Last time around, I tried to draw a “realistic” map, i.e. one that takes into account incumbents. This time, I’ve made a map based on pure, hard numbers; I didn’t take into account more than one or two incumbents (since they’re the only ones that could hold the district). I’ve come up with a map that cold potentially go as well as 24-16 for the Democrats. I colored all the Republican districts in varying shades of grey, so you can ignore them (they’re essentially an afterthought) and focus on the potential Dem seats.
I’m the first to argue that the Obama numbers are not an accurate representation of the kind of turnout you get in a State Senate election, but it was either using them or squinting at precinct maps on the Virginia Public Access Project site. Either way, once you get up to high-50s Obama performance, the district is going to be pretty solidly Democratic.
The districts are all kept well within the usual 5% deviation allowed for state legislative districts, and most of them have deviations of under 1,000 (which would be about 0.5%).
State view:
Southwestern VA:
Red SW District – This is one of the seats I alluded to in the intro. Sen. Phil Puckett is an extremely conservative Dem, but he’s the only one who could hold this seat, so I left it more or less the same. It’s 62.0% McCain.
Magenta Roanoke/Blacksburg district – 57.8% Obama, this would be no trouble for Sen. John Edwards to hold, since it’s mostly how his district looks today.
Red Charlottesville-area district – Obviously, Sen. Creigh Deeds is drawn out of this one, but like I said, it’s just theoretical. It’s 60.2% Obama.
Green Martinsville/Danville/Emporia district – Here’s where you have to get creative. A district that spans Southside Virginia, taking in as many black voters as possible (the black VAP is 43.8%), creates a district that could be held by most Democrats, not just the current Martinsville-area incumbent, Sen. Roscoe Reynolds. It’s 57.9% Obama.
Richmond/Hampton Roads:
The challenge here is maintaining the 5 majority-black districts, protecting the two other incumbents, and carving out one or two new seats.
Blue Richmond district – This is a new Dem seat carved out of western Richmond and its inner suburbs. It’s 60.1% Obama.
Magenta Richmond district – One of the two majority-black seats, the African-American VAP is maintained at 50.3%. It’s 71.0% Obama.
Light Green Richmond district – Same here, 51.4% black VAP, 73.4% Obama.
Brown Newport News/South Hampton Roads district – Sen. John Miller would go here; it’s much better than his old district, which went for McCain. Now 57.1% Obama.
Pink Hampton district – Another African-American district, 52.3% black VAP. 67.2% Obama.
Orange Portsmouth/Suffolk district – See above, 51.3% black VAP, 65.6% Obama.
Green Norfolk district – Ditto, 50.3% black VAP, 65.2% Obama.
Purple Norfolk/Eastern Shore district – This would be Sen. Ralph Northam’s district. Pretty similar to how it was before; improved Obama performance from 53% to 56.3%.
Yellow Virginia Beach district – Again, one must get creative to preserve the state Senate majority. This district cuts through Virginia Beach’s most Democrat-friendly neighborhoods. Someone like former Del. Joe Bouchard could run here and win. It’s 55.9% Obama.
Northern Neck/Fredericksburg district:
This would probably still be a little Republican-leaning, but it’s 53.8% Obama, and Sen. Edd Houck could probably hold it pretty easily, though you’d have to draw his home in Spotsylvania into the district.
Northern Virginia:
For the five inner-most localities (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Alexandria, and Arlington), I tried to limit the Republicans to two seats and to keep the Dem seats as solid as possible (hence the strips from Alexandria/Arlington to outer Fairfax).
Brown Loudoun district – 55.2% Obama.
Blue McLean/Reston district – 60.1% Obama.
Green Chantilly/Centreville district – 58.4% Obama.
Purple Fairfax City/Falls Church district – 57.8% Obama.
Red Arlington/Annandale district – 62.0% Obama.
Yellow Arlington/Springfield district – 64.8% Obama.
Green Alexandria/Eastern Fairfax district – 65.3% Obama.
Pink Alexandria/Eastern Fairfax district – 68.7% Obama.
Purple Burke/Eastern PW district – 61.3% Obama.
Sky Blue Clifton/Manassas/Eastern PW district – 57.3% Obama.
I see the Senate drawing something similar, albeit one that doesn’t draw out anybody. Deeds can win something less Dem than that.
How old is Puckett? Can he run against Morgan Griffith someday and be the next Boucher?
Nice map. You know what NLS would say about carving up Arlington though! I know that you aren’t taking into account incumbents but your carving up Arlington/Alexandria in that particular way would really help George Barker it appears as he is losing parts of Springfield which would likely go to whoever replaces Whipple. Also it looks as though Mark Herring’s district is the lowest Obama one in NoVa but if he lucks out and gets someone unelectable except in a terrible year like Dick Black who is running he should be fine.