Maps and Graphs looking at yesterday’s Mayoral Recall on a precinct level. Cross-posted at Stochastic Democracy.
In a lop-sided result that shocked most advisors, 88% of Miami voters voted to recall Mayor Carlos Alvarez (R- Miami). Some Democrats suggested parallels with the likely upcoming recall elections of Republican State Senators in Wisconsin over controversial anti-Union legislation. Republicans were quick to point out that Alverez’s recall campaign centered around the mayor’s property tax increases and perceived concessions to county employee unions.
Alvarez recall vote by precinct. Alvarez did not win a single precinct with more then two voters.
Vote for Republican Senate Candidate Marco Rubio in 2010 vs Yes vote by precinct. Statistically significant but not particularly strong relationship.
The question is what extent this recall was driven by Democrats or Republican disapproval. Nothing passes with 88% of the vote without bipartisan approval, but a deeper look at the data reveals a disproportionately Republican electorate.
Turnout for the 2011 Mayoral Recall Election by precinct
2010 Senate results by precinct, falling mostly on ethnic lines. Note spatial similarity to the previous map.
A graph confirming the seeming relation between the last two maps. Precincts where Rubio performed strongly had much better turnout relative to 2010 then Democratic districts.
Election results under different year’s precinct turnout levels.
These factors combined to produce an incredibly Republican electorate relative to 2010, a year that had by far the best Conservative turnout in a decade. Roughly 50% of votes in the special election came from precincts where Rubio received more than 55% of the vote, these same districts made up 37% of the votes in 2010. If precincts had turned out in 2008 at 2011 levels, Obama would have nearly lost the county, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.
This isn’t bad news for Wisconsin Democrats, they seem to be doing fine. But if they prevail, it’s safe to say that their electorate won’t look anything like this one.
it was likely to see disproportionate Republican turnout, and voter anger against Alvarez was driven primarily by his tax increases coupled with government waste. While voters of any ideological persuasion are right to be angered by this situation, both angles of the issue (tax increases and govt financial waste) are likely to stir up conservatives even more than liberals.