Author: ChadInFL

It’s practically a guarantee that Democrats in the House and Senate will see big gains come Tuesday.  This could give us our biggest majorities in decades.  So it begs the question, how far do we need to go back to find a congressional majority this big?

Current House breakdown:

236D/199R

The last Dem majority was in 1992, so starting there and working our way back here are the prior Democratic House majorities.

1992 – 259D/176R

A pickup of 23 seats is needed to equal this majority.

1990 – 268D/167R

A pickup of 32 seats is needed.

1982 – 269D/166R

A pickup of 33 seats is needed.

1978 – 277D/158R

A pickup of 41 seats is needed.

1976 – 292D/143R

A pickup of 56 seats is needed.

Making my prediction I’ll say our House majority after this election will look a lot like our 1990 or 1982 majorities.  Though it could get as high as our 1978 majority.

As far as the senate goes, it appears that our new majority will our largest since at least 1978 when we held 58 seats and could get close to our 1976 majority of 61 seats.

http://www.centerforpolitics.o…

Presidential Race:

Obama –  364 EV

McCain – 174 EV

Senate:

Dem gains of 7-8 Seats

Dem Pickups – AK, CO, NH, NM, NC, OR, VA

Rep Pickups – None

Projected Run-off – GA

House:

Dem Gains of 25-35 Seats

Democratic Pick-up (29)  

AK-AL (Young)  

AZ-01 (OPEN)  

CA-04 (OPEN)  

CO-04 (Musgrave)  

CT-04 (Shays)  

FL-08 (Keller)  

FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)  

FL-24 (Feeney)  

IL-10 (Kirk)  

IL-11 (OPEN)  

KY-02 (OPEN)  

MI-07 (Walberg)  

MI-09 (Knollenberg)  

MN-03 (OPEN)  

MN-06 (Bachmann)  

NC-08 (Hayes)  

NJ-03 (OPEN)  

NM-01 (OPEN)  

NM-02 (OPEN)  

NV-03 (Porter)  

NY-13 (OPEN)  

NY-25 (OPEN)  

NY-26 (OPEN)  

NY-29 (Kuhl)  

OH-15 (OPEN)  

OH-16 (OPEN)  

PA-03 (English)  

VA-11 (OPEN)  

WA-08 (Reichert)

Republican Pick-up (3)

TX-22 (Lampson)    

PA-11 (Kanjorski)    

FL-16 (Mahoney)  

Dem Races Too Close To Call (9)

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)  

ID-01 (Sali)

IN-03 (Souder)  

LA-04 (OPEN)

MD-01 (OPEN)  

NE-02 (Terry)

NJ-07 (OPEN)

OH-01 (Chabot)

WY-AL (OPEN)

Governorships:

No Gain to Dem gain of 1

Dem Pickups – MO

Rep Pickups – None

Pick TBA Monday – NC

Everyone knows by now that we’re going to gain anywhere between a half dozen and a dozen Senate seats this year.  But exactly how progressive will these new Senators be?  I decided to rank them in order of how progressive I think each Senator will be in the 11 races that I see us having a legitimate shot at picking up.

1. Franken (MN) – He seems like the obvious pick for most liberal.  Maybe I’m wrong but I cannot think of anything he’s not very liberal on.

2. Merkley (OR) – I don’t know a ton about him, but from what I’ve read in Sky’s posts and his record in the OR legislature he sounds like a rock solid progressive.

3. Tom Udall (NM) – He and his brother have very similar voting records of being mostly progressive, but I think Tom will end up being slightly to the left of his brother since NM is a bit left of Colorado and I doubt he’ll feel the need to be very moderate after his imminent landslide victory over Pearce.

4. Mark Udall (CO)

5. Shaheen (NH) – Sounds like she’ll be solidly liberal on social issues and somewhat moderate on social ones.  A good fit for NH.

6. Hagen (NC) – She sounds like she’ll be a good Senator, but I imagine she’ll be somewhat moderate knowing that NC is still a somewhat conservative state.  

7. Warner (VA) – He governed VA very successfully as a moderate.  He’ll probably vote that way in the Senate.

8. Begich (AK) – I honestly don’t know a lot about his views.  I’m putting him in this spot because it’s where I think he needs to be in order to get re-elected in a state like AK.  Alaska seems to be economically conservative, socially libertarian so I’d guess that’s where he’ll be in the Senate.

9. Martin (GA) – His views sound surprisingly  liberal for Georgia, but he’ll probably be more of a centrist if elected.  He’ll have to in a state like GA.

10. Lunsford (KY) – Sounds socially conservative and populist.  Sounds like he’ll be similar to Ben Nelson in the Senate.  I can live with that.

11. Musgrove (MS) – Socially like a very socially conservative southern populist.  Probably the most conservative Dem in the Senate if elected.

What do you think?  Do these rankings sound about right?

Breaking News

A jury has found Sen. Ted Stevens guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate disclosure forms.

Cnn.com

Hello Senator Begich!

http://www.scribd.com/doc/7497…

Rank key:

5.) Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events

4.) Leaning Democrat, expect to lose most of these seats unless there’s serious change

3.) True toss-up, slight wing could push either way, environment is critical to these races

2.) Leaning Republican, if there’s a wave, some could be in trouble

1.) Should be ok but if there’s a wave, we could see a surprise.

Rank: 5

AK-AL, Don Young

AZ-01, Open

IL-11, Open

NJ-03, Open

NJ-07, Open

NY-13, Open

NY-25, Open

VA-11, Open

FL-24, Feeney

NY-29, Kuhl

MI-07, Walbert

Rank: 4

MD-01, Open

NM-01, Open

OH-16, Open

CA-04, Open

NC-08, Hayes

CO-04, Musgrave

MI-09, Knollenberg

Rank: 3

CT-04, Shays

IL-10, Kirk

LA-04, Open

MN-03, Open

MO-06, Barnes

NM-02, Open

NV-03, Porter

NY-26, Open

OH-15, Open

WA-08, Reichert

MO-09, Open

OH-01, Chabot

PA-03, English

MN-06, Bachmann

WY-AL, Open

AL-02, Open

Rank: 2

CA-50, Bilbray

FL-08, Keller

FL-13, Buchanan

FL-21, Diaz-Balart

FL-25, Diaz-Balart

IL-06, Roskam

OH-02, Schmidt

PA-06, Gerlach

ID-01, Sali

VA-02, Drake

AZ-03, Shadegg

VA-05, Goode

TX-10, McCaul

NJ-05, Garrett

NE-02, Terry

KY-02, Open

NV-02, Heller

Rank: 1

FL-15, Open

IL-18, Open

PA-18, Murphy

TX-07, Culberson

VA-10, Wolf

OH-07, Open

As for Democratic seats:

Rank: 5

FL-16, Mahoney

Rank: 4

None

Rank: 3

AL-05, Open

NH-01, Shea-Porter

PA-10, Carney

TX-22, Lampson

Rank: 2

GA-08, Marshall

WI-08, Kagen

AZ-05, Mitchell

LA-06, Cazayoux

MS-01, Childers

OR-05, Open

PA-11, Kanjorski

KS-02, Boyda

Rank: 1

IN-09, Hill

AZ-08, Giffords

CA-11, McNerney

IL-14, Foster

KY-03, Yarmuth

PA-04, Altimre

 

HAHA.  When it rains it pours.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

Former Bush aide voting for Obama

(CNN) – Scott McClellan, the former White House press secretary who sharply criticized President Bush in his memoir last spring, told CNN Thursday he’s voting for Barack Obama.

“From the very beginning I have said I am going to support the candidate that has the best chance for changing the way Washington works and getting things done and I will be voting for Barack Obama and clapping,” McClellan told new CNN Host D.L. Hughley

McClellan, a onetime Bush loyalist whose scathing critique of the president sent shock waves across Washington last spring, has long hinted he was leaning toward the Illinois senator.

“It’s a message that is very similar to the one that Gov. Bush ran on in 2000,” McClellan said in May about Obama’s campaign.

McClellan isn’t the first member of Bush’s inner circle to express support for Obama. In 2007, former Bush strategist Matt Dowd also said he had become disillusioned with the president and said Obama was the only candidate that appealed to him.

The full interview will air on D.L. Hugley’s new show, D.L. Hughley Breaks the News, Saturday at 10 p.m. ET. McClellan is also a guest of Larry King Live Friday at 9 p.m. ET.

All but two moves ME-SEN and FL-16 are in our favor.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/r…

MAINE | Senate: Lean Republican to Likely Republican  

WYOMING | District AL: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

WEST VIRGINIA | District 2: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

SOUTH CAROLINA | District 1: Likely Republican to Lean Republican  

NORTH CAROLINA | District 5: Solid Republican to Likely Republican  

NEW MEXICO | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Democrat

NEW JERSEY | District 3: Toss Up to Lean Democrat

MINNESOTA | District 3: Toss Up to Lean Democrat  

ILLINOIS | District 10: Lean Republican to Toss

IDAHO | District 1: Lean Republican to Toss Up

FLORIDA | District 18: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FLORIDA | District 16: Lean Republican to Likely Republican

ALABAMA | District 3: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Here’s a snipet of the story

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics…

Palin charged state for children’s travel, later amended expense reports

Gov. Sarah Palin charged the state for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited, and later amended expense reports to specify that they were on official business.

The charges included costs for hotel and commercial flights for three daughters to join Palin to watch their father in a snowmobile race, and a trip to New York, where the governor attended a five-hour conference and stayed with 17-year-old Bristol for five days and four nights in a luxury hotel.

In all, Palin has charged the state $21,012 for her three daughters’ 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights since she took office in December 2006. In some other cases, she has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls.

Alaska law does not specifically address expenses for a governor’s children. The law allows for payment of expenses for anyone conducting official state business.

There are two major newspapers that encompass Florida’s 24th district.  The smaller of the two is my hometown Daytona News-Journal which is read mostly in Volusia, Brevard and Seminole counties and is known for having a strong left-lean.  The other is the larger circulation Orlando Sentinal, traditionally a right-leaning paper, but becoming more centrist as central FL is shifting leftward.  

http://www.orlandosentinel.com…

Suzanne Kosmas had been endorsed by BOTH papers.  Obama has also been endorsed by both papers. Very good news for Kosmas and Obama.