Big news out of Alaska: Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore shares a shocking new poll (PDF) with the Swing State Project that shows former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz with an early lead on scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young:
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51%
Don Young (R-inc.): 45.5%
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Wowza. Could we be seeing the continuation of an anti-incumbent wave washing across the Last Frontier, which began with Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski’s landslide primary defeat to Sarah Palin in 2006? With Alaskans growing increasingly frustrated with their representation in Washington, 2008 could be a banner year for change in the state.
Moore’s poll also shows Young with a 49.9% negative rating in the state (43.1% positive and 7% neutral) — something that I do not expect to improve for Young as the ethical and legal morass that is his too-cozy relationship with the overwhelmingly unpopular VECO corporation continues to grow.
Still, Young will be no pushover. He is currently sitting on a massive warchest of over $1.6 million (although some of this is being eaten away by hefty legal fees), he has the state’s Republican tilt in his favor, and he’s held statewide office since Jesus invented the wheel.
There is also the possibility that Young could take one for the team and retire, or that he could fall in a primary to a fresh-faced Republican, such as state Rep. and current challenger Gabrielle LeDoux. In such an event, Berkowitz could find himself twice unlucky: his Lt. Governor bid in 2006 fell short because Republicans had the sense to replace the unpopular Murkowski with the independent-minded Palin.
For now, though, it’s looking like Berkowitz picked the right time to run.
Race Tracker: AK-AL
Suppose he wins in 08. That’ll take a shitload of work, but just skip past that. He then gets to be a Democratic House member from Alaska. He can expect to campaign HARD for at least the 2010 midterm and 2012 presidential cycles, before maybe pulling a John Salazar or Rick Boucher and becoming entrenched. He gets to fly back and forth from DC to Alaska over and over again for four years. Even after that, he’ll still live in an airplane, and he’ll always be at least somewhat vulnerable to shifts in the national mood or any weakness at the top of the Democratic party. If he survives four or five cycles then he’ll start to benefit from the fact that small states prize seniority, but he’s going to have to work his ass off to hold that seat for those first four cycles. And that’s not counting the work involved in unseating the incumbent to begin with.
And I doubt he’s thinking of challenging Murkowski for the Senate seat down the road, which is a much cushier job because you only have to fight for reelection every six years. If he is, that would make more sense, but I don’t think she’s seen as particularly vulnerable lately.
And finally, at-large seats are tougher to hold when you’re off-party than just ordinary districts like Boucher’s and Salazar’s. There’s always gonna be some governor or attorney general from the on-party looking at you. Pomeroy and Herseth have much more difficult positions than Boucher and Salazar, because there’s always going to be a figure like Gov Hoeven or Gov Rounds who can instantly be a top-tier challenger. Even after five or seven cycles, if some governor decides they want to go to the Hill, all your careful entrenchment will not save you from a very very difficult fight. So even after Berkowitz gets four cycles in, he’s still got Sarah Palin breathing down his neck.
I tell ya, given all the work he’s just declared himself willing to do, he’s got my respect.
Rockin. This is great. When Republicans have problems in ALASKA, you know you’re doing something right. The Berkowitz-Young race will create inroads for the Begich-Stevens race if things get worse and Begich jumps in.
I can’t wait to see this race develop.
I wonder if Young will pull a modified DeLay. Young could do a lot of fundraising then drop out of the race and use all of his campaign cash to try and stay out of prison.
You’re really not doing anything right, its more that Don Young is doing something wrong.
There may not be a Berkowitz-Young race until August. And, the odds are about even that neither Bekowitz nor Young will be in that race – after the GOP and Dem primaries, which are months away. Berkowitz is in a three-way – so far – primary with Diane Benson, the Alaska Native woman who came closer to Young in 2006 than anyone had since the Exxon Valdez, and with Jake Metcalfe, immediate past Chairman of the Alaska Democratic Party. Benson is building a strong grassroots organization outside of Anchorage, and Metcalfe and Berkowitz will be competing for the same base.
And Young most likely will not be a candidate, either in the GOP primary or the 2006 General, one way or another.
There is a surprisingly small number of undecideds in this poll.
Moore’s poll would be more authoritative had the publicly released information shown how the other two Democratic primary candidates, Diane Benson and Jake Metcalfe stacked up against Young, or how the three Dems stack up against each other.