Just in case you’re not a Kossack:
“Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Susan Collins, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Collins?
Reelect 55
Consider 20
Replace 21
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?
Collins (R) 56
Allen (D) 33″
Source: http://www.dailykos….
Ouch. For comparison sake, even Noriega seems to be doing better, and apparently has more room to grow to boot.
So what does this mean for ME-SEN? Are our dreams of a Sen. Allen about as likely to happen as Alabama electing Sen. Davis-Figures, or does Allen have room to close the gap? If nothing else, it’s certainly a wake-up call.
If only I had typed less, I would’ve beat you to posting this.
It’s the hardest of the red senators in blue states(New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota and Maine) but I still think it is possible. Lincoln Chaffee was much more to the left (anti-war, pro-gay marriage, pro-choice etc) then Susan Collins but Allen does have a lot of work to do.
. . . an uphill battle. We’ve got a few factors in our favor– the fact that it’s a presidential year, and that Collins’ record on the Iraq war is much further to the right than that of her senate colleague, the popular Olympia Snowe. On the other hand, the Collins camp has the advantage of an easy relationship with the press (exemplified most vividly by the fact that two campaign reporters for the Bangor paper were married to GOP staffers working for Collins’ campaign!) Furthermore, Collins, while not as well-liked as Snowe, remains popular throughout the state, and many voters won’t be looking at the candidates on an issue-by-issue basis (and, thus, will not be familiar with the specific votes she cast in favor of continuing the war). So, it’s going to be tough. Some of us may well have been overly optimistic. I personally think this could be a winnable race, but we won’t win it in a walk. There is much, much work to be done in the Pine Tree State, so we have to stop projecting and start putting in some elbow grease. I’m ready!
I keep thinking that this cycle in the senate looks kinda similar to 2000 – several targets in blue states. Then you had Cantwell and Stabenow essentially coming from behind to defeat GOP incumbents thanks in no small part to presidential coattails. Hopefully lightening strikes twice in Maine, Minnesota and Oregon.
Considerring Maine has gone blue at the presidential level since 1992 & Allen is a very popular member of the House, I would expect Collins lead to be about 10% at this time in the race. However, 22%, that is a shocker. In 2002, in a much better year for the GOP, Collins beat a weaker candidate (Pingree) by 18%. Looks like Allen will need to go negative to close this race… it is just a matter of when.
Allen is the Democrats candidate of choice, if he does not make this a race, Maine may be stuck with Snowe & Collins as senators for a long time because Collins is only 54 & Snowe is only 60.
Since Allen’s district is where most of the people live, it’s not very reassuring that he’s not polling very well. Let the DSCC use their huge piggy bank to get some ads up on the air, and we’ll see those numbers shift around… hopefully.