Senate:
• AZ-Sen: So what the heck happened with Trent Franks? The Arizona Guardian is reporting that the Republican Congressman had been promising people jobs on his pending Senate campaign, and that his people had even gone so far as to ensure proper media risers were available at the hotel where Franks was supposed to make his big announcement. Yet it all vanished in a heartbeat when Franks unexpectedly pulled the plug. Says the Guardian: “The good thing is, there’s still another year-and-a-half to get the full story before the 2012 elections.” Also, in case you haven’t seen it yet, Dave Catanese penned a piece explaining the backstory on how he got burned by Franks’ consultant. It just adds to all the weirdness.
• FL-Sen: Tucked inside that Quinnipiac poll which showed tough numbers for Obama was this nugget:
Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who like Obama is on the 2012 ballot, is in better shape, with a 47-26 percent approval rating, a 43-39 percent lead over an unidentified Republican and voters saying 43-35 percent that he deserves another term in the Senate.
• MI-Sen (PDF): A week or so ago, Republican-affiliated pollster Market Research Group offered some better-than-everyone-else approval ratings for Gov. Rick Snyder. Apparently, they also polled the Senate race at the same time, pitting Dem Debbie Stabenow against Some Dude Randy Hekman. Amusingly, the polling memo says the Senator has a “slim” 11-point lead over Hekman, 45-34. But the real problem is the sample, which is 26 R, 26 D, 43 I – in other words, nothing like reality.
MRG also polled a hypothetical state Supreme Court matchup between incumbent Supreme Court Justice Brian Zahra and former Gov. Jennifer Granholm, which had Zahra up 38-33. (Moving from the statehouse to the high court is not unheard of in Michigan.) Speaking of Granholm, she was supposedly under consideration to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Board but says she withdrew her name (and likes Elizabeth Warren for the job). It sounds like Granholm is keeping pretty busy, and the article notes she’s teaching at UC Berkeley, so perhaps she’s enjoying the weather out in Cali a bit more than back home. But Granholm is a former state AG and was even supposedly a possible Supreme Court pick, so perhaps a judicial run is plausible.
• PA-Sen: Sam Rohrer, the teabaggy ex-state Rep. who got pounded by Tom Corbett in the PA-Gov GOP primary last year, says he’s “50-50” on running against Bob Casey this cycle. Rohrer has the perfect pedigree: He runs the Pennsylvania chapter of the malevolent David Koch front group Americans for Prosperity.
• VA-Sen: Passed along without comment:
NBC 4’s reporter-anchor Craig Melvin is a tall African-American. Which apparently led to this exchange with former Sen. George Allen, according to Melvin’s Twitter account Tuesday night:
“For the 2nd time in 5 months, fmr. gov. and sen candidate George Allen asks me,”what position did you play?” I did not a play a sport.”
Actually, I changed my mind. If you still don’t think George Allen is a racist fuck, read this coda from ThinkProgress writer Lee Feng. And no, Allen didn’t apologize – he offered a classic bullshit “I’m sorry if I offended you” response. That’s bullshit.
Anyhow, Roanoke College released a poll of the race, showing Allen leading Tim Kaine by 45-32 – a rather different picture than what we saw from PPP. However, the WaPo ran an above-the-item update warning readers to be “cautious” about this survey because “[r]esults were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia’s racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities.” It also looks like the horserace question was asked after about a bajillion issue-related questions (PDF), some of them kind of weird.
Finally, in Some Dude news… some other Some Dude (an African-American minister named Earl Jackson) decided to get into the GOP primary, a race with a lot of Some Dudes already in it.
Gubernatorial:
• GA-Gov: PPP did a re-do poll in Georgia, too, and found Dem ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would edge actual Gov. Nathan Deal by a single point today, 46-45. Tom says that this isn’t a case of voter disgust with Deal (he has pretty meh ratings, not downright radioactive ones like Scott Walker), but rather a clear sign of last year’s enthusiasm gap that will forever haunt us. There’s also a smorgasbord of other Peach State odds-and-ends at the link.
• KY-Gov: Gov. Steve Beshear (D) is out with his first radio ads of the campaign, touting his small-town roots, a week after his likely Republican opponent, David Williams, also went up on radio. Unlike Beshear, Williams faces a primary on May 17th, so he’s also going up on cable TV with a new ad you can watch here. NWOTSOTB for any of these.
• MS-Gov: Turns out PPP did in fact test the Republican gubernatorial primary in Mississippi. Click through if you really, really care. (Hint: You won’t.)
• UT-Gov: State Rep. Stephen Sandstrom, a teabagger fave to challenge immigration apostate Gary Herbert for the governor’s mansion, says on Facebook that he has “no plans or intentions to run.” (Yes, it would be more awesome if his name were Stephen Sandstorm.)
• WV-Gov: In case you weren’t sure where all the players in the Democratic primary field stand on the ideology spectrum (something we’ll be rectifying with a more in-depth post shortly), this is a helpful guidepost: Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin was endorsed by the WV Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber also endorsed the only two legit Republicans running, Betty Ireland and Bill Maloney.
House:
• CA-26, CA-06: Assemblyman Anthony Portantino is getting some high-profile fundraising help: Steve Israel is coming out to Pacific Palisades this weekend for a breakfast event. The same piece also notes that Assemblyman Jared Huffman raised $120K for a federal account in Q1; Huffman is interested in 73-year-old Rep. Lynn Woolsey’s seat, if she retires. Woolsey apparently will decide whether to seek another term by June.
• FL-25: Idiot.
• IL-08: I’m not exactly broken up by this news: Ex-Rep. Melissa Bean, whose race was the closest in the nation last year (she lost by 290 votes to a real piece of work), says she won’t run again. She’s now CEO of something called the Executives Club of Chicago, which doesn’t really give off a man-of-the-people vibe, now does it?
• MI-09: If there’s one guy repeatedly written off as a redistricting victim who I’d really love to see find a way to survive, it’s Rep. Gary Peters. Despite what must have been an exhausting last several years raising money, the Michigan Dem wasted no time getting right back into the game, pulling in over $400K in Q1. He has half a mil on hand.
• NM-01: This Roll Call piece (also linked below in a redistricting item) mentions a few Dem names we hadn’t discussed here before: state Rep. Al Park, Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver, and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, who lost the 2008 primary for this seat.
• NY-13: Ex-Rep. Mike McMahon will join the “government relations” (i.e., lobbying) group at a mid-sized NYC law firm. He’s apparently being brought on as “counsel” status, rather than as a partner, so this could just be a way-station to allow him to pay the bills as he weighs a re-match… but of course, he risks getting hit with the lobbyist taint.
• PA-17: Activist Sheila Dow-Ford confirms the rumors that she’s considering another run against Rep. Tim Holden, against whom she took 35% in the Democratic primary last year. Holden could get a bluer district when all is said and done, so a challenge from the left is a real possibility – but as Dow-Ford herself notes, others are interested, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some bigger-name candidates got in if the seat became markedly more Dem.
• UT-02: Huh – I can’t exactly accuse the Salt Lake Tribune of burying the lede, since they put this in the second graf, but Rep. Jim Matheson says he’s waiting to see what the new district lines look like before deciding whether to run again, or instead if he’ll seek statewide office. A statewide run doesn’t seem like a particularly appealing escape hatch, but both Gov. Gary Herbert (see item above) and Sen. Orrin Hatch could wind up damaged by teabaggers, so you never know. A couple of other statewide offices Matheson could see (Treasurer, Auditor) are up as well.
Also, Some Dude Chuck Williams, an Air Force vet who lost a couple of GOP primaries for Congress… in California… says he plans to challenge Matheson for his House seat, and that he’ll run regardless of where the lines get drawn.
• VA-11: Via FEC Kenobi, Some Dude Christopher Perkins just filed as a Republican to challenge Gerry Connolly. That’s a pretty un-Google-able name, so I can’t tell you much about him… though I do know his home is worth $743,130!
• WV-01: Freshman Rep. David McKinley (R), who won a close race last year, says he’s raised over half a mil in the first quarter. Note, though, that he still has $670K in campaign debt from last cycle.
Other Races:
• Allegheny Co. Exec.: PoliticsPA, via Municipoll, has a race out on the Allegheny, PA County Executive’s race. I’m gonna admit straight off the bat that I don’t know the players here, but click through for details.
• IN-SoS: So a judge allowed a Dem challenge to SoS Charlie White’s eligibility to serve in office to proceed, but really, you just need to read Bob Bobson’s summary of where things stand – and where things will head now. (Bob’s been doing an awesome job of staying on top of this oftentimes-complicated story, so pay attention to him.)
• Champaign, IL Mayor: Here’s a nice little election result that we otherwise missed: The avowedly teabagging mayor of Champaign, Illinois was narrowly defeated by a political newcomer on Tuesday night, the first time, in fact, that he’d ever been opposed in 12 years in office. I’m a little surprised that the university town of Champaign would have elected such a wingnut in the first place, but this is still good news.
• Specials: Johnny Longtorso:
Democrat Kevin Johnson won a 5-point victory over Republican Sonny Sanders in South Carolina’s HD-64.
[On whether this seat was supposedly a Dem stronghold:]
I took another look at it; it’s almost all of a county that Obama got around 56% in along with one or two precincts of an adjacent county, and it’s about 50/50 white/black, so black turnout may have been low. So he just did a few points worse than Obama’s numbers in 2008.
• Wisconsin Recall: Dems filed over 22,000 signatures to recall state Sen. Randy Hopper yesterday. Republicans claim they are close to filing petitions for Sen. Robert Wirch, one of the more endangered Dems on the list.
Remainders:
• WATN?: Ethan Hastert, son of ex-Speaker Denny the Hutt and victim of a genuinely impressive teabagger-fueled anybody-but-Ethan movement to deny him the GOP nomination in IL-14 last year, has managed to win elective office this year. He earned a council seat in the village of Elburn, IL, which has a population that is actually a few thousand smaller than my census tract. Don’t call it a comeback!
Redistricting Roundup:
• Arkansas: Total impasse: The state House rejected the state Senate’s congressional redistricting plan, complementing the Senate’s recent rejection of the House plan. Some procedural maneuvers may be used to try to get things moving forward again, which lawmakers are probably eager to do, since the legislative session was scheduled to end over a week ago.
• California: Look, it’s basically impossible to find a law firm that knows anything about redistricting which has never had any prior political involvement. So I don’t understand why it’s coming as a surprise that Gibson Dunn, the firm hired by the redistricting commission, has a political fund and has used it to make donations. Oh wait, I think I do – it’s because most (but by no means all) of those donations were made to Democrats, so the GOP is continuing its plan to do everything it can to “discredit” the entire process. It’s especially silly, because the firm specifically tasked one Dem attorney and one Republican attorney to lead the effort… but then again, the GOP is especially silly.
• Louisiana: Nathan Gonzales has a good piece untangling the wreck that is Louisiana redistricting, and offering some insight into the behind-the-scenes process. I strongly encourage you to click through the link for the full flavor. (As an inducement, there’s a bowl full of cat food inside.) Apparently, a compromise plan is in the works, but Nathan says that if an agreement isn’t reached by next week, the lege will have to wait until next year to finish its work. (They can’t call a special session?) Anyhow, like I say, read the whole thing.
• New Mexico: Though legislators won’t hold a special session on redistricting until the fall, apparently a plan is brewing among Democrats to excise GOP-leaning Torrance County from the 1st CD. The problem, though, is that while Dems control the lege, Gov. Susana Martinez is, of course, a Republican – a very similar situation to the last round of map-drawing in 2001, which eventually ended up in court.
• Texas: You can play with various Texas map proposals at the link.
• Virginia: Two Virginia items. First, the House of Delegates approved the Republican gerrymander for that body, though most Democrats were actually stupid enough to vote in favor of the plan. (Hasn’t anyone ever heard of a symbolic protest vote to at least signal to your supporters that you know you’re getting the shaft, even if it’s for the greater good?) Second, a (the?) congressional plan was released, and it’s potentially not as bad as it could be. Have a look-see.
Democrats turn up the pressure in Indiana by filing suit in protest of allowing partisan officials to rule on their challenge to Secy. White’s eligibility.
The alternate route, perhaps less fun, would be to offer some sort of compromise (don’t know how this would work legalistically, but in my experience following political shenanigans, where there’s a will, there is often a way) that would acknowledge voters’ intent to keep the Republican Party as a major party while disqualifying votes for White and making Osili the secretary-elect by default.
You’re definitely right that I shouldn’t be giving up on an open seat this far away from the election, so point taken.
But I’m giving up on Texas – no one can convince me its winnable unless PPP finds a Dem running close – which so far, they haven’t. I think it’s an utter waste of money.
Sortof. The map wasn’t found unconstitutional, obviously, but it was ordered to be altered. The GRIT map is worse and would lead to the same thing.
of the non-decimal metrics you guys still use. There’s no REASON why anyone would ever use oz, gallons, miles, Fahrenheit inch or whatever, but hey, by now I have a feeling for how to deal with them and convert them in my brain.
But square feet? 30.48cm²? How much is 4,000 sq ft? Is that like a huge residence, or an average middle-class house, or a pitiful hut? I have no mental model for that.
It’s quite believable that only eight Dems would vote against the GOP gerrymanders of the House of Delegates. The place is full of a bunch of gutless hacks. Ward Armstrong was one of them but since his district was carved up, he voted against it. Nice knowing you, Ward. Not.
Meanwhile, all the Republicans in the State Senate voted against the Dem gerrymander. It’s disheartening that we couldn’t do the same in the other wing of the State Capitol but, again, it’s really not that surprising.
The Iowa plan I is gathering steam as it now seems likely to pass. I still think this plan is as good as it gets for the GOP. By the numbers its as close to 2-2 they can hope for pluas as noted Western Iowa is split between CD3 & CD4. Latham will move, IMO, to take on Boswell.
MO’s plans also look good for the GOP as the D plan and GOP plan both gave Lacy Clay all of St Louis city. Past that I don’t care if MO has three St louis area seats or two. The House & senate plans may force congressman Lutemayer to move but so what?
VA-enough said. This plan looks alot like 8-3. The democrats are giving up a CD seat for the state senate. Looks like a fair swap as I suspect the judges would do a standpat plan.
AR. The senate plan was certainly standpat. The Fayetteville finger was mostly standpat but hurt the GOP a bit more then the senate plan. I look for a compromise on Monday that is standpat in nature. That’s a plus for the GOP.
I looked up his house on Fairfax County’s real estate assessment site. It’s assessed at $721k now, but he bought it for $920k in 2006 (when it was built), so unless he put down a big down payment, he’s underwater. And you thought Sean Duffy had it rough.
You know, one of those types who says crap and then pretends like they don’t know what they are saying. I have a character that’s a politician in a movie script I’m writing like Allen, except the characters a women. Politics is just full of material for good writing.
I rouged out the new Congressional plan on DRA and here’s what I found using the VA Board of Election data for ’08 and Dave’s data (there were slight discrepancies so I wanted to have the actual ’08 percentages per district):
VA-01
Old: McCain 51.4, Obama 47.7; GOP avg 55.7, Dem avg. 44.3
New: McCain 53.4, Obama 46.6; GOP 56.1, Dem 43.9
VA-02
Old: Obama 50.5, McCain 48.5; GOP 52.6, Dem 47.4
New: Obama 50.3, McCain 49.7; GOP 52.6, Dem 47.2
VA-03
Old: Obama 75.5, McCain 23.7; Dem 69, GOP 31
New: Obama 75.6, McCain 24.4; Dem 70.1, GOP 29.9
VA-04
Old: Obama 50.3, McCain 48.8; GOP 53.7, Dem 46.3
New: McCain 51.4, Obama 48.6; GOP 54, Dem 46
VA-05
Old: McCain 50.6, Obama 48.3; GOP 53.4, Dem 46.6
New: McCain 52.5, Obama 46.6; GOP 54, Dem 46
VA-06
Old: McCain 56.9, Obama 41.9; GOP 59.6, Dem 40.4
New: McCain 58.3, Obama 41.7; GOP 54, Dem 46
VA-07
Old: McCain 53.1, Obama 45.9; GOP 57.7, Dem 42.3
New: McCain 56.1, Obama 43.9; GOP 59.1, Dem 40.9
VA-08
Old: Obama 69.3, McCain 29.7; Dem 65.9, GOP 34.1
New: Obama 66.9, McCain 33.1; Dem 64.8, GOP 35.2
VA-09
Old: McCain 58.7, Obama 39.6; GOP 56.6, Dem 43.4
New: McCain 59.9, Obama 40.1; GOP 56.4, Dem 43.6
VA-10
Old: Obama 52.9, McCain 46.1; GOP 52.6, Dem 47.4
New: Obama 50.3, McCain 49.7; GOP 54.1, Dem 45.9
VA-11
Old: Obama 57, McCain 42.1; Dem 52, GOP 48
New: Obama 60.3, McCain 39.7; Dem 55.9, GOP 44.1
I mean the “problems” PPP may or may not be having are debatable but to sample AA turnout at just 10% is just nonsense. The last two presidential exit polls peg it at 20% and even in 2009 it was 16% for goodness sake!
So this is just a natural progression for her….
My point is that we can create a district now which doesn’t “have” to have a Melissa Bean-type.
…and let’s all thank the baby Jesus for that.
But you also want to make some of the other suburban districts winnable for Dems. You might be able to make Bean’s old district bulletproof by taking the bluest parts of Foster’s old district, but then that district might be out of reach.
I grew up in Champaign (I currently live in MI-09). While the UIUC campus is in between Champaign and Urbana, most of the college students live on the Urbana side. Urbana has the reputation of being the more liberal of the two – it’s more of the typical university town. Champaign is politically more like the rest of downstate Illinois than like Madison, for example.
I’m happy to support Bobby Bright in a R+15 district, while I would say we should primary him if he won a D+5. I would just rather not have a district where we need to run a Melissa Bean, since we control the trifecta in Illinois. Hooray for that, btw.
bill nelson is a lock
http://articles.chicagotribune…
And yeah, there are bigger problems to have, but I don’t like to dismiss anyone’s problems because there are bigger ones out there. However, he’s a complete idiot to complain about it publicly or prolong the story by trying to get the video taken down.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
She was perfect for a reddish upscale swing district even if she couldn’t hold it in a wave. If Dems want to retake the new IL8 they probably won’t be able to run someone much to her left.
It may even be more than a small opening – Murdouck seems like a pretty flawed candidate (particulary compared to Lugar)
Putting Torrance county in Pearce’s district is a no-brainer. I don’t know if Martinez would go for it but it really is a logical plan that most courts would agree with as far as being reasonable. Heinrich is about 21,000 over populated and Pearce is about 15,000 under populated. Torrance is about 16,000 people so it really makes the most sense and Torrance borders Pearce’s district anyway. It helps Pearce and with NM-01 going open this cycle it would likely swing it from about D+5 to 6/7 which is more than enough to keep it blue for years to come. It would allow Pearce to go from R+6 to 7/8 (which he’ll need for being as conservative as he is) so it helps both districts and parties out.
Also as a side-note I have been able to confirm that the chickens in Heinrich’s video kickoff are in fact his sons pets. That was not a prop. I am very excited for Heinrich’s campaign. He will make an excellent Senator for years to come and is an excellent choice to fill Bingaman’s legacy. Arguably the two best Senate recruits this cycle (apologies to Chris Murphy) have come in the last week from my native and adopted state!
I’m less policy-oriented than most on here (its why I love the site) so we probably differ in some other way, but On texas, I’m glad to have a kindred ear to my views.
I am eager for the Democrats to contest both the presidential and senate race in 2012 is that we might not have a money advantage like we will probably have then any time soon. We can use Obama’s money to get to work on rebuilding the state party for future races in addition to hopefully get some positive results that year.
Ugh…can you imagine? A hack from the CoG and a Koch Brothers crony serving as the Senatorial caucus for Pennsylvania? Something I don’t want to ever have to think about again.
Here’s the link: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
And here’s what Ben Smith quoted from the Wisconsite:
I agree 100% with all that. For all the frustration people understandably had, everyone completely overlooked the whole time that we ultimately had a bad candidate who ran a bad campaign, in a judicial race against an incumbent with arguably only questionable vulnerability, where even a good candidate with a good campaign would have an uphill climb.
In truth the Supreme Court race was more symbol than substance all along. It was a morale-driver, not very important in its own right to the state’s political future. Even in the union-busting bill litigation, Prosser even in defeat would still sit on the court that decides the case, as Kloppenburg wouldn’t have been sworn in for many months.
So keep the eyes on the prize, which are the recalls.
The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board will not certify the election results until there is a full and complete investigation of Waukesha County’s ballot situation:
http://www.reuters.com/article…
for Governor campaign on Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/DraftV…
I haven’t looked at them too closely except in regards to San Antonio.
Pate Map, drawn by A.J. Pate. For San Antonio/Bexar County we lose one rep, Henry Cuellar. Charlie Gonzalez’ district 20 gets shifted northwest and would include me. Not having looked at the numbers, but off the top of my head, it almost definitely knocks his district down from a safe Democratic seat. Charlie might opt to run in the new 28th and Ciro might run in the new 20th. Lamar Smith would get a much safer district by cutting out Austin/Travis County and adding Gillespie. 2D, 1R
GRIT Map, drawn by Grassroots Institute of Texas. This is likely a Republican gerrymander map. The current chairman of the TXGOP thanked GRITS for helping him win the chairman’s job. GRIT’s website states, “The purpose of GRIT is to build a coalition of Conservative groups whose mission is to develop leadership and rebuild the Conservative infrastructure so as to get our message out to the voters and volunteers, and expand the number of Conservative public office holders.”
Under GRITS map, I get thrown into the ugly 21st with Lamar Smith. Charlie Gonzalez’ district expands a little to take in some Republican areas in NE Bexar County and actually slips into Guadalupe County. Ciro could probably get back his old as it goes further into South Texas. The new 35th would take in a slice of Bexar county and reach the Texas coast. 2D, 2R
MALDEF proposals, drawn by MALDEF. 1) It looks like MALDEF just drew maps that only show majority Hispanic districts. Charlie Gonzalez’ district is probably knocked down slightly from a safe seat. Henry Cuellar and Quico Canseco get put into a district together. From the looks of the 28th, I’m guessing it takes in enough of San Antonio to turn the district into a majority Hispanic district. Possibly 3D, 1R or 2D, 2R
2)This one is more like the current lines. This one gives San Antonio a 5th rep. Again Charlie’s district is made less safe. Canseco’s district gets a lot less Republican by knocking out heavily Republican precincts outside Loop 1604. Cuellar takes in more of San Antonio. And whoever would run in the in 33rd takes in some eastern Bexar County areas. 4D, 1 R
Owens Map, drawn by (I’m assuming) Bill Owens. I think Owens and Pate have been working together on redistricting. Charlie’s district moves northwest and makes it more likely Ciro would run in this district. Charlie would likely opt to run in the new 23rd which takes in a lot of his current district. Lamar’s district gets more Republican. 2D, 1R
My least favorite of these plans is the GRITS plan. I like the Owens and Pate plans followed by MALDEF 2 and MALDEF 1.
T-shirts!
https://secure.actblue.com/pag…
Is anyone else excited for this race? I think it’s in May, but there’s been so little written about it in the media. The primary for the Dems is just a clash of the titans. You have the Acting Governor(former Senate leader) who is a Manchin-style Democrat supported by industry, the young female Secretary of State, the old school labor dem Speaker of the House, the State treasurer and the Senate president.
For people who’ve been following this race –
Who do you think has a shot of upsetting Tomblin in the primary, if anybody, and could the divisive Dem primary hurt our chances in the general? Also, does the other candidate in the Republican primary have a chance of beating Betty Ireland?
http://www.foxnews.com/project…
They find Huckabee barely leading the GOP primary, with only Romney, Palin and Trump also breaking double-digits. Giuliani and Paul are beating Gingrich. Obama beats Trump by 18 in a head-to-head.
Yea, Idiot is right. As much as I love West in FL-22, I hate that we got stuck with this joker in FL-25. I”m sure it’s only for one term – I can’t decide if I want him to quit or if I want him to be beaten in the primary. Were I in that seat, I would not vote for him under any circumstances. I might even seek the nomination of the Florida Whig Party just to run against his ass.
Fleming attacks Boustany for supporting the senate redistricting plan that would have hurt Fleming’s chances in his district so that Boustany would stay completely safe.
http://www.nola.com/politics/i…
Louisiana is such a weird state. Not much party loyalty on either side(the republicans let a Democrat remain as majority leader after they took control of the senate, I don’t think that would have happened in any other state..)
Also important to note is that Boustany is much more influential than Fleming due to being a close friend and ally of Boehner. Fleming had to be really pissed to publically attack him.
MRG is just horrible. Not only their formula, but that they even did a ridiculous match-up between Zahra and Granholm. Everyone with any sense knows that Granholm isn’t ever going to run for any other office in Michigan. If they wanted to be helpful, they’d have stacked Zahra up against actual court candidates of the recent past.
BTW, just anecodtally on the ground, it seems to me that Stabenow is looking more like a shoe-in by the day. The state GOP better pounce very soon because the window’s closing on them. And, they won’t be able to count on the “Tough Nerd” turnout in 2012. They are going to need someone (or something) very exciting to compete if the Republicans keep on keeping on with the insanity they’ve been on as of late.