I always love these sorts of “do-over” polls, and PPP has a particularly good one:
We’ll have our full poll on the Wisconsin conflict out tomorrow but here’s the most interesting finding: if voters in the state could do it over today they’d support defeated Democratic nominee Tom Barrett over Scott Walker by a 52-45 margin.
Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee, of course lost to Walker, by a very similar spread, 52-47. Tom Jensen identifies two important shifts: First, respondents in union households (about a third of the sample) now prefer Barrett by a 64-33 margin, but when asked how they voted in 2010, only went to Barrett 54-40. You gotta wonder about that one-third of union household voters who still support Walker… but nonetheless, this is a big shift, and Walker is doing wonders when it comes to energizing our side.
The other change Tom calls out is that even Republicans are starting to sour on Walker. They say they went for him by a 93-3 spread in 2010, but now only back him 87-10 – that is to say, 10% of Republicans wish they could have voted for the Dem instead.
I’d also like to point out one other detail. Independents tested here claim they voted for Walker by a 45-44 margin last year. In reality, though, exit polls showed indies backed Walker by a far bigger 56-42 spread. So somewhere between last year’s election and now, around 11% of independents could no longer find it in their hearts to say they backed Walker. Now, some of these in PPP’s poll simply didn’t vote last time, and some I’m sure genuinely don’t remember. But some proportion of independents just don’t want to tell a pollster that they pulled the lever for Walker four months ago.
As far as the “re-do” question goes, indies favor Barrett by a 49-44 spread. So it looks like (for the moment) Walker’s “base” among independents is around 44-45%, but about half of the indies who can’t say what they were up to in 2010 are now professing to prefer Barrett. This means Gov. Walker is pulling off a pretty impressive trifecta: He’s alienating members of his own party, he’s struggling with independents, and he’s firing up people who comprise a key part of our base. While David Koch surely approves, if Scott Walker ever wants to get re-elected, he’s definitely doing it wrong.
This year or next. Isn’t there a recall provision in Wisconsin’s Constitution for Governor? I wonder if PPP asked about recall and whether WI voters are willing to do it (which, I guess, would be a reverse of what California did almost 8 years ago).
That SUSA poll that had Christie’s approval at 33% during the budget fights last year? How did that one turn out for this moment? Point is that Governors aren’t popular many times during budget fights, Mitch Daniels had the same thing and where is his popularity now in Indiana?
How hard is it to just cast a damn vote. It’s so frustrating and reminds me of what an old college professor once told me;
“Republicans only need one small reason to vote, Democrats only need one small reason not to”
I don’t see why not, other than inability to get signatures, or they haven’t been in office for a year. if this is the case, i’d say that’s a big risk for dems. Note, i’m not saying they should come back to end the standoff, but that republicans might use the recalls the same way the dems might.
With labor so fired up and Walker suddenly a tea party Cause celebre, it’s safe to say the bases will be equally energized come any recalls. this means,since this it’s WI, should result in a dem advantage.
It’s possible however, that if the stand off is still happening (unlikely, but not impossible) that the republican message of “elect us and this ends” might be popular with people who vote, but don’t have a horse in race. How many people this would be of course, is difficult to say.
Normally it’s a small universe of voters where the dem base would have the advantage, especially since it’s energized and in solid D districts. if the races become nationalized however, with all the news networks bringing attention to them more people could vote, feeling its their duty.
even if the standoff is long gone (i’m not sure when a recall would occur) a bad taste in the mouths of the voters could either have a pox on both your houses mentality, or they could refrain from voting in that race altogether (if the recalls occur with the 2012 election). I don’t think these possibilities are particularly likely, but perhaps warrant a thought.
Voters who change their mind from election to election are basically big babies. Probably this means that Democrats grab the Assembly in 19 months.
but Barrett is still Mayor of Milwaukee.
Recall poll:
Walker (R) vs. Feingold (D)
Let’s see where the results lie.
The truth of the matter is that Wisconsin got exactly what they elected: a total ass that could care less about those “non-richy” people in his state. Hell, I don’t want Walker recalled because he’s the gift that keeps on giving. After 4 years of Walker, Wisconsin will be solidly Democratic for a generation.
i.e. reverse likely voters, or is it everybody (current registered voters)? Jensen doesn’t make that clear. If it’s the latter, then the numbers aren’t very impressive. Walker should be doing worse with RV’s.
Will this be one of those issues that solidifies in the minds of Wisconsin voters “well we tried the Republican and that was a serious mistake”
Ted Heath, 1974.
An ad today defending Walker. The spot itself is utterly banal and mediocre but I think the lede on the reaction to this ad is what isn’t said. There’s no mention of the words ‘collective bargaining in it.’ The whole ad is about how Governor Walker is trying to fix the budget and how teacher need to contribute more, etc. etc.
I do wonder exactly what the purpose of this ad was. Every Wisconsinite whose been following this issue at all knows that its about collective bargaining. Those who haven’t don’t care. So with an ad like this that clearly obfuscates the issue at hand, to whom exactly is it supposed to appeal to?