April 5 Election Night Predictions Thread

There are several elections around the country tonight. The main event, of course, is the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, pitting incumbent David Prosser against JoAnne Kloppenburg. Also in the Badger State, Democrat Chris Abele faces off against Republican Jeff Stone for Milwaukee County Executive. Polls close at 9pm Eastern / 8pm Central. AP results will be here.

Elsewhere, there’s the first round of the Las Vegas mayoral election tonight, and there are a bunch of city council runoffs in Chicago (the first real test of Rahm Emanuel’s power). And there’s also a special election for South Carolina’s vacant 64th state House district.

So, toss in your predictions in comments. Also, if you know of any good local websites reporting results for these races, please share those as well.

UPDATE: I also added a poll on the Supreme Court race.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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107 thoughts on “April 5 Election Night Predictions Thread”

  4. that Prosser/Kloppenburg will be a reverse replay of Critz’s first special election.

    And you should all feel better that I’ve gotten my negativity out of the way!

    There’s a reason I don’t like to do predictions. . .

  5. HD-64 in South Carolina should easily stay in Democratic hands.

    WI Supreme Court

    Kloppenburg 51%

    Prosser 48%

    Milwaukee Exec.

    Abele 54%

    Stone 46%

  6. Kloppenburg +5.  This feels like it could be anything from -10 to +20, so I’ll take the average.  How quickly we forget that Prosser earned 55% of the primary vote.  I’d still rather be in Kloppenburg’s shoes, though.

    Chaltiel sneaks into the second round in Las Vegas.

  8. A source in the city clerk’s office in Madison is saying the turnout is November high. On pace to break the Nov. 08 record.

    1. Turnout in Madison is smashing records for spring elections, while Waukesha turnout is normal. I don’t know that Klop will win, but Prosser will do significantly worse than he did in the primary, when he got 55% and statewide turnout was 9%

  12. And while I admit I have a bit of a head start here (as I’ve been privy to some private polling data in Vegas Mayor & Henderson council races), here’s what I suspect:

    Las Vegas Mayor-

    Carolyn Goodman (I) 35%

    Chris Giunchigliani (D) 25%

    Larry Brown (D) 23%

    … And the rest are left in the casino smoke.

    Las Vegas Ward 1-

    Who cares about the margin! Lois Tarkanian (D) will romp.

    Las Vegas Ward 3-

    Bob Coffin 40%

    Adriana Martinez 30%

    Steve Evans 15%

    Las Vegas Ward 5-

    Who cares about the margin! Rikki Barlow (D) will coast.

    Henderson Ward 1-

    Gerri Schroder (D) 58%

    Tom Wagner (R) 30%

    Ed Hamilton (Crazy) 7%

    Henderson Ward 2-

    Debra March (D) 50.3%

    John Simmons (R) 44.6%

    Kevinn Donovan (Jerk) 5.1%

    (This will probably be the biggest nail-biter of the night, but I’m cautiously optimistic Debra will narrowly win outright… At least I hope!)

    Henderson Ward 4-

    Mike Mayberry (R) 35%

    Sam Bateman (D) 23%

    John Brislin (R) 12%

    Joesph Simmons (I/D?) 5%

  14. Kloppenburg wins 52-48, Abele wins 59-41.

    And I hope to God Chris G makes it to the runoff in Las Vegas, because the rest of those clowns don’t deserve to be the Clark County Dogcatcher.

  15.  Kloppenberg 51.9%

    Prosser 48.1%

    Remember that at first, this race was supposed to be a wipeout for Prosser but I think that the turnout will tilt this slightly in Kloppenberg’s favor. Also, the low turnout in Milwaukee will not help much but I did hear that turnout in Eau Clarie is pretty high and Eau Clarie usually votes Democratic.  

  16. 50-50 tie, with Prosser getting slightly more votes. However, I have a strange feeling that Prosser will get higher than that. I heard during the 10 election that the Democratic turnout was higher than anticipated, and Feingold would get re-elected (which is what I heard on Dailykos), so I’m not sure…. We’ll know in a couple hours tho!  

  17. And Say

    Prosser-54%

    JoAnne 46%

    I seriously think people are underestimating Prosser’s campaign, which did outspend JoAnne.

    In Milwaukee, let’s say

    Abele 55%

    Stone-45%

  21. It seems to take work to oust incumbent judges, especially conservatives, unless they have a bad track record. I’m not sure if people will care enough about Prosser or tie this to what’s going on with Walker. He also has a money advantage.

    2. I’d look for the counties from Fond du Lac up to Brown as key… as the key is whether there is buyer’s remorse from these small city/industrial/farm counties.  

  23. I’m going to cheat and take the average of every Klop prediction until now, and just make my Prosser prediction that minus 100. Because I believe in the SSP community’s collective prediction ability.

    Klop 51.6

    Prosser 48.4

    Too lazy to do that for Milwaukee County Exec, though.

    ironically, I voted that Prosser would win in the poll. Either I get to be right, or the candidate I’m rooting for wins…it’s win-win!

  24. There’s too much uncertainty here, and a huge victory for either side wouldn’t surprise me. So instead of predicting what I actually think will happen, I’m going to predict some crazy landslide result because in the off-chance that it happens I will look like a genius. Sometimes it’s better to bet on a longshot when you believe the chances of that longshot are undervalued. I think a Kloppenburg landslide is slightly more likely than a Prosser landslide, so  I’m going to predict:

    61 Kloppenburg

    39 Prosser

    Basically the electorate aligns along Prosser=Walker lines (meaning it should be about 55-45), and then there is a large turnout gap favoring us, shifting the race another six points in our favor.

  25. Im gonna say it ends up like bush/kerry so 50/50 with a slight edge to Kloppenburg.

    Turnout looks pretty high in my township, it is a republican leaning rural township but its possible that there is a fair amount of union workers in it.

  27. Turnout in Dane County expected to be +70% and officials have ordered 7,000 more ballots than in 2008!

    JoAnne Kloppenburg – 59.5%

    David Prosser – 40.5%

    Screw the Milwaukee Executive race, I think Gov. Walker and the GOP are headed for a hugely embarrassing loss tonight.

    The takeaway from 2008, 2010 and 2011 is base turnout, base turnout and base turnout!!!

  31. Union turnout will undoubtedly be very strong, but I wholly expect the usual GOP rank-and-file to be out there, too. I don’t think young voters will show up, so that might dampen the D margins a bit. It’d be stunning if Stone won, but Prosser has a chance.

  32. a president and until recently federal government many thought of as overreaching galvanizing the right and overreaching governors galvanizing the left.  there are actually people caring about a supreme court and county executive race.

  34. The turnout is looking really good so far so I’ll be really optimistic with my guesses.

    Kloppenburg – 60%

    Prosser – 40%

    Abele – 62%

    Stone – 38%

    Both Republicans see big drops from the low turnout primary. Prosser’s is worse because of all the media attention.

  35. I’ve found the best person to follow for turnout updates so far has been @News3David. He’s a reporter for Channel 3 news in Madison and seems to be talking to more county clerks for turnout info than any other reporter covering this.

  36. http://www.wkow.com/Global/sto…

    The Madison City Clerk’s Office says they ordered as many ballots for Madison polling places as they did in the last November election, but they had to order more this afternoon.

    A huge turnout when people get off work could mean not enough ballots in some places.

    “Even though we ordered for 55 percent of these places if they actually get a higher count than that, then they may actually end up hand counting some of the ballots,” Peters said.

    She says everyone will still get to vote. It just means more work for election officials and the Clerk’s Office.

    “It’s always a long night for us, and this will just make it a little longer,” she said.

  38. are here. It’s two counties, one of which only has like, one precinct in the district (which has reported 52-48 for the Republican). The other county hasn’t reported yet.

  40. If we can’t win this after what’s happened in Wisconsin, then there is no progressive movement in this country.

    If we lose, it will be why Blue Dogs are Blue Dogs.

    There’s no excuse for losing this. There’s no “depressed base” this time. This would be being outnumbered.

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