Ohio Redistricting 2011 – Incumbent Protection

So I know that this is redistricting season, and that Ohio has been done by many folks already, but I couldn’t let it go by without giving my feeling on how my home state might re-draw it’s congressional map.  

As we know, the Republicans are in total control of Ohio’s state government following what was an absolutely nightmare of a 2010 election cycle for the Democrats, both here and nationally.  Therefore they will draw the lines.  The following map is my best guess on what they will end up drawing ultimately.  

First of all though, I’m going to start by making a statement on what the Republicans should do, or at least what I would do if I were them.  Ohio is a swing state.  As we’ve seen in the past three cycles, it is especially vulnerable to wide swings in the electorate, going from 12-6 to 8-10 and back to 13-5 by the end of the decade.  What’s going on now is that John Kasich’s ratings are plummeting, mostly due to the fight between legislative Republicans and public employee unions.  Generic R is starting to falter against Generic D on the congressional ballot as well.  If I was a republican, I’d be wary of the potential of a sweep in 2012 by popular democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Barack Obama atop the ticket in the Buckeye State, and would thus try to lock in as much of a wave-proof map as possible.  The best I feel the republicans can do against the democrats in a democratic year like 2006/2008 is 11-5 (maybe 10-6 if you have a big minority turnout in Cincinnati but you’ll be okay most years).  You get to 11-5 by ceding 4 Safe Dem seats in the north, one seat each centered around Toledo (Marcy Kaptur), Cleveland (Marcia Fudge), Akron (Betty Sutton), and Youngstown (Tim Ryan).  The 5th district would be a democratic vote sink surrounding Columbus in central Franklin County, and I would sacrifice Steve Stivers in order to accomplish that.  The reason for it is that, with as far leftward as Columbus is moving, it’s not feasible to keep splitting the county three ways as you’re going to lose at least 2 of them in a bad election cycle, making you worse off then if you sacrifice one.  

But anyways, that’s what I would do.  This map is about what they probably WILL do.  Some have called for a 13-3 attempt, but that would almost certainly be a dummymander of epic proportions.  So without further ado, here’s my prediction, a 12-4 setup in which districts 10 and 18 are eliminated:

District 1 – Dark Blue – Steve Chabot-R – This seat is centered around Cincinnati but includes a bigger section of republican Butler County, which is now about 1/4 of the district’s population.  It’s probable that Obama still won here, but this district certainly has a republican PVI now, maybe R+2, and Chabot would be favored to hold it in all but a really democratic year with high minority turnout like 2008.  You could really make this district safe R if you threw all of downtown Cincy into OH-2, but that would put Jean Schmidt onto the unemployment line more than likely.  

District 2 – Green – Jean Schmidt-R – This district is little changed geographically, but becomes slighly more democratic as it includes more of central Cincinnati and now has all of Scioto County, while losing parts of super-red Warren County.  PVI here is probably down to about R+8 or R+9 in order to shore up Chabot.  This seat would definitely be competitive in a normal or strong year for the democrats because of Schmidt’s suckiness, but a generic R would do fine here.  If Mean Jean can’t win an R+9, then that’s her own fault, and I think the state R’s will view things similarly.

District 3 – Purple – Mike Turner-R – This district is centered on Dayton, and extends a little further east than before while now holding all of Montgomery County.  It’s plausible that the PVI moved a point or so in the democrats’ favor, but honestly, Turner is iconic in Dayton and isn’t going anywhere.

District 4 – Red – Jim Jordan-R – District 4 moves a little bit further north and to the east but outside of that remains very rural and very republican, probably the most republican district in the state, it’s close between it and district 8.

District 5 – Yellow – Bob Latta-R – This seat makes me a little bit nervous from the republican perspective for a couple of reasons.  First of all, a lot of the rural counties in northwest Ohio are turning blue.  Secondly, because of immense population loss, Latta’s district now extends into Cleveland’s suburban reaches.  And not just exurby red areas either, but some democratic strongholds like Oberlin and Elyria in Lorain county.  I can’t take just red areas in Medina and Wayne either because it would hurt Jim Renacci.  The PVI here is still probably R+5 or R+6, but this one could be very interesting in a democratic year or by the end of the decade if NW Ohio keeps trending blue.

District 6 – Black – Bill Johnson-R – This is probably one of the tougher holds of any R district in the state.  Freshman Bill Johnson’s seat is mostly unchanged, but does gain a few R-leaning areas in the southern tier, like Jackson and Vinton counties.  It also loses a few democratic areas in Mahoning County.  The PVI probably moves by a point or two toward the republicans.

District 7 – Gray – Steve Austria-R – If there’s anybody that’s most unhappy with this plan, it’s most likely Steve Austria.  You see, I’m very concerned about Columbus, and as such, I felt it necessary to split the city more effectively 3 ways, which takes Austria’s district further into Franklin County.  In return I took Clark County, which is rather swingish, out of the district.  Still, district 7 is likely R+4 or R+5 now, and could be in play in a strong democratic year.  Austria should be okay if he campaigns well.

District 8 – Lavender – John Boehner-R – This district extends northward a bit to compensate for losing parts of Montgomery County, but it’s still extremely republican.  No trouble at all for the speaker.  

District 9 – Light Blue – Marcy Kaptur-D – This district turned out surprisingly well, and basically hugs the Lake Erie coastline stretching from Toledo’s west side over to some of Cleveland’s western suburbs like Lorain and Avon Lake.  It’s still an extremely democratic district, and an easy hold for Kaptur or any democrat.  

District 10 – Maroon – Betty Sutton-D vs Dennis Kucinich-D – Here we have a district that takes in most of Cleveland’s western suburbs, parts of northern Medina county, and the western half of greater Akron.  It’s actually quite similar to Sutton’s current district except that it takes in more of Cuyahoga and loses Lorain county to Kaptur/Latta.  Dennis Kucinich was actually drawn into Fudge’s district but he would undoubtedly run here instead as most of his base is within this version of OH-10.  I think Sutton would be favored to win a head to head primary as Kucinich has far too many enemies.

District 11 – Light Green – Marcia Fudge-D – Here’s Fudge’s district, fully within Cuyahoga County, and a 50% black VRA district at that, hugely democratic.  There’s still a possibility that the republicans will draw this district down toward Akron, but in the interest of compactness I didn’t feel it necessary.  It’s not like doing so would change the overall PVIs in the northeast very much.  

District 12 – Royal Blue – Patrick Tiberi-R – Tiberi’s district is strengthened here as it loses some areas in Franklin County and gains some republican-leaning areas around Zanesville and the Licking Valley.  This seat goes up to about an R+3 or so if I had to guess, which probably averts the seat going blue for awhile outside of a really strong democratic wave.

District 13 – Pink – Tim Ryan-D – This district is virtually unchanged, and still runs from Youngstown over to eastern Akron.  It’s still very solidly democratic for Ryan, or any democrat for that matter.

District 14 – Brown – Steven LaTourette-R – Sidebar, I have a special place for Steven LaTourette because when he was my congressman in 2001 he took my 8th grade class on the House floor.  That was a really cool experience.  Anyway, this district is another republican challenge because it’s squeezed on one side by Cleveland, on another by Akron, and on another by Youngstown.  The best I could do for LaTourette is move the seat into some republican-leaning suburbs in Cuyahoga like Lyndhurst, Brecksville, and Broadview Heights, and in Summit like Sagamore Hills and Peninsula.  I couldn’t avoid throwing in greater portions of Trumbull and Portage counties though, which hurts.  The PVI is most likely unchanged, so LaTourette should be fine, but this would be a real fight in an open seat.  

District 15 – Orange – Steve Stivers-R – This district is definitely the most worrisome for the Republicans as it has a democratic PVI, and I wasn’t able to do very much to change that here.  The district still contains just two rural counties plus a roughly 50% slice of Franklin County.  The good news is that Stivers has outperformed his district in his first two elections here, so he might be able to survive even if 2012 isn’t a great year for the republicans.  Between the three central Ohio republicans, Stivers, Tiberi, and Austria, Stivers gets the short straw as the freshman.  

District 16 – Sea Green – Jim Renacci-R vs Bob Gibbs-R – This last district has changed a bit as well, shifting southward mostly.  Holmes County, the most republican county in Ohio, is added, along with some swingy territory further south in Coshocton and Tuscarawas.  Overall I don’t think the PVI changes much, maybe a point further to the right for R+5.  Both Renacci and Gibbs have their bases of support within the district, so a primary between the two freshmen would be a cool fight to see.  

In Conclusion – A 12-4 map would be fairly hard to maintain for the republicans, but it’s one that could hold up in a neutral year if all their members fought hard and campaigned well.  I would say that based on this configuration, Stivers is the most vulnerable, followed by Chabot, then Johnson third.  On the flip side, the best the democrats could hope to do under a map like this is 10-6, by taking out Stivers, Chabot, Johnson, Tiberi, Schmidt (because of her unique weakness), and the Renacci/Gibbs primary winner.  I suppose if LaTourette were to retire then his could be in play as well.  With the exception of Stivers though, all of the republicans districts have an R-leaning PVI, which is what the other side should be shooting for.