NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley Is In

140 thoughts on “NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley Is In”

1. I wouldn’t have minded AG Cortez Masto or SoS Ross Miller. But now this is going to be a race and a real opportunity for Dems to win a GOP held Senate seat.

   This also means that NV will now have 3 open seats next year: Berkley’s NV1, Heller’s NV2 and the new NV4.

   On the Dem side I hope that either State Treasurer Kate Marshall or Assemblywoman Debbie Smith run for Heller’s Reno based seat.

   The two open Clark County races oughta be very interesting, depending on how they would be drawn any of the following could run: former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, current Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, Senate Maj. Leader Stephen Horsford, and former Rep. Dina Titus. A primary for either seat wouldn’t be out of the question.

2. Now let’s win this.  We need to put some of their seats in play in the Senate.

   I’m increasingly thinking that the House R’s may shoot themselves in the foot with a government shutdown, which could give us the house back.  Even with that, though, we’ll need a little margin in the senate to actually pass budgets.  This would be a huge seat.

   1. I looked at his comments on RRH once, and he referred to Republican recruits as being on “our side” or something like that, so…

      Either way, I don’t miss him.

      1. The rurals aren’t a huge portion of the population, but they’re the folks that vote most often. Shelley just has to make sure she’s not losing those counties by obscene 3-1 or 5-1 margins.

         Last month, I had a chance to meet Nevada State Controller Kim Wallin during Equality Days. She couldn’t stress enough the importance of campaigning in the rurals. She only BARELY won in 2006 because her campaign manager told her to ignore the rurals. Last year, she had a different plan and won by a wider margin.

      2. but you need to perform well.

         Berkley also needs to play in Washoe I think, even though that’s Heller’s home base. Heller will campaign in Vegas. He needs to do.
         

3. While these two candidates appear quite evenly matched, I also give the edge to Berkley.  Her base in Clark/Las Vegas is clearly preferable to Heller’s in Washoe and the cow counties, especially given his recent reinvention as a dyed in the wool tea partier, and of course we are dealing with a presidential turnout scenario.  While there won’t be a spectacular Whitman/Schwarzenegger-style ad to run, linking Heller to Angle and reminding voters of national Republicans’ Angle-esque policy positions should be pretty easy given the high profile of the 2010 Senate campaign.

   The big question is money.  Reid had gobs of it because he was in the marquee race of the cycle; even though Berkley presents Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, her campaign is going to have to work a little harder.  Reid also didn’t have a Byron Georgiou to dispense with in the primary.

4. Best chance of picking up NV

   1. he was pretty much just rdelbov lite.

   2. from his posts that he was an ex-Republican, but is now a centrist indie that slightly favors Dems over Repubs.

      I guess I was wrong.

   3. I, too, at times thought him a GOPer, but he kept it close enough to the vest that I could never be sure, and at times I thought nah, he’s just a cantankerous Dem.

      My original suspicion was right.

      The only SSPer I’ve ever thought was a GOPer but appears to be a Dem after all was Mark, although even in his case I’m surprised he stopped coming around much after the election, and virtually never in recent months.  But I suppose he might not be interested in spring training, maybe his interest is limited to the regular season (i.e., the months leading up to the actual election).

5. I wonder how many races are going to go down to the wire.  

   1. At that point, why not start making a play for almost every congressional district in the country, or at least all of the ones in states Obama plans on contesting? You’d either see a significant number of Republicans bolt from the party platform on this or a huge wedge driven between the base and the candidates. If they could take an average or two three from just the swing states, they’d more than easily take back the House. And when you add in states like New York and California, the numbers could really climb.
      

6. dems seem to be getting their top recruits (kaine and berkley so far).

7. one of the arguments for johnson in SD was that dems needed to keep the senate for daschle to remain majority leader.  I wonder if that would be an acceptable strategy, or if reid’s still too unpopular to associate herself with.

   1. notpjorourke has not posted since 3/23, though.

8. Right-wingers Lippold and Angle are in, who else?  Also, is the Treasurer still strongly considering running as well?

9. I suspect many Independents might well vote-split an Obama/Heller ticket. Berkeley’s a good candidate in that she brings home the Clark County base, but I still think this is probably Heller’s to lose. Neither candidate strikes me as particularly gaffe-prone, but I don’t think any Republicans will cross over and vote for Berekley, whereas conservaDems might bolt for Heller. It’ll be a high single-digit victory, methinks.

10. About 3 weeks ago people were bitching and moaning about Dem recruiting results and worriworts waxing philosophical about the impending doom

    3 weeks later, we have preferred candidates in various races and things are certainly looking up.  Some will bitch about the slow-to-build field in Massachusetts, but that has to be seen as smaller potatoes since the race will form how it will no matter when everyone gets in, be it today or 2 months from now.

    1. maybe there isn’t that much to do in the desert

       Ahem… National Geographic Adventure named us the #1 best place to live & play! :-p

11. I went to RRH and I can’t stop. They are referring to Berkley as a man. I should probably just stop going over there.  

12. Gotta give Patty her props. I was skeptical at first since it seemed like no one wanted anything to do with the DSCC this cycle, but Murray really has brought in the top recruits for a lot of the races so far.
    
    Heinrich, Kaine, Murphy, and Berkley are all candidates I (and the rest of the party) can be proud to rally behind.
    
    As far as recruitment goes, my eyes are now on Arizona, Massachussetts, Indiana, Maine, and Hawaii. Hopefully she can find a real progressive to run against Ed Case.

13. I drew a Nevada map last month assuming Heller and Berkley Senate runs. I’m even more confident now that we may see a final map from The Legislature that at least somewhat resembles this… Unless they can’t agree on any map, and the courts have to decide!

    Perhaps I’ll release another Nevada map over the weekend… 😉

14. Afraid of their right wing.  It’s probably far enough away from the election to matter, but do moves like this play poorly in 2012 Senate campaigns?  They voted against a bill that passed with bipartisan support, that the majority of Republicans in the House supported.  It’s pretty easy to argue they’re “outside of the mainstream.”

    Flake voted against it too but that’s not really a surprise.

15. It could go either way but I am sure glad to have her as a candidate. Can we get Titus to succeed her? I love her as well and do not want Reid as his baggage is not needed here.  

    1. without a Reno-to-Vegas gerrymander, NV-02 will have to shrink, and will likely become a district that Obama won. Combine that with presidential turnout, an open seat, a potentially strong Democratic candidate, and a potentially weak Republican candidate, and you get a seat that can’t be called Safe R.

       The best Republicans can hope for is 2-1-1 I think. But 2-0-2 is probably more likely, although the two swing districts will probably have D+ PVIs.

16. Seems like a good approach. Heinrich, Kaine, Berkley week after week.  I’m guessing next it’ll be Joe Donnelly in Indiana.

Comments are closed.