This report from Nathan Gonzales is pretty interesting — and surprising:
Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D) is likely to take on Cong. Steve King (R) in Iowa’s new 4th Congressional District, according to a Democratic source in the Hawkeye State. Vilsack, however, has not yet made a final decision.
Vilsack hails from Mount Pleasant, which is right in the heart of the new second district, where she was rumored to be interested in running for Congress. But with Loebsack staking his claim in the 2nd CD, it looks like she’s trying to avoid yet another tragic incident of Sack-on-Sack violence by exploring other options.
The 4th CD, as it stands today, is pretty tough territory: Obama lost it by 44-54, and Kerry got stomped by 39-60 back in 2004. Under the proposed lines, however, it’s now a district that Obama lost by only 48-50, and even John “Who Among Us Does Not Love NASCAR?” Kerry held down 44% under these lines. In short, that’s still tough terrain for a Democrat, but it’s significantly more fertile than before; with King’s penchant for letting his freak flag fly and a credible opponent working against him, this could be an interesting race.
If true, this would really be one of the marquee House races of 2012.
Finally, a true chance to take down Steve King, one of the most odious men in Congress.
She thinks he’s crazy so she was pretty disgusted. I told her I hoped Vilsack would run against him instead of against Loebsack. What do you know, I guessed right! Too bad my predictions aren’t right everytime.
Anyway, I like our chances of beating King with the new lines. Tom Vilsack was pretty popular right? Maybe she can win over some Republicans that liked her husband when he was in office.
The new seat is about R+5, which is within the realm of what is winnable for a Democrat and King is wacky enough where some voters might sway to Vilsack.
Bonus would be for King to respond to a legitimate challenge by becoming even more shrill. That won’t just hurt him, but all Iowa Democrats and the red nominee for Prez.
He won 49.29% to 48.12%. The fact that her husband won the district in a bad year for Dems is probably a good sign that the district has some regard for the Vilsacks. Hopefully a Steve King freakout can help a bit especially with people not used to him.
Considering the district is a bit more Dem than the old IA-05. How does she plan to establish a base, though? Mount Pleasant is a heck of a long way from IA-04.
I’m quite happy that the Democrats appear to have averted a sack-on-sack incident.
I’ll get my coat…
FWIW the only county in the new 4th that is experiencing any real growth over the last decade is Dem leaning Story County (12% growth, 57-41 Obama). Of the remaining 38 counties 32 lost population and the other 6 had growth of 6% or less). If those trends continue the district could become slightly less Republican over time.
BTW I was born in this District (Sac County) and still have relatives there. A lot of old very conservative people in that part of the state, including my relatives.
is GREAT news. I did not want to see her primary anyone. I really like Loebsack. This is a win-win solution. You know this map has the potential to be full Democrat, for a time anyway. I suspect that if Vilsack runs and wins she will run for the Senate in either 2014 or 2016. I’m not complaining at all though, if Steve King got defeated I would be giddier than a school girl. In fact if Vilsack does run I think I’ll throw some coy her way.
is quite a bit for a very conservative incumbent like King to handle. I guess he shouldn’t be surprised though, he knew his counties were losing population and he would have to expand out geographically, especially with the state losing a district.
Still, I think he might have been counting on still having all the counties on the western border, instead of his district being split horizontally now and having to eat up even more Dem-leaning central Iowa districts. We can beat him.
I was very doubtful this was gonna happen. I lived in this district from 1977-2001 and my mother still does. Curious to see if she really pulls the trigger. I guess I am a little bit of a naysayer both on whether she will do this and her chances if she does. I agree the carpetbagging thing won’t be a huge problem for her but the problem will be that she has to expand beyond her base. If she had deep roots in part of the district she could count on some local crossover support. I mean I am glad King is being targeted but I’m not sure just being a wife of an elected official and never having run an election is the recipe to knock off a GOP incumbent in a GOP district. Plus believe me the very large Republican base here will be super motivated even if Obama is easily carrying the state. King would love nothing more then to set up a narrative of a liberal wife of an Obama cabinet secretary coming in to steal this seat away from him with out of state money…he will play this up big.
I wonder how much we’re going to see in the next few months of grade-A names getting into house races that, at the outset, look like long-shots. You have to think, especially in a state like Iowa, you’re looking at a weak top-of-the-ticket on the Republican side.
I mean, if Mitt Romney is the nominee, is Steve King’s base really going to be fired up?
26, Male, Senior Economics Adviser, United States Senate (D-OK)
to that “Sack-on-Sack violence” joke. Kudos.