Here’s an interesting nugget from Virginia: a poll testing the strength of Democratic challenger Chap Peterson, who is going up against Republican incumbent Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, the wife of Rep. Tom Davis, in Virginia’s 34th state Senate district this November. First, a few caveats about the poll: 1) Not Larry Sabato, the source of the poll, has a good track record of getting inside dope in Virginia, but we don’t know anything about the poll other than its results–crosstabs, margin of error, or even the name of the pollster. 2) State legislative districts are notoriously difficult to poll. It’s difficult to get a good sample in a small voter pool (it’s hard enough with a congressional district) like a state senate district in Virginia (which contain under 200K people).
That said, take it or leave it (Pollster Unknown, 9/23-24; July results in parens; n=406):
Chap Peterson (D): 46 (38)
Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (R-inc.): 36 (39)
Undecided: 17 (22)
The battle between Peterson and Devolites-Davis is seen by many as a proxy war of sorts between Tom Davis and former Gov. Mark Warner, who are both vying for the seat of retiring US Senator John Warner. The poll also tests their strength in the state Senate district, which NLS describes as “the heart of the 11th district”, Tom Davis’ political base:
Mark Warner (D): 53
Tom Davis (R): 35
If this poll is at all accurate (and that’s anyone’s guess, given the questionable track record of state legislative race polls), Tom and Jeannemarie have their work cut out for them in Northern Virginia.
I wouldn’t be too quick to believe Ben Tribbet. While the poll looks legit, and I generally believe it to be close, if not accurate, Tribbet can be likened to Matt Drudge. Some of what he posts has merit and can be considered “inside dope”, and other things he posts is just pure trash, either in terms of content or veracity, or both.
Well, I somehow got on his mailing list this cycle, and I like what I’ve read about him, so far. He certainly seems to have a realistic understanding of what it will take to defeat an incumbent with deep pockets. This is from a message in late August:
His web site documents the fact that he occasionally wears a deplorable bow tie:
http://www.fairfaxse…
but we can overlook that.
He’s on the Raising Kaine ActBlue slate, if anyone likes the idea of helping to retire Mrs. Davis:
http://www.actblue.c…
The Virginia State Assembly races are this November, a full year ahead of the national election cycle. They are a near-term goal that we can work on and consolidate some gains, before the 2008 cycle is in full frenzied pace.
This site is called Swing State Project. Few might have agreed, two years ago, to consider Virginia a Swing State, it was so red. But last cycle Virginia elected one Democratic US Senator and this cycle it looks like they may elect another. The state assembly races are the training ground for developing a Virginia bench for the future. If we want to see some of the seats in the US House switch to blue, in the future, we need to encourage the state party and back some of the promising young Democrats who take on these challenges.
If some of you think Peterson is too much of a long shot, how about supporting freshman Democratic Assemblyman David Englin, who seems to be the most progressive member of the Assembly? We also need to protect the gains we’ve already made. David Englin’s web site is here:
http://www.davidengl…
and he’s one the ActBlue slate below:
http://www.actblue.c…
In any case, these state legislative races are important. If you can summon any enthusiasm for any of the candidates running for the state legislatures that are up this year, the money or energy you can devote to them will pay dividends early.
Tom DeLay is convicted, Jack Abramoff is convicted, John Doolittle in California has finally been subpoened, all for “pay to pay” politics when Davis was in charge of the cash flow at the Republican National Congressional Committee. The offices of DeLay, Abramoff, and lobbyist Dan Mattoon were all clustered with his so they could work together chummily, going to dinner with lobbyists at Abramoff’s restaurant Signatures, and threatening lobbyists to pay up and bring their clients money, too. Is Davis finally headed to jail next, for diverting the pay-to-play money to his wife in the VA state senate? See http://www.dailykos….
I also see his wife is in the Connection newspapers saying that she understands the Middle East because she got to go there for a few days with her husband. Putting aside the issue of her riding on her husbands coattails (literally this time), Maryland just ruled that accepting these free trips is a conflict of interest for the legislators themselves, much less their spouses. Yet ANOTHER ethical breach for the Davis family?