With the news of Republican Sen. Pete Domenici’s expected retirement announcement tomorrow morning, let’s take a look at all the rumored candidates on the Democratic side to replace him:
State Attorney General and former 1st Congressional District candidate Patricia Madrid
Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez
US Rep. Tom Udall
Former US Attorney John Kelly
Lt. Governor Diane Denish
Governor and Presidential candidate Bill Richardson
As the Hotline notes, the biggest wildcard here is Richardson. If he wanted to, he could wait until his Prez bid flames out in the early primary states, as New Mexico has a February 8th filing deadline for the Senate race. He would undoubtedly be the favorite in the primary and general. However, how wise (and realistic) is it to wait for a Richardson entry at the 11th hour?
Chavez doesn’t inspire me, for what it’s worth. I cannot forget this cringeworthy article in which he promised that not only would he not run against Domenici, he’d also vote for him. On top of that, his endorsed candidates in this week’s city council elections all lost handily. Ouch.
Jonathan Singer wants Udall. How about you? Who should run? Who will run?
Update: While we’re at it, let’s look at the GOP’s bench in the state: Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Given that Wilson is tarred by the same scandal that dogged Domenici for most of the year, she can no longer be considered a formidable candidate. Given that the GOP bench is pretty much her and Pearce, that’s disastrous. Who else could run for them? Former US Attorney David Iglesias? Or is he too disgusted with DC Republicans to even join their team anymore?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Race Tracker: NM-Sen
Definitely Tom Udall
He starts off with a very strong base in the third district, which I doubt even a moderate Republican would be able to chip at. If it’s a race between Pearce and Udall, Udall completely dominates it (Udall has won his last two races by a 69-31 advantage in 2004, and a 75-25 advantage in 2006, Pearce has only gotten a 60-40 advantage in his last two races). Even if Wilson jumps in, Udall has a much more secure base than her (read: http://www.swingstat…)
I’d be happy with Diane Denish though (I really hope that Martin Chavez or Patricia Madrid don’t run, they both make me cringe)
He would be a more reliable Democratic vote in the Senate than Richardson.
Richardson had a somewhat conservative voting record while representing the 3rd district prior to Udall. Richardson is too likely to be a Gang of 12 type in the Senate.
The Republicans’ only hope would be if Patricia Madrid sets up an exploratory committee.
Richardson’s Presidential bid will flame out and he will either be Secretary of State, or he will finish his term as the governor of New Mexico. Either of these are great for Democrats.
Bill Richardson doesn’t come out as a VP or a Senate candidate in either preferred situation.
Denish will hopefully wait till 2010 and run for Governor. We need to gerrymander those seats, and we need the governor’s mansion to do it, or at the very least protect the districts from being gerrymandered further against us.
I agree that Tom Udall is by far the strongest candidate the Democrats have on the bench for US Senate. He has experience as a legislature, he isn’t a house chair at all (Not giving up a seniority position for his state), he has a solid bank account, and decent name recognition (dominates his district).
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As for the Republicans, we can only hope Pearce runs for Senate, making his district very competitive and Wilson’s corruption continues to hurt her, making all 3 federal seats that are currently Republican in New Mexico, toss-up or leaning dem take over.
Is the best Democratic Candidate.
How about State Auditor Hector Balderas, or Former US Attorney John Kelly. What about the state house leadership? Michael S. Sanchez? I got to admit I don’t know much about New Mexico politicians.
On the GOP side, former Governor Gary Johnson, would he run? I can see him being a formindable candidate if he does.
simultaneously in Colorado and New Mexico. Too bad the media markets don’t overlap — that would be really convenient in a place like NewYorkNewJersey. Maybe we can run Democrats with the same last name against Saxton, Ferguson, LoBiondo, King, Fossella, and Shays. Save money on ads. If they were all named John Hall we could advertise for seven races at once.
Also, it’s too bad Gordon Smith is gonna lose, cause otherwise we’d have three members of that family in the Senate come 2009. I wonder if that’s even a record.
Also, if both Udalls lose and Smith loses, the 2009 Congress might be the first one in like 50 years not to have a Udall in it.
Blast! The first Udall made it to Congress in 1955, but there was a gap between 1990, when Mo Udall retired, and 1996, when Gordon Smith was elected. We’re currently at an all-time high of three Udalls in congress (and one on the 9th circuit), but that looks set to drop in 2008 when Gordo loses. Still, two senators is probably better than one senator and two congressmen.
Final fun fact: Tom and Mark were also elected to the House simultaneously, in the 1998 midterm.
Go Udall!
Definitely Udall. Old Mo will be cheering from the great beyond!
Richardson is not senate material. He should definitely be the next SecState, as I have asserted on other threads. Denish is in line to be the next governor, so, no need for her to get off that track. Chavez and Madrid need to sit this one out. It’s Udall’s time.
I don’t know much about New Mexico politics, but I know enough to keep some distance between her and another Congressional campaign.
What about Mayor Chavez? I see on Joe Monahan’s blog that he had a very rough go of it in the city elections. Would that effect support for a Chavez candidacy? Because Madrid and Chavez were the only names I was hearing much about until now.
I’d think that Richardson will either remain as governor or serve in a Democratic cabinet before running for this seat. He can always run for the Senate in 2012 if he wants (when it’s entirely possible Bingaman will retire).
Seems to be the concensus choice. So I say some of our buddies from NM should start a draft Udall site
Is there any way Gary Johnson would consider running. I know he probably doesn’t have the best relationship with national republicans but I’d also blieve he’d be a stronger candidate than either Wilson or Pearce.
Here. See also Adam Conner’s diary here.
He’s said it over and over. I know people do change their minds, but he’s been pretty clear. And the primary (unstated, but my opinion) reason is that the Udall fundraising machine is pretty taxed this year, what with Mark U and Gordon Smith running statewide. Also, those on this thread who claim that Udall will win “because he is a solid progressive” or whatever have obviously never worked in New Mexico. First of all, Tom is not generally known as a progressive. For one thing, his global warming bill last session so pissed off enviros that I suspect they won’t either give or work for him (though they’ll probably vote for him). For another, New Mexico, though leaning blue now, is NOT a progressive state outside of Santa Fe and Taos. Albuquerque is a 50/50 city (rare these days) with big Repub enclaves and mostly blue collar and/or Latino Dems. The South is as conservative as America gets. Even the North, outside of Santa Fe, is conservative rural Latino (New Mexico and southern Colorado Latinos are VERY different than those in California, Texas or elsewhere, since they’ve been the dominant ethnic group there since the Native Americans were displaced. The whites never owned the place.)
It’s a hard place to win statewide as a Dem if you’re not Latino. Yes, Udall has done it, but look at those past races and you’ll find weak underfunded Repubs. Udall would have a very very tough fight against Heather Wilson OR Pearce. Stacked up against a safe House seat … I dunno.
We want Richardson, and failing that, Diane Denish. After that, I can’t get excited about anyone on the current list (although Martin Heinrich, who is running for CD1, is fantastic and there are others like him). Definitely NOT Chavez. Though he’s Latino, he will get CRUSHED outside of Albquerque because of his corruption and general shiftiness. The liberals would, I promise you, stay home.
… Heather Wilson runs for the Senate, I think Martin Heinrich really needs to replace her, if for no other reason the hotness level of Congress would increase exponentially! I could do things with him that would make an Idaho senator blush 🙂
Are you serious? Are you really telling me that there’s a pool of donors who are cutting checks for both Gordon Smith AND Mark Udall, just for the sake of having Udalls in the Senate, without regard to ideology or partisanship? I mean, I’m not saying it’s impossible, but until you definitively prove that there is a pattern of donations to BOTH Gordon Smith and Mark Udall, I find the idea of an “Udall fundraising machine” to be unlikely.
Udall’s assertion that he wasn’t going to run was assuming Domenici was going to run for re-election. There is a world of difference between running against an established incumbent and running for an open seat.
It’s true that the timing is less than ideal for Richardson. He’d win it in a walk, but chances are a legitimate Democratic candidate will already be raising money and will have locked down support by February when the Presidential race is done.
I don’t know much about the candidates but there is considerable support for Tom Udall clearly. In a vaccuum, I’m against legacy candidates, but he sounds like he has a good record and is an impressive guy.
Wilson seems like the R candidate and she’s legitimate, but she’s not a heavyweight.
Once again ColoDem, you’re both unreasonably pessimistic and your negative views seem based on gut feelings not on facts.
1st contention: Tom U won’t run.
Reality: Albuquerque Tribune 7/23/07: “But so far, party leaders have not talked some of their established stars – people like U.S. Rep Tom Udall of Santa Fe – into making the leap. Udall has not said whether he’s interested.” A quote from today from Mark Udall suggests that Tom may very well run and that there isn’t much concern about the Udall fundraising operation being overtaxed: “Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
2nd Contention: It’s a tough place to win if you’re not hispanic.
Reality: Since the 1930s only one Republican besides Domenici has won a Senate seat in NM and he lost it after one term. Democrats Gov Bruce King, Sen Jeffrey Bingamen, and Sen Clinton Anderson have all been absolutely dominant in NM politics.
Clearly NM politics favors democrats locally and as long as there is a war in Iraq the national environment will also favor Democrats. I very much like Tom Udall’s chances. if another legitimate Democrat runs, he/she should be well positioned to defeat Wilson or Pearce.
Mr. Domenici, good luck in your future life.