For the first time in ages, there may be a relatively competitive election. I’m going to discuss it here.
Parliament of Singapore
Singapore operates under the Westminister system, with a unicameral legislature comprising of 84 MPs. Additionally, there are provisions for NCMPs (Non-Constituency MPs), who are selected from the best-performing losers, and NMPs (Nominated MPs), who are nominated to represent independent views. The former was introduced to provide greater opposition representation in Parliament, but both are not able to vote on constitutional amendments or matters of confidence. A 2/3rds majority of MPs is required to amend the Constitution, but the PAP has always held this majority since the 60s.
Currently, 82 MPs are from the ruling PAP (People’s Action Party), 1 MP is from the WP (Workers’ Party), and 1 is from the Singapore People’s Party (SPP). Interestingly enough, one minister has argued that this situation is normal in small jurisdictions, citing the dominance of Democrats in cities such as NYC and Chicago.
Electoral System
Singapore operates under the first-past-the-post system. However, constituencies are either GRCs (Group Representation Constituencies) or SMCs (Single Member Constituencies).
The former, comprising 4 to 6 members, were introduced, officially, to promote minority representation in Parliament, but has the effect of raising the barriers to entry for opposition groups. (To digress, the implementation of VRA-style minority districts is not viewed as a viable solution as the PAP’s objective has been to prevent the creation of minority enclaves). The NCMP scheme mentioned above has also been criticized as a means of diluting the voter desire for a stronger opposition voice in Parliament.
Political parties
The dominant political party here is the PAP, which has been ruling Singapore ever since 1959. The most credible opposition parties are usually the WP and the SPP. Additionally, there are various other parties such as the SDP (Singapore Democratic Party) and the NSP (National Solidarity Party). In public discourse, all opposition parties are generally grouped under the “opposition”.
State of Play
SMCs are generally considered to be more lucrative opposition targets, as assembling a well-qualified group to take on the PAP in a GRC is considered more difficult. Both opposition-held seats are SMCs. The GRC where the opposition had its best showing in 2006 (the last election) was won the PAP with 56.1% of the vote against the WP, well illustrating the difficulty of the opposition winning a GRC.
This year, however, a larger and better-qualified group of candidates (Singapore is very conscious of educational qualifications) has joined the opposition, so this election is likely to be more competitive. Further, while the traditional media is generally considered a PAP stronghold, as it were, the advent of “new media” is much more critical of the PAP and is viewed with hope by the opposition.
Issues
The current debate is mainly about economic policy, with income inequality, increasing competition from immigrants, and cost of living issues (especially housing and car prices)being the issues on which the opposition hopes to capitalize. Immigration, as usual, is a particularly emotive issue, especially since the immigrant population in Singapore has increased rapidly in the last decade.
The PAP tends to advocate an open-door immigration policy, and has traditionally been reluctant to provide unemployment benefits and to legislate a minimum wage (both are seen as being harmful to economic growth). In recent times, however, there has been a move towards somewhat greater income redistribution. Seeing as 80% of Singaporeans live in public housing, the cost of public housing is also a major issue. Related to this is the PAP’s use of the “carrot” of upgrading of housing estates as an electoral tool (estates in opposition-held constituencies are denied upgrading priority).
There has been no major discussion on social issues, given that Singapore remains an overwhelmingly conservative society. Abortion, for instance, was only legalized as a means of reducing the birth rate back in the 70s, and homosexual activity remains illegal.
Given that Singapore is a city-state, issues under the remit of local government in the US are also potentially potent electoral issues.
The lack of opposition voices in Parliament is also an issue on which opposition parties hope to make gains.
Election Day
It’s May 7! I can’t think of anything else to say at the moment, discussion is welcome.