In September, we asked you to rank the 2008 Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip party control. Since that time, there have been a number of developments that might shake up your rankings, including:
1. NM-Sen: The retirement of Pete Domenici and the entries of Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, as well as Democrat Martin Chavez, in the race to replace him.
2. VA-Sen: The depression of Rep. Tom Davis, after his party gamed the nomination for unpopular ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore.
3. NH-Sen: The entry of ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
4. NE-Sen: More dithering from Bob Kerrey (who appears to be back in NYC), while ex-Gov. Mike Johanns quit his job in Bush’s cabinet to carry the GOP banner in the race.
5. LA-Sen: Analysts are already beginning to read the tea leaves of last night’s gubernatorial elections in the state. While Jindal had a blowout victory, Mary Landrieu’s brother was re-elected to his Lt. Governor post with 57% of the vote. The Hotline’s Quinn McCord reads the numbers and finds the results to be not so bad for Sen. Landrieu.
Not that I take much stock in his wisdom, but the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza released his rankings of the Senate scene on Friday (previous ranking in parens):
1. Virginia (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Colorado (3)
4. New Mexico (-)
5. Louisiana (4)
6. Oregon (5)
7. Maine (6)
8. Minnesota (8)
9. Alaska (10)
10. Nebraska (7)
What’s your take?
1) Virginia
2) New Hampshire
3) Colorado
4) Louisiana
5) New Mexico
6) Minnesota
7) Oregon
8) Maine
9) Texas
10) Kentucky
Of those, Virginia and NH lean Dem, CO and LA are toss-up, NM through ME lean GOP, and TX and KY are likely GOP.
1. Virginia (Likely Dem)
2. New Hampshire (Lean Dem)
3. Colorado (Tossup-Lean Dem)
4. New Mexico (Tossup/Players still in flux)
5. Minnesota (Toss up)
6. Louisiana* (Tossup-Lean Dem)
7. Oregon (Tossup-Lean GOP)
8. Maine (Lean GOP)
9. Alaska (Lean GOP/Players still in flux)
10. Oklahoma (Lean/Likely GOP – Rice did well on fundraising)
I personally dropped Louisiana a few spots in my rankings based on last night’s elections. Had the GOP won or finished first in Lt. Gov, Atorney General, or Agricultre Commissioner, OR if they had taken control of either branch of the legislature, I’d say Landrieu is done. However, none of that happened. Landrieu looks okay going into 2008.
As much as I want Texas on the list, Noriega’s fundraising is not as impressive as it should be due to the size of the state. Rice’s was much better by comparison.
Merckley has to start raising some dough, or I may be forced to drop his race a few spots.
I’d like to also give a special mention to Kentucky, where players are still very much in flux. Once someone confirms, this may be added to the chart.
1)Virginia- Open Seat- Republicans are uniting behind the unpopular wingnut Jim Gilmore and Democratic nominee is the popular former Governor Mark Warner. (Likely Democratic Takeover.
2)New Hampshire- Blue State in the Northest- Weak Incumbent-John Sununu First Term GOP Senator who was narrowly elected and has a partisan Republican Voting record. Democratic nominee Jean Shaheen is a popular former Governor- Lean Democratic takeover.
3)Colorado- Open Seat- Battleground State- Democratic Nominee Mark Udall is a Progressive from Boulder- Republican Nominee Bob Shafer is a Wingnut from Eastern Colorado. Because 2008 might be a bad year for Democrats at the national level- Udall is likely to win. Slight Democratic Takeover.
4)New Mexico- Open Seat- Battleground State- Republicans have a bitter primary between two weak candidates- Wilson has to deal with the Attorney Scandals and Pearce is too conservative to win in the General elections- On the Democratic side- The nominee has yet to be decided. If Richardson were to enter after Feb 5 Super Tuesday primary assuming he loses the Democratic Presidential nomination and before the Feb 12 Filing Deadline or Udall reconsiders his decision or Denish enters the race- I will rate NM as a lean Democratic Takeover. with Chavez- the only announced candidate- I will rate this as a tossup. Chavez can win if he mends fences with the Progressive wing of the Democratic party once he becomes the nominee.
5)Minnesota- a blue state- Republican nominee is a first term incumbent who was narrowly elected- Democrats have a primary between a famous comedian and a trial lawyer- Polls show the Incumbent polling below 50% and is leading the challengers in the single digits. Coleman’s approval ratings is below 50%. Tossup-
6)Louisiana- red state- Democratic Incumbent Mary Landrieu won her last two races by narrow margins- Post Katrina may face a stronger challenge this time. Tossup= Slight Democratic Retention.
7)Maine- Blue State- Strong Democratic Challenger- Lean Republican retention.
8)Nebraska- Open Seat- Strong Republican Candidate- popular former governor Mike Johanns- Democrats have two strong candidates- Bob Kerrey or Mike Fahey. Lean Republican Retention
9)Oregon- Blue State- Likely Republican Retention
10)Alaska- Weak Republican Incumbent- involved in scandals – Top tier Democratic recruitment- Mike Begich.
1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. New Mexico
5. Minnesota
6. Maine
7. Louisiana
8. Oregon
9. Alaska
10. ???? (Republican seat, just don’t know which)
1-3 = Top Tier
4-8 = Second Tier
9-10 = Third Tier
My take on Landrieu and the 2007 elections… Obviously it didn’t hurt to be a statewide Democrat. Plenty held their own. We had minimal losses for the state legislative races. I don’t doubt Landreiu’s ability to hold her seat, as time goes on it will probably continue to slide down the rankings possibly to a third tier race.
Here are my Senate rankings of most those races most likely to flip:
1. Virgina- where is that one Tom Davis supporter on this site right now?
2. New Hampshire- something dramatic has to happen to change the dynamics of this race
3. Colorado- When this race becomes engaged, Schaffer will be seen as too conservative in this blue-trending state
4. New Mexico- Depends on our candidate, but either NM candidate is better than Schaffer in CO.
5. Louisiana- Regardless of the national system, Landreiu is in trouble here.
6. Maine- Can Allen convince voters that Collins is now Snowe?
7. Minnesota- Coleman’s numbers scream vulnerability
8. Oregon- Merkley’s fundraising was disappointing
9. Nebraska- If we get a real candidate, this might jump up the list
10. Alaska- Begich could make this a toss-up.
Current projection: Democrats gain 4-5 seats
In Louisiana. On the one hand Kennedy is a statewide office holder, winning three statewide offices. On the other hand he also lost two statewide offices, and two of his three victories were unopposed. The big question is whether he was unopposed because he was deemed a powerhouse candidate like Lugar in 2006, or because no one really wanted to be treasurer, or at least not enough to run against an incumbent. Then there’s the fact that treasurer isn’t exactly the type of office people pay a lot of attention to. Ultimately it comes down to partisanship and name recognition. Considering he was unopposed in the last two elections, and he came in third in the 2004 senate race I don’t think he has that much name recognition.
Then there’s the question of his changing parties. How much of his former democratic base will stay with him, instead of going to Landrieu, and how many republicans will be willing to accept him as the nominee, despite both his former party, and his name. (Seriously, it would be like electing George P. Bush as a democratic senator in New York, except Kennedy isn’t related to the Kennedy’s.)
All in all I think he’s an upper top tier candidate at best, and seeing as Louisiana Republicans failed to take either house of the legislature, or the Lite gov. I don’t think the state is realigning towards the republicans quite as fast as people thought. While there is certainly a realignment, it will be years before they get the second senate seat, and the legislature. Plus, now that bobby won, HE HAS TO SOLVE ALL THE PROBLEMS PLAGUING THE STATE.
If Richardson runs- NM moves to number 1 or number 2 on the list. The same thing goes for Udall- Diane Denish, Attorney General Gary King- New Mexico moves to Number 3. (Lean Democratic Takeover.
The worst case scenario is Chavez winning the nomination. I will still bet on the Democratic nominee winning- based on 2008 Being a strong Democratic year- Unpopular war- This can help in a battleground state like NM. Republican Candidates are more worse than Chavez. Chavez can win on a fact that he is a Democrat- and while Chavez is more Conservative than Udall,Denish,Richardson- he won’t be another Zell Miller or Joe Lieberman.
1. VA- Warner is very popular and very wealthy. It’s a lock.
2. NH- No way Sununu wins in this rapidly blueing state
3. CO- Looks like a repeat of CO-Gov. ’06, with an even better candidate
4. NM- Immigration/hispanic vote kills the GOP here
5. OR- Smith is weaker than Dewine was and OR is bluer than OH.
6. MN- Coleman’s win was a fluke, and much to my suprise Franken looks like a very strong challenger.
7. AK- Stevens gets indicted before the end of ’07. Begich could probably beat him anyway after the pummeling he’s taken on corruption.
8. KY- Every liberal group in the country is gunning for McConnell so his financial advantage means a lot less than people assume. Democrats picked up seats here in ’06 and will take the Gov. race as well. KY is NOT part of the deep south. The partisanship that is require of the congressional leadership leaves him very vulnerable to Bush fatigue. The Minority leader is in deep, deep trouble. This race moves up if we can get a stronger candidate.
9. ME- I know this seems counter-intuitive but given Collins chamelion-like moderation and McConnells vulnerbilities I think this race ranks behind KY. Based on a reading of RI-Sen ’06 in which Chafee did better than expected in a bluer state, Collins is going to be difficult to beat.
10. TX- Cornyn is unpopular and Noriega is amazing, but this is Texas (i.e. expensive and red). The DSCC advantage will come in really handy.
Other races:
LA- The GOP missed their best shot in ’02 when they were romping in the rest of the region. If they couldn’t beat Landrieu then (not for lack of trying), with the GOP brand at its peak, they can’t beat her now.
NE- We are looking at a possible massive recruiting failure here. Kerrey’s a flake and Fahey might run scared from “Mighty” Mike Johanns.
OK- Inhofe is a moron with weak approval ratings and a top tier challenger. DSCC advantage could make this a race.
KS- Roberts is the personfication of Iraq intelligence failures and, you know, just plain old intelligence failure. He’s old, comfortable, pretty stupid and KS Dems are on an upswing. With DSCC help (can you imagine the ads we could run about Roberts and WMD), Slattery could pull this out.
NC- Could have been a race, but I don’t think a Dem fundraiser with no campaign experience can pull this off. Jim Neal please prove me wrong.
Possible game changers:
Retirements, I’m guessing at least 2
OK, TN, NC, KS, MS
Indictments
AK
Further recruitment
Maybe some can give me a hand here but off the top of my head Denish, Kerrey, Fahey, Mike Moore, Sebelius, Freudenthal. With the exception of Denish this is probably so much wishful thinking.
What do you want?
1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. New Mexico
5. Minnesota
6. Louisiana
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. Alaska
10. Kentucky
No Republican seriously challenged Mitch Landrieu. To artificially create a standard that this was the race worth watching after-the-fact is very disingenous. I think, downballot-wise, a more telling fact is that Jay Dardenne won by a huge margin and Royal Alexander forced his way into a run-off.
I think there’s a false dichotomy with your choices about why Kennedy was unopposed. There could be several different reasons why no one decided to challenged him.
I think most, if not all Republicans will accept him as the nominee. He was a conservative Democrat and now he’s a full-fledged Republican, and he’s likely to be the only significant Republican in the race. He’ll face a regular primary, due to the change in law, and he’ll likely win, so he won’t have a far-right challenger in a jungle primary. His battle with Landrieu with be a one-on-one matchup; I don’t think he’ll have any troubles with his base.
Make no mistake: Mary Landrieu is vulnerable, and John Kennedy is a top-tier challenger. Comparing his results in the 2004 race is a non-starter. The Democrats were running a three-candidate strategy against Vitter, who was a superior candidate in a GOP year.
Affiliation (House) Members
Democratic Party 42
Republican Party 28
Total 70
Affiliation (Senate) Members
Democratic Party 24
Republican Party 18
Total 42
State politics favor Democrats. They have the majority in both houses of legislature.
If people vote Democrat at a local level, they are more likely to vote Democrat the rest of the way up the ticket.
I meant to add a projection. Currently +6-8. With a 30% chance of running the table and getting to 60.
The Democratic Nominee for the 2006 CO Governors Race Bill Ritter had problems with the liberal base due to his pro life stance. Ritter was not a top tier candidate- Democrats were hoping for Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper to run. Republicans nominate a Republican congressman from a Democratic leaning district Bob Beauprez that ended up losing badly.
Chavez= Ritter and Wilson/Pearce= Beauprez.
Campaign Diaries’s rankings are at http://www.campaigndiaries.com/senaterankings
Like many others, the races are ordered: Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado. Then comes Nebraska!
Although you did a great job rounding it up… Is that without Wilson running in District 1, or Pearce running in District 2, there are some people who might not feel compelled to go out and vote anymore, cutting down on statewide. It’s like Ramstad retiring in Minnesota, it hurts Republicans statewide without him upping Republicans game in that district.
….except I’d rank Louisiana above Colorado and New Mexico and would put South Dakota on the list before Alaska.
As for Mitch Landrieu vs. Mary Landrieu, was Mitch’s Lieutentant Governor position hotly contested or did he have token opposition? I think it’s fair to say that the stakes are higher for Mary’s seat, so the GOP will step up it’s game to take her down compared to what was likely done vs. Mitch.
1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Lousiana
6. Maine
7. New Mexico
8. Oregon
9. Alaska
10. Texas
11. Kentucky
12. Oklahoma
-Nebraska is top 5 with Kerrey, safe GOP without.
I understand it was a rough night for you, but writing off Jindal’s powerhouse performance as “expected” is your talking point now? Really? Mitch Landrieu wasn’t seriously challenged by the Republicans, and in the only other important down-ballot races, the Republicans either won (SoS, Treasurer) or did better than expected (AG).
You can muddle the waters all you like by saying, “Louisiana isn’t turning red as quickly as people anticipate”, artificially raising expectations so you can say that GOP didn’t meet them, but that doesn’t change any of the facts on the ground that make Mary Landrieu extremely vulnerable.
While the argument can be made that Al Franken is a “hollywood” type, he still has roots in Minnesota. Not to mention the fact that they elected Jesse Ventura governor at one point.
Coleman is not popular, he has something like a 48% approval rating, not to mention that polling tends to put Coleman below 50% and it’s not like being 6 points behind an incumbent over a year before the election is a bad place to be for either Franken or Ciresi. That’s not what I’d call any sort of place for Coleman to be in.
http://www.politico….
One could guess.
I bet Diaper Dave stays on, though.
Winning 51% of the vote outright makes Vitter the superior candidate. But thank you for lowering the level of this discussion.
There is no way he would pass up the governors mansion to run against Johnson, he is on record multiple times saying he is not interested in running against Johnson.
I remember when people were saying we’d only pickup four seats in 2006. It’s a double edged blade man.
I’d subdivide it further, but I’ll call them “levels” since “tiers” is already taken.
Almost certain to flip: VA, NH
Likely to flip: CO, NM
Toss-up: MN, LA
in-between toss-up and likely held: AK, KY, SD
Likely to be held: OK, TX, WY-Barrasso, NJ, MT, NC, AR, GA, ME
Almost certain to be held: ID (sigh, I got my hopes up for a while), SC, KS, WY-Enzi, WV, DE, IL, IA, MA, MI, RI, AL
I can’t place Oregon, Mississippi, and Tennessee since I don’t know enough about the races. Nebraska depends solely on who enters. Get over there, Kerrey!
Thus, I predict most likely a 4-7 seat gain for the Democrats. If things work out well, we could also see a seat gains in NE, OR, TN, and a few of the “likely to held” seats.
Of course, there’s this list, and then there’s the list of seats I’d really love to see the Democrats take–which includes OK, TX, WY-Barrasso, GA, AK, KY, NM, and VA, and ID.
See: Conrad Burns.
I don’t think that Kennedy’s strength is simply being a Republican. I think Kennedy’s strength is that he can pull a lot of the conservative Democratic vote, which is a significant portion of Democrats in Louisiana. People aren’t usually willing to dump their Senator for an unknown; John Kennedy is not an unknown.
You should work in political advertisement. You can take someone’s simple statement and make it mean anything you want.
With an MoE of 4%, Franken was behind 5 points, and Ciresi was behind by 4 points. Both within the margin of error.
Considering how little known they are, they are doing great. And it isn’t really touting Coleman’s reelection odds at all.
If over 60% of the voters voted for a Democrat in the primary.
I mean, that’s like saying the Republican has a chance to win in Louisiana when 100 Democrats ran for the same office splitting +60% the vote equally. Obviously the Republican won the primary, but he stands little chance in the general.
While these areas are growing and are the main supports of Republicans in the state generally, these areas are also where MN has made most of their gains in the state house and senate. They voted for Pawlenty by a healthy margin but at the local level, this is where most of our gains were made. I think a good candidate can neutralize this advantage. Ramstad’s district (his district is the rich rich suburbs) voted for Pawlenty by I think like an 8% margin but also voted for Klobuchar around that same margin.
Although, Mark Kennedy is no Coleman. Kennedy is much, much more conservative and doesnt have a way with people as Coleman does.
1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. New Mexico
5. Minnesota
6. Louisiana
7. Maine
8. Oregon
9. Kentucky
10. Texas
Alaska and Nebraska enter if Begich and Kerrey run.
But still relating to Senate races: Jim Neal the democrat running for Senate in North Carolina recently came out as openly gay. I’m sure this probably doesn’t help his chances in the South, but who knows. I’ve seen stranger things before. lol
1. Virginia (Lean Takeover): Really nothing to say here that hasn’t been said before. I do want to point out that I had been at loathe to call races as takeovers this far out, but the chances of Gilmore winning at this point are only slightly better than the chances of Tom Harkin announcing that he’s a space alien from Jupiter, then winning by 20%.
2. New Hampshire (Tossup): I think that Sununu could still make this competitive if he tries to redirect the debate to the economic conservatism that made New Hampshire a red state once upon a time, but that window is closing.
3. Colorado (Tossup): It’s easy (and probably accurate) to look at Schaeffer as a bumbling idiot, but apparently Coloradans don’t agree, because his poll numbers and fundraising remain competitive with Udall’s. Underestimating Schaffer is only going to make him a senator.
4. New Mexico (Lean Rep): You have to give this race the slightest edge to the Republicans, especially with prospective nominee Chavez. Chavez proving stronger than assumed or a better nominee would throw this into the tossup category where it belongs.
5. Minnesota (Lean Rep): For as much noise as conservative pundits make about the ridiculousness of Franken’s candidacy, why can’t Coleman get above 50% when polled against him?
6. Louisiana (Lean Dem): I don’t buy either argument on here that last night was an indication that Landrieu was likely safe or that it still showed her extremely vulnerable. I dropped this to a lean Dem from a toss-up last time around because last night wasn’t a total massacre and her fundraising is pretty strong. I’m not moving her to likely Rep because even with all those candidates throw at him, Jindal made it well over 50%.
7. Maine (Lean Rep): Tom Allen is a great candidate, but Susan Collins is not stupid. One of her biggest problems is that she really can’t call for outside help, because if she’s tied to closely to the neo-con establishment, she’s history.
8. Oregon (Lean Rep): I really don’t think that this race is as open and closed as people say it is, Smith knows damn well what he has to do to get reelected and Merkley’s fundraising just isn’t where it needs to be. Still, the R after Smith’s name alone could be his undoing.
9. Alaska (Likely Rep): Its seems like Alaska voters finally want to bring a stop to Stevens’ gravy train of corrupt. But the question is, will Stevens stick around to fight the possibly uphill battle, or will we see this race drop off our radar because he steps aside for some new blood?
10. Texas (Likely Rep): Cornyn is vulnerable and Noriega is full of potential, but can Noriega get the money to mount the offensive that he’ll need to mount?
SD, AR, & NJ (if Giuliani is the nominee) are Likely Dems. AK & TX are joined by NE, KY, NC, & OK, as Likely Reps.
I lived in North Carolina for a year. If I had to guess this probably destroys his chances there. Maybe in a couple years you might be able to sell the good ole’ boys on civil unions, but the idea of any further advancement of gay rights there at the moment is a pipe dream, one that will cost us a winnable seat.
Lean Takeover
1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
Toss-Up
3. Colorado
4. New Mexico
Lean Retention
5. Minnesota
6. Louisiana (the Dems there may have overperformed expectations, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Landrieu will do the same next year. The biggest reason is that turnout is much higher in presidential elections than off-year elections.)
7. Oregon
8. Maine
Likely Retention
9. Nebraska (if Kerrey jumps in this will move to “lean” or “toss-up”)
10. Alaska (ditto if Begich jumps in)
11. Oklahoma
12. Kentucky
13. New Jersey
14. Texas
15. North Carolina
16. South Dakota
17. Arkansas (when it is certain Huckabee will not challenge Pryor this will move to “solid retention”)
Solid Retention
Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (no Dem has won a Senate seat here since 1974, so I am not hopeful about a competitive race here), Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Rhode Island, Tennessee, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming (both)