According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:
| State | CD | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Kerry ’04 | Bush ’04 | Gore ’00 | Bush ’00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 18 | Ros-Lehtinen | (R) | R+4.3 | 46 | 54 | 43 | 57 |
| FL | 21 | Diaz-Balart, Lincoln | (R) | R+6.2 | 43 | 57 | 42 | 58 |
| FL | 25 | Diaz-Balart, Mario | (R) | R+4.4 | 44 | 56 | 45 | 55 |
It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.
Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.
They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:
Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.
“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.
Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.
As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:
“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.
“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.
Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.
Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.
I think our only hope is to sneak up on the establishment with a BIG congressional victory in 2008. There are too many forces who don’t really want to see a 60-seat Democratic Senate, that they won’t let us creep up on it slowly over several cycles. The media will find some excuse to tear us down, just like they used pretexts to tear down Cheney (the shooter) and Hastert (the pages) because they were seen as problematic for other reasons.
But if we sneak up with 20 more house seats and 7 more senate seats, then the stage will be set for a golden age of legislation like the 1964-1966 congress produced. I lie awake at night and dream of a carbon tax.
Anyway, taking on the Diaz-Balarts? Sure, why the fuck not, sounds great to me!
is to get to the magic 60 or more in the senate and have a good majority of more than 50 seats in the house, assuming some defectors on most every bill. Until such a time happens, there will only be gridlock and preparations for the next election.
The main offensive here should logically be in the senate. The DSCC will be doleing out funding in key races to try it’s damnest to get to 60 or more.
In the house, the DEMS must be completely realistic about where takeovers are possible and where they may actually be forced to protect home turf. A lot of those great wins in 2006 were still narrow wins, and though the incumbent usually has the advantage, the GOP will do it’s utmost to reclaim some of those lost seats, esp. in NH, NY and PA, to a lesser degree in IN. Ohio will be a special case as it is most obviously turning blue, with it’s soon to be 19 electoral votes probably sliding reliably in the DEM column, hopefully as of 2008, but almost assuredly as of 2012 or 2016. Districts like OH-07 are a waste of time for the DEMS; the demographics there make it not worth the money, but districts like OH-12, OH-15, OH-2 and even OH-01 are worth the go. And as soon as Turner retires, OH-03 will go blue again, it is a light blue district which has gone for Turner only because he is really liked on all sides of the fence there. That being said, a military man, young and virile, could win OH-07 for the DEMS, but he would have to be a major top-gun.
More seats in Va may flip than we think, alone because of Warner, who is sure to win and will probably coat-tail the state for HRC.
Where HRC makes surprise wins on election nights, in those states we can expect some pickups. There is a good possibility of winning VA, WV and KY, but of losing CT and NJ. Facit: advantage DEM.
So don’t get too heady about 2008, it’s gonna be a mean fight and if the top-ticket makes screw-ups, it will look bad for the foot-soldiers.
And if you want more wins, don’t just look for progressive candidates. In some districts, only a conservative DEM has an outside chance of winning. And progressives must be willing to support non-progressive DEMS. Either that or reduce the blue-tent to only progressives. Those are the options.
Young looks like he’s on his way out, but do we even have a good challenger ined up yet?
I jsut ran it in my head.
We should have decent shots at FL-08, FL-10, FL-13, FL-15, FL-24
FL-18, FL-21, adn FL-25 are entities upon themselves. Still, the fact that we cold put 8 FLorida districts in play while defending only one of our own is quite good. At least we don’t have to worry about Bill Nelson this time.
If we can get 2-3 of these seats, It should give us some decent momentum going up against Martinez in 2010.
jeffmd,
If you’re going to give specific credit for Florida gerrymandering that benefits the Republicans, credit Mario Diaz-Balart as chairman of the Florida House redistricting committee. Successfully challenging this seat would be sweet revenge.
this means that a net win of 8-10 seats puts the DEMS at around a 50 seat majority in the house. They should target 25 seats to flip, fight like hell to keep the endangered ones they have and forget the rest. Live to fight another day…
I consider FL-10 to be a Dem-leaning seat (it’s D+1), I’m sure once Young steps down we’ll get somebody. There are a few state Reps/Senators, and a Dem County Commisioners in Pinellas.
Of course, what we really need is cleaner districts in Florida. Tampa-St. Pete easily could be made into two Dem-leaning districts with Tampa in one and St. Pete in another. (If we controlled the process, we could even create 3 Dem districts in the area, by drawing some Dem strength in the Tampa Bay area into the currently Sarasota-based 13th).
A Volusia County-based Dem seat is easily feasible, as would an Orlando-based Dem seat. Additionally, reverting FL-05 to re-include Gainesville would restore that to its former Dem-leaning status.
In South Florida, readjusting boundaries would lead to a safer seats for Tim Mahoney (not that I like him) and Ron Klein, while only marginally weakening DWS and Robert Wexler. Alcee Hastings’ district’s boundaries are probably decently fixed, since it’d be subject to the VRA, as would Corrine Brown’s.
But if you think about it, the only solidly completely out of reach Republican districts in Florida are Jeff Miller’s Pensacola-based 1st, Connie Mack’s Ft. Myers-based 14th, and Ander Crenshaw’s Jacksonville-based 4th.
Sadly, we’re not even close to taking back either the Florida House or the Senate, so this remains quite a pipe dream.
As last year’s candidate in FL-25, I know we can win in South Florida.
There’s a lot of animosity toward the incumbents and people are hungry for change. We’re tired of single issue candidates who practically follow Bush blindly.
We want real solutions to the problems we face every day. Roughly a quarter of our population (including 120,000 kids) can’t afford healthcare. The housing bust has hit home and is only getting worse. People are worried about their jobs, how they’re going to pay their bills — especially rent w/ lots of risky mortgages — and insurance rates have gone through the roof. We need relief. And of course, the most important issue is Iraq. It may not be a surprise to me or you, but it’s shocked people locally who have become so used to these single-issue candidates.
With a lot of phone calls and door knocks, we gave an incumbent who’s been in office 20 years the closest race of his career. Now, top-tier candidates can come in and clean up.
I’m not that guy, but I’m going to help. I’m running for a state house seat this year, almost entirely within FL-25 because I know the people and I know their issues — and because Florida Democrats need 19 seats in the next two elections to have a strong voice in redistricting.
With 2-3 new congressional seats on the way, there are tremendous opportunities in Florida. This is the time to go after them — not just to help Democrats, but for the future of all Floridians.
We’re back on the doors, talking to voters. They want change in both Tallahassee and Washington. Last year, we came within less than three points of winning in early voting and less than four points of winning on election day, but we were slaughtered on absentee ballots. Next year, we won’t let that happen. We’re already putting together an absentee ballot campaign for voters in Florida House District 119. That helps us get the change we need in Tallahassee, it helps the candidate in FL-25 make change in Washington, and it helps our presidential candidate take Florida’s 27 electors.
A contribution to our campaign today can help us put our plan in motion. Please visit http://michaelcalder… and help us reboot our government.