Great news for us, straight from Jon Ralston:
.@rossjmiller “law is very clear….no primary election…how are candidates picked, by people or small group… Open to all candidates.”
What are the chances that Sharron Angle can resist this juicy opportunity? (Update: Another notable tidbit — there will be no filing fee. Also, Ralston reports that Dem state Treasurer Kate Marshall will run in the special.)
UPDATE (David): More here. The GOP unsurprisingly says it may sue. Miller’s formal legal opinion is here (PDF).
that she will run and that she will lose…
Both are nearly sure things…
I’m sending Sharon Angle a personalized thank-you note.
angle is already fundraising
Gosh i hope so. How is Marshall’s replacement chosen, another free-for-all special election later this year?
Maybe the tide is turning on a few fronts.
these were the two Heller vs. Derby campaigns. Dems fielded only minor candidates in 2010 and prior to 2006.
Results for 2006 (open seat):
Jill Derby (D) 44.94%
Dean Heller (R) 50.35%
James Kroshus (IAP) 2.34%
Daniel Rosen (I) 2.37%
Results for 2008:
Jill Derby (D) 41.44%
Dean Heller (R) 51.82%
John Everhart (I) 3.39%
Sean Patrick Morse (Lib) 1.74%
Craig Bergland (Green) 1.6%
Two reasons why I’m posting this:
1) Jill Derby’s had her chance twice. And consider the considerably wider spread in 2008 when Obama beat McCain in Washoe by 25,000 votes and Derby lost the county to Heller by 2,000 votes.
2) Even in her 2008 performance Derby got 41% of the vote. Presuming Kate Marshall will be the only Democrat in the race she should be able to get 40% plus x. If at least two Republicans (Sharron Angle and an establishment candidate) and a right wing independent or and IAP candidate run, the chances of Marshall winning are very high.
I can’t see him playing well in the Reno/Washoe area.
Granted, it was 2010 and her opponent was fairly strong. So let’s say she gets about ~45% of the vote. I think Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron is still strong enough to peel off more than 5%.
If Marshall only gets 40% of the vote, a republican can still win while losing 20% of the republican vote, which is quite plausible. If Kate gets 45% of the vote, that number shrinks to 10%, which is less likely for a Republican to pull off. If she get’s 47% or 48%, that number is 5%, which means that she’s pretty much set.
The percentage that Marshal gets will also be important to the strength that she goes into the 2012 general election with. The new second will probably be more democratic than the current second, but this will still be a tough hold, more so if she squeaks by with, like, 42% of the vote than is she comes close to an outright majority.
for their candidate of choice, outside of Angle. So it will all depend on how much Angle will be able to peel off from the establishment GOP candidate.
Is claiming Derby is running? Is that true? It really stinks if so.
and this is already looking like a huge clusterfuck. We could see a winner with something like 25% of the vote. And there doesn’t appear to be any signature requirement, either, so there could be potentially dozens of candidates on the ballot.
There’s no way the GOP can win with the abysmal field they’ve got. The Democrats have this seat locked down for generations to come.
If Derby runs, game over, take it Republicans.
And no filing fee??? Lizard people are already packing the car and heading for Reno.
We had a shot here with picked candidates, but now it looks aour only shot is two establishment Reps plus Angle facing Marshall and Derby, plus an assortment of teabagger gadflies who do better than the Green gadflies.
I’d like to know how strong that opinion is. Will it hold well in court?
Marshall seems to be an Obama Democrat. Definitely worth it in a district like this one.
and the district is only going to get more Democratic after redistricting.
Provided Jill Derby can be coaxed out of the race or at least isolated to the point of not getting any traction, I really don’t see Republicans unifying behind a candidate enough to hold this one.
I could be wrong…