Eric Eidsness, the Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat who scored 11% of the vote on the third party line against Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2006, has dropped out of the Democratic primary:
“The hand writing is on the wall and I see it is not my time to be elected to national office to represent (Colorado’s 4th Congressional District),” Eidsness said in a prepared statement. “While my populist message appeals to a broad range of voters, particularly in the more rural areas, I do not have the support I will need here in Larimer County to win the Democratic nomination.”
Eidsness’ announcement comes hot on the heels of ’06 Democratic candidate Angie Paccione’s decision to drop out. With Eidsness and Paccione out, the field is now clear for Betsy Markey.
Contrary to what Chris Cillizza may believe, I would not rank Colorado’s 4th in the top ten competitive House races of 2008. Part of that may be the lack of a top tier challenger (it remains to be seen whether Markey can bring the noise, even if she has credible connections), but Musgrave’s chances are helped by her decision to tone down her obsession with socially regressive causes (publicly, at least), and the tilt-red nature of the district (Bush won it by 17 points in 2004). That’s not to say that I don’t think this race will be competitive, or that the potential for a Markey upset isn’t there, but I feel that our clearest shot at this district passed us by last November.
(H/T: ColoradoPols)
I’ve never met Betsy and I certainly wish her my best (and will donate). But I don’t see it. After a certain point, when you’ve taken major shots at an incumbent for now three straight cycles, and she’s survived, and the district strongly favors her party … well, it starts to become pretty much impossible to beat her.
There are plenty of other better opportunities out there for us.
It’s R +9 and she’s an incumbent, so it’s a tough district and if Musgrave were a strong candidate she’d be free and clear at this point. But Musgrave is a weak, slightly nutty candidate and she barely won in 2006 with the help of a 3rd party candidate who siphoned off 11% (!) of the vote and a not terribly strong democratic candidate. In ’04, she barely won with a 3rd party candidate siphoning off 5%.
Our best shot would be when we have our strongest candidate, a united Democratic party, no significant 3rd party candidate, and an unpopular war dragging Musgrave down. Some of those variables are already in place.
While I wouldn’t say this is in our top ten takeover opportunities (MN-3, OH-15, IL-11, AZ-01 being more the flavor of that top tier), Musgrave’s weakness, the strength of the challenger, and the national and CO environments seem to put it in the top 30, don’t you think?
Please let me know your top 30.
And hi again, ColoDem. What’s the latest on the once and future Senator Kerrey?
I would encourage James L to meet Betsy Markey and then see if you think she can (in your words) “make noise”. She has a substantial background in Washington, DC, as an executive and owner of a Fortune 500 company, as the chair of the Larimer County Democrats that turned around the county from being primarily led by Republicans to a very “blue” community, and, last but not least, as the Regional Director Northern Colorado for Senator Salazar.
In the case of her most recent opportunity – Ms. Markey spent much of her time going around the 4th District to assist residents with issues they had with the Federal Government. She met nearly every Mayor and many residents in each town.
It is interesting to ask her what she learned. #1 – no one from Musgrave’s office attempted to come to the person to assist them.
She doesn’t yell and scream. She is a thoughtful, energetic, and progressive women who will be her own self and not a “copy” of others.
But – don’t read this – just first go to her website – http://www.betsymarkey.com and read it – and then find an opportunity to meet her. I believe you will be pleasantly surprised.
ademforyears