April 5 Election Results Thread #7

1:29pm: James Hell here. DavidNYC sends an update from another dimension: State Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, who represents the Lake Mills area, said Prosser picked up only 2 votes in Lake Mills, pending the count of 24 handwritten ballots.

12:37pm: Great news – those “missing” two precincts in West Allis (suburban Milwaukee County) were either empty or already counted. So MKE is done and Kloppenburg’s vote lead remains unchanged at 224. Now we just wait for Lake Mills (JeffCo) to count. And then, of course, on to the absentees.

11:41am: The final precincts in Juneau and Taylor came in, reducing Kloppenburg’s lead to 240 votes. So now we wait on West Allis and Lake Mills.

11:25am: The town of Lake Mills in Jefferson Co. is apparently having issues with its vote count.

11:14am: AP just made some adjustments to previous counties, so now KloJo’s lead is at 311.

11:04am: We’re using this link for Jefferson & this link (PDF) for Taylor.

10:59am: The AP has finally caught up with us and is also showing the same lead. There are five precincts left: 1 each in Jefferson, Juneau, and Taylor, and 2 in Milwaukee. We believe the Jeff and Taylor precincts are less Prosser-leaning than their counties, while the Milwaukee precincts (suburban West Allis) are much more favorable to Prosser than MKE as a whole. As for Juneau, that’s in the good lord’s hands.

10:40am (David): We show JoAnne Kloppenburg with a 369 vote lead right now, with Sauk and Ashland complete.

8:57am: The JS is reporting that the last two Milwaukee County precincts are in West Allis, which gave Prosser 63% in the first round.  If indeed the case, those Sauk/Ashland precincts will have some heavy lifting to do.

8:45am (Jeff): Those Milwaukee County precincts were not particularly helpful for KloJo, who is now 606 votes back per our count. This leaves 19 precincts outstanding, if you take the fact that Crawford and Dane are in fact fully reporting.


And we’re back!

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

226 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #7”

  1. Hey, anybody up yet?

    AP has 3623 of 3630 precincts reporting, and Klop just took a 140 vote lead!

    Outstanding 7 precincts are from a mixture of counties that look fairly balanced, maybe slight tilt for Klop.

  3. and about 3 of the other 7 Dwarfs LOL.

    I feel like this is soccer and the good money to be made is betting on a tie rather than one side or the other winning.  

      2. Apparently, one of Kloppenburg’s volunteers/canvassers went to Lake mills and came back with that report (there are definitely 24 ballots pending per Lake Mills news.)

  5. They filled in the empty precincts in Dane and Crawford.  They still don’t have the +229 from the last two precincts in Dunn, though.

  6. City site has what seems to be full results from 9:20 this morning. Milwaukee J-S has more total votes from West Allis than actual city does in local race. I’m hoping that it’s all in already, and maybe the J-S made a mistake and overcounted the votes.

  7. Still don’t reflect Dunn County’s final precincts coming in…

    Jefferson, Juneau, and Taylor with 1 precinct outstanding

    Milwaukee with two precincts outstanding, but those might tilt slightly for Prosser…

  8. Jefferson – 1 (currently 58-42 Prosser)

    Juneau – 1 (currently 52-48 Kloppenberg)

    Milwaukee – 2 (from a town that went for Prosser in the primary)

    Taylor – 1 (currently 61-39 Prosser)

  9. Dunn (pro-Klopp)

    Jefferson (pro-Prosser)

    Juneau (pro-Klopp)

    Milwaukee (we think pro-Prosser areas outstanding)

    Taylor (pro-Prosser)

    So, it looks like Klopp will likely lose her lead again today.

  10. http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in…

    If the difference is < 0.5%, (about 7400 votes when the initial count is done) “the petitioner is not required to pay a fee”

    And for a candidate who is not satisfied with the recount:

    Within five business days after completion of the recount, any candidate aggrieved by the recount may appeal to circuit court. The appellant must file the notice with the clerk of the circuit court together with an undertaking and surety in the amount approved by the court.

      1. but the fact that we kept it close, and won the Milwaukee CoExec race, is very good. And for the cherry on top, we will probably go into the recount ahead by something like 200 votes, which isn’t that easy to reverse even in a statewide recount. Right now, I would imagine Klop’s chances of winning in the end are somewhere north of 50%.

        1. Dane is liberal because of the university community and all the state workers (it’s the home of the state capital).

          Waukesha is basically the white flight exurbs from Milwaukee of Milwaukee.

  11. Where do those 8,000 absentee ballots in Milwaukee factor in on any of this? And  take there are other absentees throughout the state as well?

  12.  Also voted 55%  for Walker in 2010 while Milwaukee County voted 38% for him. Since P is winning 43% in Milwaukee County now, we should be looking at 59%-60% out of West Allis if it still has not reported.

    By the way, have those absentees been counted yet?  

  15. Prosser should net around 125 votes from the remaining three rural precincts.  

    It all comes down to what those last two Milwaukee County Precincts are it seems.  Oh, and of course if there are any absentee, provisional, or other ballots.  

  16. Still 5 precincts to go, but AP bumped the lead up to 447. Don’t feel like looking through all of the counties to find the change.

  17. If they’re touchscreen machines, then a recount won’t change the outcome, but if they still use optical scanners or something like that, there’s a bigger margin for error.

      1. something like a serious misdemeanour or something.  But yes, this is scandalous.  Fortunately, he had allies running ads to dilute the narrative against him.

      1. Yes, I would bet a lot of money you are correct. I do not recall ever awaiting absentee totals for WI election results.

        I mentioned earlier that I am a poll worker in WI (although not this election) and the absentees are delivered to the particular polling precincts from city hall (after it closes at 4:30pm) and they are counted with the ballots cast that day in person.

        If there are others I would be surprised.

  18. I’m hearing that Maplehurst is left in Taylor County, and Lake Mills in Jefferson

    Jefferson – Assuming uniform shift in votes (which I neglected earlier) and turnout in the county, from precinct data, Klopp will win this ~53-47 (call it 50 votes.)

    Maplehurst – 21 votes cast in Feb primary, 12-9 Dems-Pross.

    It all comes down to Milwaukee now.

  19. Maplehurst, had all of 21 votes in the primary, of which Prosser got 9.

    In Jefferson, the last precinct, Lake Mills, had 173 votes in the primary, and Prosser got 97 of them.

  20. FWIW in the 1st district to file recall petitions Klop won the 3 whole counties (LaCrosse, Vernon, Crawford) that make up 95% of the District by a 58-42 margin.

      1. There were rumors that Prosser’s internals showed the race roughly tied towards the end, but I don’t think there was ever proof that Kloppenburg was ahead, besides people’s guts.

      3. that Prosser would win by 10 points actually, more or less matching his performance in the open primary.  It’s fairly unusual for an incumbent judge to be recalled, short of scandal…ignoring that case 2 years ago where an appointed judge who had never faced the voters before was bounced, it has been 43 years since the last incumbent judge has been defeated in Wisconsin.

        For a judge to go down because of the overall political atmosphere is even stranger, and really speaks to the way things are going in Wisconsin.

      4. …maybe the Journal Sentinel endorsement (would explain the weird Milwakee disconnect between Abele and Klop).  

        I think it was that Sarah Palin endorsement and the teabagger robocalls.  They woke up the base, and the GOP base knows how to vote, unlike our base.

  23. Jeff Co says Lake Mills precinct is the one that won’t report til today, so assuming that is the precinct we’re waiting for, it went 551-431 for Walker over Barrett last year, a -120 differential

  25. Klopp should gain 100-200 votes from what’s left in Jefferson and Taylor (Maplehurst, Lake Mills)

    Juneau – Who knows?

    Milwaukee – ??? The million-dollar question.

  26. OK, anyone reading this is also probably a fanatic numbers and politics nerd, so who has been looking at these results and comments please:

    Circle of ignorance around Milwaukee:

    Washington Co (West Bend, right?): 76% for Prosser, about 46% turnout

    Waukesha Co: 73% Prosser, about 43% turnout

    Ozaukee Co: 72% Prosser, about 45% turnout

    Walworth Co: 61% Prosser and 36% turnout

    Pretty high turnout for counties w/o big local races, huh? Or  am I missing something?

    Also, I’m from Appleton (Outagamie Co), home of Prosser and Joe McCarthy.

    Out Co elected Dem (officially nonpartisan) Tom Nelson, last term’s state assembly dem majority leader over rep former state treasurer Jack Voight by about 2000, but Prosser took county by 6000 votes, 57-43; VERY disappointing. Brown co also went big (55-45) for DP, retaining local advantage.

  27. Per the J-S listings. Also 100% for the West Allis school board election.

    Perhaps there are no West Allis precincts left to report?

  28. A local person from western Wisconsin (don’t know who he is but he’s connected to someone who knows his politics) said minutes ago that the Taylor County precinct went to Prosser by 23 votes.  So, Prosser closes his deficit by 23?

    1. …other commenters who live or have lived in Wisconsin have said in these election result threads.

      It’s obviously not “necessary” since no place I’ve lived, 3 states plus D.C., has done such a thing.

      But every state is different, and I guess Wisconsin sees no reason to change what it does.

  29. Although I joked about it before, if we lose this one super closely the most glaring (and determinative) small area of  specific under performance really would have been in Menominee County. Someone should have sent an organizer to the rez.

  30. Prosser appears to have picked up two votes, no new precincts, no change to Klopp’s numbers, so the lead is at 309.

    1. … I believe absentees have to be in by election day and are counted election night.

  31. But I wonder if Lake Mills is a case of “we never get this kind of attention so lets milk it for all its worth.”

  34. Also, I calculate Outagamie turnout at about 41% – good, but still less than those right wing enclaves around MKE – and we had a major county exec race and interesting local races.

    For city council (district 1)alderperson, a former repub and publicly acknowledged tea party assembly candidate ran unopposed and was DEFEATED by a vigorous write in campaign from the left. So, what gives?

    Prosser still gets county 57-43 —arggh!

      2. this race is clearly going long but the key point is our side being able to write the narrative that after election night, we were in the lead(even with these ‘adjustments’ i would be shocked if the changes amount to over 500 votes which is the way the tally works; every time you take one away from us you give to the other side and vice versa)

    1. it is always good to go into the recount on top(and this would appear to be the case)in a recanvass you want the other side to prove your lead is not justified(not the other way around; it is all about the narrative of being ‘ahead on election night’)

    2. I am a poll worker in Appleton for major elections – every two years, more or less. Not this election.

      My understanding – this is firsthand – absentee ballots are delivered to precincts (from the city clerk’s office) on election day, usually in the afternoon or evening. They are then counted in the election night totals.

      If there are any other absentee ballots to be counted, I am not aware of them. I also don’t ever recall awaiting WI election results due to absentee ballots, as is famously the case for some other states. If someone knows otherwise, please speak up.

      I’m a little fuzzy on provisional ballots, but I know they are extremely rare. I vaguely recall that we are trained on how to do them, but I don’t recall ever doing one. I seem to recall one person (over many years)having to do one. So, at best they are extremely rare.

  40. Last I heard, Jefferson Co would net Prosser 100 votes. This would leave Kloppenburg 140 vote lead with those 2 remaining precincts in Milwaukee Co.

    1. is OK when it goes in that direction.

      (I’m still mad at them for making me think there were a zillion votes in Waukesha outstanding last night.)

    1. Probably just to mess with us, Lake Mills will bring it to a tie.

      I know I shouldn’t joke like that, but the way this thing see-sawed back and forth, it would be the ultimate twist.

  43. When counting paper or optical scan ballots, questions often arise concerning the intent of the elector. Poll workers have a duty to attempt to determine voter intent and give effect to that intent if it can be determined. Poll workers are expected to use common sense to determine the will of an elector based on the marks made by the elector on the ballot. The decisions of the poll workers may be reviewed by the board of canvassers conducting the recount.  Wis. Stat. §§ 7.50, 7.51, 9.01(1)(b)11.

    Even if an elector has not fully complied with the provisions of the election law, votes should be counted as intended by the elector to the extent that the elector’s intent can be determined.

    The Government Accountability Board has a manual, “Counting Votes,” which is designed to assist the board of canvassers in determining voter intent.  A copy of the “Counting Votes” manual is

    included in the Appendix.  See Wis. Stat. § 5.01(1).

    http://gab.wi.gov/sites/defaul…

  46. Assuming the one outstanding Jefferson district votes like the rest of the county, Prosser will pick up 87 votes there.

    As for Milwaukee, assuming the two precincts have the average population for a precinct in the county (470 people), and he gets roughly 60% of the vote in both, he’ll net around 188 votes.  

    This brings him to +275, which erases Kloppenburg’s lead.  

    Of course, this is only assuming everything goes right for him.  If one of the remaining Milwaukee precincts is empty, or he substantially under-performs in any of the outstanding three districts, it could easily go back to Kloppenburg.  

  47. Just got up a bit ago and didn’t see anything about that, but I remember it was a big deal last night, what with ~8k absentees outstanding.

    Thank goodness I didn’t have class this morning…

  48. exactly how many absentee ballots are still to be counted? Or is it once the last precincts come in it’s over, except for a recount?  

    1. that’s a pretty solid margin, actually, that isn’t too likely to be reversed, unless they magically discover votes in Prosser strongholds (which I guess isn’t out of the question, recalling MN 2008 and NY 2010). Still, triple digits is enough to make me feel relatively calm.

  50. There are between 700 and 760 ballots left to count in Lake Mills, Jefferson County.

    Prosser won 59.5% in the primary in Lake Mills. That means netting between 100 and 137 votes for Prosser.

    BUT — and this is crucial — JeffCo went 67% for Prosser in the primary and only 58% for him in the general. So if you make the same adjustment for Lake Mills — that Prosser will lose about 13.4% of his own vote share — you’re looking at 51.5% total vote share in this general in Lake Mills.

    So, at that number… a net of 21 to 24 votes for Prosser. Not so bad. Then, it’s off to West Allis, with about 215 votes to spare.

  51. what in the f-ck is an ’empty precinct’? and is this unique to WI elections?(i have been involved in DEMOCRATIC party politics for forty years and this is the first i have heard of these ’empty precincts’)

    2. This isn’t an exception. This is just another one in a long line of scandals. The bitch stuff is definitely scandalous.  

    1. She represents Waunakee and the north side of Madison.  I am not sure how the JS posted that.  The representative for Lake Mills is Andy Jorgensen.  

  56. I don’t think we will have a pro Prosser Judge.

    http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/…

    In one twist, state law calls for Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson to appoint the state judge who would hear the case if the loser of a recount in a statewide election goes to court over the outcome.  Abrahamson and David Prosser, the incumbent in the Supreme Court contest, have clashed on the court. Prosser’s private remark calling Abahamson a “total bitch” was the subject of a recent political ad attacking Prosser.

  57. Precincts 34-35 of West Allis have no results yet on county website. These are the empty West Milwaukee precincts

    In 2010, there were 0 votes in 34, and ~200 in 35 (+40 Walker). It looks like we’ve won.

    1. on Twitter last night said Prosser was down high single digits 7-10 days ago.  I know judges are usually not voted out but there is usually not much of a reason to do so.  No one usually pays attention to these elections.  I just thought all of the energy was on the left and that Prosser would lose due to turnout.

  60. No change, they just had their stuff wrong

    1 precinct to go, not enough to change it. Klop wins pending recount, absentees. 🙂

  62. In WI they get sent to the polling place and counted along with the Election Day votes. There should be no absentees left to count.

    2. …the last week or two, Prosser’s allies finally joined the air wars in earnest, including putting up a good retaliatory ad against the sex offender priest attack ad.

      TV ads work, and Prosser’s allies finally getting some on the air let him compete.

    3. is one where the energy is on both sides more or less equally.  I wouldn’t be surprised next year if over 150 million people turn out to vote (2008 saw 132.6 million).

  64. All down to that last precinct in West Mills, Jefferson County.  People seem to be predicting that it’s going to be a wash, since the town is bluer than the county.  Looks like Kloppenburg wins the initial count (of course, most of the media is still running with the “Prosser narrowly ahead” line from last night).

    3. just like Dane and Milwaukee counties, so that must have driven turnout there.

      (Also, the Circle of Ignorance needs to be the official SSP abbreviation for Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties)

  67. On facebook, people are saying Lake Mills results are : 362 Kloppenburg, 364 Prosser with 24 ballots left to be hand counted. Looks like we won this round!  

  69. It seems (based on looking at a couple of elections) that the Town of Lake Mills tends to vote with the City of Lake Mills.  And Kloppenburg won the City of Lake Mills, if I remember correctly.

  70. I am starting to not trust my eyes. From AP’s site:

    3629/3630 Prosser – 739,354 50%

                   Klopp     739,589 50%

    +235, right? With just Lake Mills, which looks like absolute worst case is -120, and maybe much better.

  71. May be even very good – most of the people probably expected Prosser to win relatively easily when this campaign began. Walker, IMHO, “overdid” his hand.I will not say that i am very much a “public unions man”, but i clearly don’t like his heavy-handed tactics..

    But i think a long recount and possible court hearings looms ahead..

    1. you do know my response was to another poster and not you(what you posted is dead on; these folks are masters at base turnout where our side is still fundamentally lacking in certain areas)

  72. I have now seen dozens of posts on twitter and facebook indicating that Lake Mills split 362 for Kloppenburg and 364 for Prosser. You can wait for official results, but I’m going out on a limb to trust these report. There may be 24 or 56 ballots pending. But unless there was a tabulation error somewhere else, it looks like Kloppenburg will be ahead going into the recount

  73. In Santa Clara County, CA we have precincts with only a few families or sometimes no one at all.  I have no idea how precincts get drawn- there are huge, small, full, and empty precincts with no rhyme or reason at all.  

  74. a poster on kos keeps saying that some absentees with proper postmark are still outstanding; is this the case? also, are all military votes accounted for? this recount is going to be epoch(especially if the KOCHROACHES lose)

  80. From the Appleton Post Crescent (Prosser’s hometown newspaper which, btw, endorsed Klopp):

    2011 – 1,452,182 (at time of publication)

    2009 – 793,864

    2008 – 830,450

    2007 – 831,657

    2006 – 502,688

    2005 – 552,790

    2003 – 800,785

    2001 – 552,429  (Prosser, unopposed)

    2000 – 817,748

  81. Like sane people, WI counts them along with the rest of the vote, unlike other states which wait weeks to do so (for no real logical reason–absentees should be counted first!)

  82. Shout-out to Nhoj who predicted 50/50, edge Klop. I don’t think anyone else got that close.

    I think if you aggregate in the Milwaukee CoExec race, then Johnny Longtorso wins on average (52-48 Klop, 59-41 Abele).

  84. that Prosser would lose by 10 points or so.  This was much closer than I thought it was.  Prosser closed at the end for some reason.  Not sure why.

  86. how Dane and Waukesha Counties can be such polar opposites and be so geographically close. Even the suburban/rural areas of Dane went for Kloppenburg, yet Prosse got a massive margin just maybe 50 miles away in Waukesha.

    I think Nate Silver said in 2008 that Wisconsin and Oregon were the two most polarized states in the country in terms of political identification. Lots of liberals and lots of conservative… and less inbetween.

  88. They updated during their broadcast that the count was:

    P:376

    K:374

    It might have been 378/376 or 374/372 but the point is, the additional paper ballots kept the margin at +2 for P. Aka Lake Mills gave us a much needed wash.

  90. Her district is entirely within Dane County.

    However, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald does represent the town. The Assembly rep is a Dem named Andy Jorgensen.

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