SSP Daily Digest: 4/12

Senate:

• AZ-Sen: I’d encourage you to read this long Newsweek piece on Gabby Giffords, which I think paints a much more realistic picture of the prospects for her recovery (and possible future election campaigns). One explicitly horserace detail: 2010 Senate challenger Rodney Glassman is considering a run, and says that “if he did run, he would do so as a placeholder for Giffords, vowing to turn over his contribution list and infrastructure to her the moment she entered the race.”

• FL-Sen: Looks like Adam Hasner has taken a page directly from fellow Republican Mike Haridopolos: He failed to file a personal finance disclosure form within the required sixty days after leaving office last November. After a Democratic activist filed a complaint, he hurriedly moved to comply. The GOP field sure is shaping up to be a bunch of bumblers.

• IN-Sen: Dick Lugar announced that he raised $974K in Q1, or about eight times what GOP primary challenger Richard Mourdock says he pulled in, and now has $3 million on hand. I wonder if Mourdock will be able to make up the gap. If not – and if he doesn’t get some outside help from something like the Club for Growth – is it possible his much-hyped bid to topple Lugar could turn out to be a dud?

• NM-Sen: Heather Wilson says she took in $300K in the final three-and-a-half weeks of the quarter since announcing her campaign, and has a little less than that on hand. Of course, these are the low-hanging kumquats. Let’s see if she can sustain this.

• NY-Sen: The Fix points out that if you search for “Rick Lazio,” the description that Google gives back to you is “Republican candidate for the US Senate from New York.” I’m gonna bet that’s an artifact of his 2000 race against Hillary Clinton, though, not a sign that he’s gearing up to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Try Googling “Swing State Project.” The result? “Weblog focusing on the political news from and about the key swing states in the 2004 Presidential election.” Not so much anymore.

• TX-Sen: Though “everyone” expects Republicans Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to run for Senate this year, and polls showed him crushing all comers, it’s going to be a hugely expensive multi-way battle, and I’ve never quite gotten the sense that Dewhurst truly wants to become a senator. So I’m really not too surprised to see him tell a radio host the other day: “I need to make a decision in June whether I’m going to run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 or stay right where I am and run for governor in 2014….” What makes this even more interesting is that Rick Perry could still seek another term in 2014, which suggests that Dewhurst is trying to tell Perry it’s time to move on (he’s been in office since 2000), or that he’s willing to take on Gov. Goodhair in a primary. Either way, fun!

Meanwhile, in the realm of Republicans who are actually running for Kay Bailey Hutchison’s open Senate seat, Ted Cruz says he raised over a million bucks since launching his campaign in January. A good number, I suppose, but this primary is going to cost everyone a lot more than that.

Gubernatorial:

• FL-Gov: Dem Bob Buckhorn, the newly-elected Mayor of Tampa, said he won’t run for governor in 2014. However, Dem chair Rod Smith refused to rule out such a run for himself, which columnist Peter Schorsch rather wisely points out is probably not such a smart call: “After all, why should Alex Sink, Dave Aronberg, etc., go out of their to make Smith look good as FDP Chair if all he is going to do is turn around and run against them in a 2014 primary?”

• WV-Gov: Republican businessman Bill Maloney is up with his first TV ad of the race, while SoS Betty Ireland (who had generally been assumed to have a lock on the GOP nomination) won’t go on the air until next week. Could an upset be in the offing?

House:

• CT-05: Former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty, who had only recently formed an exploratory committee, officially announced yesterday that she’d seek the Dem nomination to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, who is of course running for Senate.

• IA-02: Could we see some sack-on-sack violence in Iowa’s (probable) new 2nd CD? Diarist BJazz at Bleeding Heartland makes a pretty compelling case for why former IA First Lady Christie Vilsack might choose to challenge Rep. Dave Loebsack in the Democratic primary for the state’s new southeastern district. Loebsack is a good vote, and I think it would be a shame to have this kind of battle, but as BJazz says, this is politics.

• NH-01, NH-02: Hey, sports fans – do you hate Charlie Bass? Good news! You’re not alone. PPP just tested favorability ratings across the board in New Hampshire, and residents of the 2nd CD already dislike their old/new Republican rep by an ugly 31-49 margin. Even more good news: freshman GOPer Frank Guinta in the 1st CD is underwater, too, at just 34-41. Check out the link for scores for other Granite State politicians (including both senators, who fare well). There’s also a state lege generic ballot question, which shows that Republicans might have to give back the gains they made last year: they trail Dems 49-41.

Other Races:

• NJ St. Sen.: Olympic track champion Carl Lewis, once known as the world’s fastest human, announced yesterday that he’s running for New Jersey state Senate as a Democrat in the 8th district. This is some very Republican territory, but Dems are hopeful Lewis’s presence on the ticket will energize their voters. (Also note that Monday was the filing deadline for this year’s state legislative races.)

• Wisconsin Recall: It looks like Democrats have scored another good recruit in their recall efforts: Oshkosh Deputy Mayor Jessica King, who lost to Randy Hopper by just 263 votes in a 2008 recount, is expected to announce tomorrow that she’ll seek a rematch in a recall election. On the Republican side, meanwhile, a potential candidate declined: former Packers defensive lineman Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (aka “KGB”) said he won’t run against Dem Dave Hansen. (Signatures have not been filed against Hansen yet.)

Meanwhile, the state’s Government Accountability Board (which supervises elections) is demurring on setting any election dates, and plans to ask a court “to give us some flexibility in the review period, so we can consolidate elections.”

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:

Three seats are up on Tuesday. First, in Connecticut’s HD-148, left open by the Democrat being elected to the State Senate in the last round of Connecticut specials, we have Democratic attorney Dan Fox facing off against Republican Ralph Antonacci, whose previous claim to fame was losing the Republican primary for the seat in 2010. Also in the mix are a Green and two indies. Carlo Leone held this seat by a 2-1 margin in 2010, so I don’t anticipate it being in danger.

Next we have Minnesota’s SD-66, left open by the Democrat being appointed to the state Public Utilities Commission. Democratic college professor Mary Jo McGuire is vying against Republican Greg Copeland, formerly the city manager of Maplewood, in an overwhelmingly Democratic seat in St. Paul (we’re talking 3-1 margins for the incumbent in the past two elections).

Finally, we’ve got a Republican seat up, South Carolina’s SD-16, another seat left open by a Congressional winner (Mick Mulvaney). The Democrats have accountant Keith Brann running, while the Republicans chose Mulvaney’s predecessor in the district, Greg Gregory, who served in the Senate for 16 years. There’s also a Libertarian running. I looked up Mulvaney’s performance in 2008, when he was first elected, and he only won by 7 points, which was kind of interesting, but of course, that was a completely different set of circumstances.

{Ed. Note: Apparently, Brann moved to SC from New Jersey three years ago, and initially sought this seat as a Republican, but found that the Palmetto GOP was too extreme for him.}

And that’s pretty much it until next month. There’s another special in Louisiana at the end of the month with two Republicans running.

Remainders:

• Census: Interesting: The Census Bureau mis-allocated over 25,000 people living on Navy bases or aboard ships in six different states and has had to issue corrections as a result. What other errors are lurking out there?

• WATN?: In case you had a burning desire to know what became of Bart Stupak, he’s joined the law firm Venable. Obviously Venable is a big firm, but Dave Weigel entertainingly points out that one of their clients is Planned Parenthood of Maryland.

In other Where Is That Asshole Now? news, disgraced ex-NY state Sen. Hiram Monserrate is now working at a pizza joint. (Of course, he really should be in the joint instead.)

333 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/12”

  3. For the State Senate, only one seat went unopposed: LD-13, a Republican-held seat.

    In the Assembly, Democrats failed to field candidates in LD-10, and Republicans only put up one candidate for LD-21.

    So out of 120 seats, only 4 unopposed. You need 100 signatures to get on the ballot, and there are a few candidates that have just over that number, so there may be more races ending up unopposed.

    1. was great about this race was that in the Convention, party members had a chance to nominate either a Progressive Gay Activist or a Liberal Gay Mayor. While they chose Eustace over Gardner (whom I supported) progressives all across the spectrum should be happy with this selection.

      The 38th district will be a competitive one with a slight Dem lean so there is a possibility that the GOP wins this one (especially so in an off-year election).  

  4. But that’s all there has been, rumors. This far out from the primary, though, I think they can afford to take their time. Mourdock’s not going to win by outspending Lugar, anyways… that was never in the cards.  

    1. He could run with the claim, “I placed third in my reelection campaign for Governor. Getting fewer votes than a former KKK member. Then I placed third again in my comeback bid for Governor. Vote for me. I’m a winner.”

      1. Not surprising, considering the Republican’s stature, but that’s pretty bad. Reminds me of a special election we had in Virginia Beach a couple years ago where the Democratic candidate was a 24-year-old part-time employee at Ruby Tuesday. He lost by a similar margin.

    1. than he had any right to in 2010. The fact that he almost won an open seat in what was clearly a wave year is pretty remarkable. He could have easily ended up like Deeds II.

      I don’t attribute any significance to how “independent” voters vote. Party ID doesn’t mean much of anything. Sestak would have won if more young people and minorities had shown up.  

  7. AZ-Sen: Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but is it possible he’s doing this solely to fund raise for Giffords? If so, it’s actually very smart.

    IN-Sen: I have to think Murdock’s biggest hurdle is winning the primary, and I would think he could do that without having as much money as Lugar. In fact, I would surmise he could have a lot less and still win, as long as the base remains unhappy with Lugar. Were he to win the primary, the money would come fairly easily.

    TX-Sen: Any news, at all, on potential Democrats for this race? Even their opinions on the latest results from “American Idol” would be nice, if only to convince me someone is alive. What the hell is going on?

    Also, I think this race is underrated as far as its potential to be a huge drain on Republicans. Perhaps it won’t hurt their image for the general, but it’s starting to resemble the line in front of the Apple store before the iPhone is released. How many candidates are realistically going to enter on the Republican side?

    NH 01, 02: Don’t get me started on Independents.

    And on a completely unrelated, I present this: http://multiplechoicemitt.com/

    Scroll to (5), where he talks about the Bush tax cuts. He mentions in the clip how none of his five sons have any investment vehicles like a 401K set up. This, from a business school graduate and the CEO of Bain Capital. Perhaps there’s some good reason why they chose not to do it, but all of the usual reasons revolve around not having enough money for most people. Most people, of course, don’t come from hugely rich families like the Romneys, so I’m genuinely curious why this is the case. No, it’s not any of my business, but still, if business leaders are supposed to be so financially savvy, then what the hell happened?  

  8. Lugar reported contributions from all 92 counties in Indiana; he isn’t going down without a fight.

    1. They both split their party voters about evenly but Toomey won indies 55-45. But sure, Sestak would have won with better Democratic turnout.

  10. This is some very Republican territory, but Dems are hopeful Lewis’s presence on the ticket will energize their voters.

    **rimshot**

    Anyway, here’s some more info on the special elections.

    CT HD-148: Located entirely within Stamford, the Democratic-leaning Fairfield County town that Dan Malloy was mayor of prior to being elected Connecticut governor. Stamford as a whole voted for Obama 64-35, making it more Democratic than the state as a whole. As Johnny says, Safe D.

    MN SD-66: Of the two constituent house districts, one voted for Obama with 76% and the other with 77%.

    SC SD-16: Parts of Lancaster and York counties. Here are some recent results for both counties in their entirety.

    President 2008

    Lancaster: McCain 57-42

    York: McCain 58-41

    Governor 2010

    Lancaster: Haley 52-46

    York: Haley 61-38

    House 2010

    Lancaster: Mulvaney 59-41

    York: Mulvaney 63-37

    In 2010, the Dem incumbent in HD 44 (which partially overlaps with SD 16 in Lancaster) won 57-43. In HD 45, which completely overlaps in Lancaster and partially in York, the Rep incumbent won 65-35 (although only 60-40 in the Lancaster portion).

    1. Do we really need another poll saying Huckabee leads? I went for Nevada. Want to see if that Berkley internal was accurate. Then again I don’t think any public pollsters have the hang of polling the state.

      1. At any rate, Obama got a surprisingly large percentage of the white vote for a Deep South state (26%), and unlike in Georgia there was a large age gap with young voters going 55-44 Obama and older votes going 66-33 McCain. What this suggests to me is that younger white voters are open to voting more Democratic. Also, AAs were only 25% of the electorate in 2008, something that would likely change if Obama contested the state.

  11. Link

    Trump 19%

    Huckabee 19%

    Palin 12%

    Gingrich 11%

    Romney 11%

    Paul 7%

    Bachmann 5%

    Daniels 3%

    Santorum 2%

    Pawlenty 2%

    Barbour <1%

    This is hilarious.

    2. He got just as many Democrats in Pennsylvania as he did in Connecticut last time, so I think that concern was overrated. It’s always possible he could be slipping, but I can’t see any particular reason he’d drop so much so quickly. If he were polling at 85 percent, I could believe it, but 70 and 75 percent?  

  12. Has anyone else been wondering if part of Christie Vilsack mulling a run against Loebsack in IA-02 is so that she can set herself up for a run for senate in 2016 if Grassley retires?  She did make some noise about running against him last cycle before deciding against it so maybe she’s playing for the longer term.

    And on a related note, if that seat were to come open in ’16 would either Braley or Loebsack (assuming he wins the primary) be a strong contender to win statewide?

    1. but they’re not adjacent. Lancaster is up on the Northern Neck, while York is next to Newport News.

      1. In this interview with CBN, he talks about how many Bibles he owns because he’s afraid that something bad will happen to them if he gives them away or something.  By the looks of it, that probably makes him obsessive compulsive.

        1. I just don’t see it. Let’s put it this way: which one should Democrats prioritize? I’d say focus on unions or latinos above suburban moderates because those efforts would yield longer term gains.  

    1. From what’s been reported, so many hispanics have fled the state thanks to that immigration law (and after the census was done), that I think we’re getting a very false reading of how many Dem voters are left in the state.

  15. The Dems nominated Maywood mayor Timothy Eustace as one of their assembly candidates for LD-38, which is mostly in northern Bergen Co with a bit of Passaic as well. LD-38 is currently represented by all Democrats but I’m not sure how the redistricting changed its partisan affiliation. If Eustace wins, he will be the first state legislator in New Jersey to be openly gay at the time of first election.

    2. Then after he got the nomination he put hardly anything in. Also, there were reports of him losing staff because of him acting like a spoiled jackass, etc.  

      1. I mean man, he’s trying to come across as “normal” but there’s a difference in “normal” and just plain boring.  

    1. Even in 2010, with its Republican wave and mediocre black turnout, Sheheen came very close to Haley (a Palin endorsee). With a Democratic wave and high black turnout I could see Obama beating Palin.

  21. Johnny, where did you see that Ralph Antonacci is the Republican candidate? Everywhere I’ve looked says it is Charles Pia. Also, one of the indies is actually a Democrat who didn’t get the nomination.

    I’m not sure if the results are all in or just mostly in, but the main D candidate leads with 39%, the Repub follows with 26%, and the other Dem has 22%.

  22. I think that these great poll results for Obama in Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi etc are all phantom results because it’s obvious that undecideds will break at extremely disproportionate levels for the Republican candidate. These are the most polarized states in the country and while it’s extremely easy for Obama to have a baseline in the low to high 40s getting that extra 2 or 3 percent is not worth the time or effort. It would be much easier for Obama to focus on Missouri, Arizona and Montana than to focus on South Carolina and Georgia.

    I’d argue that it could be a waste of time for Obama to contest North Carolina against Huckabee if it wasn’t for the rapid creative class infestation of the research triangle.  

    1. I actually just did a paper on why Mormons shouldn’t be considered “Christians” for my English class. Although, there are A LOT of people who say they’re Christians who really aren’t, and idk I guess I could over-look it if I had to.  

      1. I think Mark Warner probably has a lot more appeal than you give him credit for. He is probably not a democratic visionary, but he looks like a solid moderate liberal that is also a very competent executive. He’s got the sort of background that would make him a formidable contender in a national contest, as long as he’s able to, you know, campaign well, which some people are skeptical of.

        But anyway, as I am destined to live my days exhausted because I can’t put down my laptop, I ended up roaming through Twitter and came across this: http://bit.ly/e2GcnL

        I figured you would like it.

        Maher’s more of a comedian than anything else, but you can tell he’s smart, and he approaches topics that others do not. I don’t always agree with him, but I like him. And I like Rachel Maddow, even though I never watch her show. The two of them together was bound to please me, but in an old man, “Yeah, those bums/bastards!” sort of way. Which is what it did. At the end, he says, “I hate them as much as you do.” I’m still not sure I agree with that, but I’m closer now than I have ever been.

        I’m incredibly nervous about tomorrow. As much as Obama has irritated me, I’m still a big supporter of his. I want to remain so. So if he manages to not shit the bed with the deficit reduction talk–which, in my mind, includes talking about cutting spending besides that which is discretionary, supporting higher taxes primarily on the rich/ending deductions and loopholes, defending the health care reform as responsible entitlement reform and outlining other worthwhile, non-drastic, non-Ryan-like changes to public health care spending, and some subtle but sharp digs at the the Republicans–I’ll be fine. It’ll be the sort of thing I need to double down on my support of him, flaws and all. I imagine a lot of other people would feel the same–even people like you, who aren’t reflexively critical but thoughtful about it. Hopefully, it’ll be the start of an upswing for him and his campaign. [fingers crossed]

        By the way, sorry if this is incoherent. I’m definitely going to bed now.  

    3. did release it.

      It’s inaccurate to pretend this is based on logic. This isn’t a case of “oh they’re probably wrong but let’s release it just to put this to rest.” No, this isn’t a legitimate concern, what it is is racists trying to find a way to invalidate his presidency because they couldn’t beat him at the ballot box. And like DCCyclone says all the time, it would never happen to a white person.

  24. I’m glad she’s faring better than her House counterparts. The Senate Republican Conference has an acute shortage of women, and she’s one of the few that isn’t seen as an apostate.

  26. http://www.wweek.com/portland/…

    First, from a Portland city commissioner (and I suspect Mayoral candidate)

    Portland City Commissioner Dan Saltzman became the first, if not the only, local elected leader to openly criticize Wu.

    Soon-to-be primary opponent as predicted by user Sao Magnifico

    And yesterday WW reported that Weigler had recently signed on as Brad Avakian’s political adviser, strongly suggesting Avakian is about to announce his campaign against Wu for the Democratic nomination in the primary next year.

    More info: http://www.wweek.com/portland/…

    1. what President Obama will raise —

      $350-$500M to be competitive w/r/t media, organizing, etc.

      But that’s their other dilemma — only someone who makes the R base enthusiastic can raise that kind of money. But someone who appeals to the R base in that way invites an Obama landslide.

  27. It says on ballotpedia that after the 2010 elections that the Dems had a 27-7 advantage in the State Senate.  Now, it says that the current partisan make-up of the WV State Senate is 28-6 Dem.  I can’t figure out what changed or whether there was a defection or special election.  Anyone here know?

  28. I’ve heard reports that he did on Piers’s show, but idk why he’d do it there if he did, he’s got low ratings.  

    1. His “popularity” in NJ is entirely the result of a very unique environment and set of circumstances in Jersey that he’s been able to exploit effectively.  However, just as Evan Bayh has little appeal outside of Indiana and Mark Warner elicits yawns outside of Virginia, Chris Christie would have more trouble outside of Jersey than people think… at least that’s my opinion.

  30. this conversation just got extremely off topic.

    New convo

    What should the Democrats spend more time and money doing:

    -trying to register new Hispanic voters, having a new energized outreach to current ones for turnout purposes and raising the immigration issue again

    or

    -investing time and money on moderate suburban swing voters in the Southwest and Southeast. Focus on education, technology and alternative energy. WTF (win the future)

    or

    -Wave the union flag over the Rustbelt for the working class. Focus on “free” trade, success of the auto bailouts and manufacturing over the past two years (true story) and class warfare.  

  31. wonderful site. I got too into my thoughts, and shouldn’t have said some things I did. I won’t let it happen again, and I hope to provide good comments from now on and remain in control of what I say.  

    I truely am sorry, and I hope you guys can forgive me.  

  32. Former State Senator Pat Kreitlow, who was defeated in last year’s Republican wave, is forming an exploratory committee against Duffy:

    http://chippewa.com/news/local…

    While the fact that he lost 54-46 does not inspire, he does have name recognition in the district and would be a formidable opponent.  The article mentions that since his home in Chippewa Falls is close to Kind’s district, he could be drawn into that district.  However, I think it is more likely Portage County will be drawn into Kind’s in order to fend off a challenge from Lassa.  

  33. I play team trivia on Tuesday night.

    FInal question, wager between 0 and 20 points.

    Put the following US Senators in order (YES!) by age (okay . . .)

    LAMAR! McCain, Rubio, Kay Bailey Hutchison.

    I flipped LAMAR! and KBH, wagered all 20 and missed. I put McCain, KBH, LAMAR! Rubio. I had everyone’s age right except for LAMAR! who I pegged for 65 instead of 70. I feel I need a public rebuke on this site or something for missing that.

    I need a drink.

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