Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Missouri voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 45 (47)
Peter Kinder (R): 38 (39)
Undecided: 17 (14)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Tom notes that Nixon is unusually popular – and has unusual crossover appeal:
Nixon has well above average approval numbers for a Governor in our polling, with 47% of voters happy with the job he’s doing to 31% who express disapproval of him. Nixon’s numbers have an unusual pattern by party. Only 60% of Democrats like what he’s doing while 24% disapprove. That’s a tepid level of support from within his own party. But he has almost as many Republicans – 32% – who approve of his performance as there are – 40% – who are unhappy. It’s rare to see any politician come that close to breaking even across party lines. And he has very solid numbers with independents as well at a 48/26 spread.
These numbers, while great, are still a good bit removed from those absurdly gaudy POS numbers that showed Nixon with a 61-26 approval rating. I’m much more inclined to believe PPP’s numbers. Kinder’s favorables, I should point out, are just 25-24, but half the state still doesn’t know him, so he has upside. Tom also points out that Nixon’s lead with independents is just 3%, a far cry from the 30+ he beat Kenny Hulshof by in 2008. So I think you gotta give the edge to Nixon, but just given that this is Missouri here, it looks like it’ll be competitive.
What did Jay Nixon do to annoy Dems? Is he that much of a ConservaDem? Does this open him up to a primary challenge?
Competitive but hard to see him losing with job approval like that.
Nixon vs. Blunt in 2016 could be epic, if Nixon wants to go to DC.
Some interesting results in here;
First of all Kinder’s highest no opinion numbers are among Moderate (58%) and somewhat conservatives (58%).
Strangely Nixon’s numbers with women (44-31-26) vs Men (50-30-19) show he has a real gender problem, but also a very fixable, that 31% is probably gone, but 26% of women give him to opinion? Sounds like they are annoyed about something, but havent’ completely jumped ship (yet) and it’s hard to imagine Kinder doing as well with Women as Nixon is going with men (50% approval among men for a Dem is extremely strong). In head to heads Nixo is getting 45% of women which is low-ish, but is breaking even with Men (44-41) grow the support with women and that is a recipe for success.
Nixon’s support among indies is low (48%), but so is his dissaproval (26%), he won’t pull Indys 2-1 on election day, but his 48% says he’s in a good position to win over a small but firm majority, which also is a recipe for success in the general.
Much can change as Kinder gets to be better know, and without a benchmark poll (complete with full crosstabs like moderate AND Independent AND Gender tabs) it’s tough to tell exactly who the softies are and where the real growth potential is.
Nixon certainly has to be the favorite in ’12, it won’t be anything like the walloping he gave in ’08, but Kinder has a very tough haul ahead of him…
No not much? Three or so years ago Nixon started to submit budgets that cut spending. The GOP has massive margins in the legislature in MO so budgets without budgets cuts were not going to pass and no tax increases were going to happen.
In states like IL & WI the alternative approach was taken and spending was not cut but rather taxes were raised. That’s why Quinn’s ratings are lousy and Doyle did not even attempt to run for re-election.
Nixon has kept taxes low and cut spending. He has not cut spending as much as the GOP has wanted but has cut enough to avoid tax increases. Nixon has cut the number of state employees every year since 2009 and is clear that more painful cuts are ahead. He is not confronting unions like Christie or Walker but he has mentioned numerous times that Govt headcounts in MO are going down for the forseeable future.
Some democrats are not happy with cuts to education and senior services but he has decent ratings with GOP & Indie types. Frankly I am shocked not to see him over 50% in approval and election numbers.
I don’t know where else to post this, so I just put it on the top post on the site. Apologies to Gov. Nixon and his good news.
I got an e-mail from the Jack Conway Campaign today. I pollster called CN2 Politics (haven’t heard of them before) have Conway with a 52-32 lead, as well as leads in every congressional district.
at the very least they should compare lists Nixon probably has at least a handfull of voters that are definately voting for him but are swing on the senate race.
PPP asks about approval of incumbents job, while asking about favorable/unfavorable opinions of the challenger. These are not the same question.
Most obviously, more people have a favorable opinion of Obama as person than approve of his job as President. Sure, the numbers will always be similar, but approvals will almost always be lower than favorables for a non-jerk.
I couldn’t find POS wording of the question, but that could explain the large difference between the two. No doubt a significant number of those democrats who don’t approve his job so much do have a favorable view of him as a human being.