorski tied for last … perfect.
51. IL-17 – Phil Hare -24: Please don’t run again, Phil.
52. PA-11 – Paul Kanjorski -24: You are the weakest link, goodbye.
OPEN SEATS
1. WV-01 – Mike Oliviero +14: Heated primary probably made the difference.
2. AR-01 – Chad Causey +13: Same here, although Causey lost by a lot more.
3. AL-05 – Steve Raby +7: Solid run by Raby in very tough district.
4. AZ-03 – Jon Hulburd +4: Probably says more about Quayle than Hulburd.
5. SC-03 – Jane Dyer +3: Very strong run by Dyer in impossible district. Good tea leaves in SC.
6. KS-04 – Raj Goyle -4: Very professional campaign by Goyle.
7. LA-03 – Ravi Sangisetty -4: Young attorney ran stronger than I expected.
8. TN-03 – John Wolfe -4: Beneficiary of third party taking 10% of the vote.
9. MO-07 – Scott Eckersley -5: Solid run in impossible district.
10. FL-12 – Lori Edwards -6: Beneficiary of high profile Tea Party candidate.
11. TN-08 – Roy Herron -7: Impressive wins by Fincher in the primary and the general.
12. AR-02 – Joyce Elliott -9: Dems can take this one back with a better district or candidate.
13. FL-25 – Joe Garcia -9: Garcia burdened by statewide Florida enthusiasm problem.
14. NY-29 – Matt Zeller -9: Decent run by young Zeller in a tough district.
15. OK-05 – Billy Coyle -10: Professional run here from Coyle.
16. KS-01 – Alan Jilka -12: Strong “recruit” in district that is beyond impossible.
17. WA-03 – Denny Heck -12: Meh. I would have hoped for a better result here.
18. GA-07 – Doug Heckman -13: Credible run against impossible odds.
19. MI-01 – Gary McDowell -13: Disappointing candidate. Fundraising was slow.
20. SC-04 – Paul Corden -13: Decent, uphill run against Teabagger Gowdey.
21. TN-06 – Brett Carter -13: Mediocre run in impossible district.
22. AR-03 – David Whitaker -14: Pretty well plastered in impossible district.
23. NH-02 – Ann Kuster -15: Overrated run by Kuster. This is a district Dems should win.
24. IN-08 – Trent Van Haaften -16: Similar to McDowell. Slow fundraising.
25. IN-03 – Tom Hayhurst -17: Hayhurst not really competitive here.
26. WI-07 – Julie Lassa -21: Bottom fell out of Wisconsin Dem enthusiasm.
27. FL-05 – Jim Piccillo -22: Easy win for Mike “don’t call me Ted” Nugent.
28. MI-03 – Pat Miles -22: Easy win for Justin Amash.
29. SC-01 – Ben Frasier -22: Not a particularly strong run here. Other SC results were better.
30. CA-19 – Lorraine Goodwin -23: Easy win for Jeff Denham.
31. KS-03 – Stephene Moore -23: Definitely was not the year for a Dem legacy candidate.
32. PA-07 – Bryan Lentz -24: Probably says more about Meehan than Lentz.
33. IL-10 – Dan Seals -25: Dems really, really should have won this one.
34. IN-04 – David Sanders -29: Impressive margin for Rokita.
35. MI-02 – Fred Johnson -31: Bottom fell out in Michigan.
TOP 10 LOSING CHALLENGERS TO REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS
1. SC-02 – Rob Miller -1: Another good tea leaf out of SC. Strong run by cash flush Miller.
2. CA-02 – Jim Reed -2: Did Herger hurt himself with the “proud, rightwing terrorist” incident?
3. MN-06 – Tarryl Clark -5: Decent run by Clark against lightning rod Bachmann.
4. OH-02 – Chili Yalamanchili -5: District has never fully embraced Mean Jean.
5. AL-03 – Steve Segrest -6: Rogers held under 60% again. Hope Dems go after him in 2012.
6. CA-03 – Ami Bera -7: Good run by Bera fell considerably short.
7. NC-05 – Billy Kennedy -9: Credible run against the loathsome Foxx.
8. GA-03 – Frank Saunders -10: Unheralded Saunders probably knows the 10 commandments.
9. OK-03 – Frankie Robbins -10: Plowed by 50+, but really lopsided district.
10. MD-06 – Andrew Duck -10: Bartlett doesn’t ever seem all that popular here.
WE CAME, WE SAW, WE SUCKED – Heralded challengers who underperformed Obama by double digits.
1. FL-10 – Charlie Justice -36: Huge flop right in my backyard.
2. PA-06 – Manan Trivedi -31: By far the biggest margin of Gerlach’s career.
3. PA-15 – John Callahan -28: Dent cruised to double digit victory.
4. OH-12 – Paula Brooks -23: Brooks gave Tiberi very little trouble.
5. NE-02 – Tom White -23: White was tattooed in district Obama won.
6. WA-08 – Suzan DelBene -19: Overrated run like Kuster’s. Dems should win here.
7. CA-45 – Steve Pougnet -14: Held Bono Mack to single digits in Obama district.
8. CA-44 – Bill Hedrick -12: Calvert has got to go in 2012.
9. MO-08 – Tommy Sowers -11: Well funded run against Emerson fell well short.
The site’s syntax got to you though — turned a bunch of your hyphen number hyphens into strikethroughs. Try a colon for the second hyphen, maybe?
post on the same theme. You come pretty close like this to my results, though.
1. In 2008 the democrats won 53% in the Presidential race and yet won 58% of house seats. That would lead one to think that overall congressional maps were not all that unfavorable to democrats. Even in CA the President won 61% while D’s won 63% of house seats. So the landscape for the 2002-2010 period was not unfavorable to the democrats.
2. It will be interesting to see how redistricting affects many of these seats shown above.
3. There are fair number of blue dogs listed above-many of them in unfavorable D districts. Its still early and my crystal ball for 2012 is cloudy right now. Yet based on 2010 districts like Al2 or MS4 or MS1 seem unlikely to kick freshman GOP types out. That’s not even discussing the power of incumbency. In wave years you often see dozens of incumbents lose but in years like 1992-1996-2000-2004
19841988 there are very few incumbents losing. In Presidential years, in fact, you often see divergence in house races versus Presidential outcomes. Not always but sometimes. Clinton wins 1996 but house stays GOP. Bush wins 1988 and house stays D.So I guess its stay tune time. For a variety of reasons, especially redistricting, we are seeing a very slow cycle of announcements for 2012 house races. So there are a lot question marks
I think it would have been useful to show their absolute margin of defeat along with the margin relative to Obama. Some corrections: Quico Canseco should be Ciro Rodriguez and Steve Chabot should be Steve Driehaus. Driehaus was low on your list but I thought he did well considering that the DCCC cut him off.
Agree with you on almost all of your comments, but:
I think you’re being unfair to Ann Marie Kuster. Dems had a total meltdown in New Hampshire in 2010, and she was running against an ex-congressman I fully expect New Hampshire could be one of the only Obama won states to go to the Republicans in 2012. So, I think in her case, this is a misleading – she had a good run.
I’m not sure, depending on how redistricting in Minnesota goes, Craavak will be hard to beat. Oberstar really got caught napping here.
Other than that, good job. Thanks for putting this together.
(and man, Phil Hare really sucked as a candidate, didn’t he?)
And this next time around, she may not have to worry about Joe Heck. Instead, she’ll have to try to wrestle the new NV-04 seat away from the likes of John Oceguera and Barbara Buckley. I’m hoping Dave’s Redistricting App will soon have the new 2010 Census data and recent election results, so I can start putting my Nevada redistricting theories into practice.
Taking the basis of the Obama vote, the candidates what do relatively well in districts that “hate” Obama go to the top, while candidates in districts that “love” Obama go down because it is very hard to be in his level.
Your way works pretty well in close districts, but for very different districts they are not as clear results.
Just some of the politicians what appear in the top, do better than Obama just “hating” Obama a litte. That mean they are better or stronger politicians? I have some doubt.
Just I bid this same way or comparing with the PVI of the districts, but I get not totally happy with the result.
Really appreciate the super job and incredible effort