So, I’ve decided to post the following partial map of Illinois just to get some opinions on how viable this seems.
My primary goal so far has been to create three Democratic districts in downstate Illinois. By my calculation, the IL-12, IL-15, and IL-17 districts on this map are each 53% Kerry districts. That means that the Democratic performance of IL-12 and IL-17 has been nudged up (they were 52% and 51% Kerry respectively) and a new, equally Democratic mid-cities district has been created (the orange IL-15 district).
Drawing three Democratic districts outside Chicagoland is obviously one lynchpin to a 14-4 Illinois map.
Meanwhile, I’m unsure when I’ll get the chance to work on Chicago & the collar counties some more (I’ve actually drawn them out in part, but I removed it from this map). My main priority has been collecting the Obama/McCain data for the entire state so that it can be uploaded to Dave’s App. I expect to have that done by the end of the upcoming week.
Note that the green districts on this map (IL-11 & IL-16) are just partially drawn. They are meant to ultimately be two of four GOP votesinks, the others being the yellow & tan districts on this map.
So, please give me feedback! Maybe it’ll inspire me to finish my map. 🙂
and very similar to the approach I am taking, although caution seems to be pushing me toward a 13-5 (with a GOP vote sink snaking from Algonquin and Cuba through Barrington down into Wayne, Wheaton, Downers Grove, the GOP areas of Naperville before finishing off in eastern Will). These voters are just too Republican particularly down-ballot to risk putting in a swingy district where our local bench is weak to begin with (and would just elect another Judy Biggert anyhow). It is important when drawing congressional seats not to solely go by national elections; particularly in regions like suburbs where you have lots of moderates and independents. Given that the other side grossly outspends us, unless we have a million Melissa Beans out there, I am dubious about just doing 4 downstate vote sinks. Obama 2008 numbers won’t prove it to me; I would need to see what these districts did in 2004 (if Kerry got 51% or better than, with demographic shifts, it would seem safe) or whether a Democrat held his own (or at least would have made a race of it in 2010).
With the exception of the midstate cities seat, my map is slightly neater than yours, partially based on recognition that there are townships and counties there that if it doesn’t affect the toplines all that much, should be whole for good-government reasons. Besides, we are going to get excoriated by the news media when the aggressive Democratic gerrymander gets enacted (and whether it is 12-6, 13-5, or 14-4 in the end of the day, compared to 8-11 currently, it will be aggressive). I cannot think of any other state where the delegation will shift as radically as Illinois. The GOP is overextended in a lot of their seats, while, with the exception of Costello, the downstate map can be drawn without regard to incumbents.
Haven’t crunched the numbers for all the seat yet, but my 12th is 53% Kerry and 57% Obama (of the two-party vote). Eyeballing my 15th, I would say that I have a 52% Kerry district there and my Rock Island/Rockford one is also about 52-53%. I chose to draw the vote sinks the way I did partially out of the belief that when it comes to choosing who will get to survive on the other side, Springfield Democrats will privilege seniority (with the exception of Biggert who is just getting eliminated).
that IL Dems will not see the wisdom in strengthening the 12th. Some might have stale illusions about downstate Democratic strength.
Honestly, I will be most happy if they can produce a stable 13-5 map. I think that’s the configuration where the Republicans will be most screwed.