Author: Conniver

I know some people keep an election sheet of all the federal elections on SSP. I created one back in May during  some of my more boring finance classes.(Accounting and Banking suck but I got an A in both while doing this so I can’t complain) It took me a lot of time to load all the information into it and get it to become the reference sheet I wanted for the Senate, House, and Presidential election. But in the end I think it came out pretty well.

However, I am aware that a lot of people don’t have the time to make one but would like an easy way to keep track of all the races and make informed predictions off of. This sheet I think is a simple and easy way to compare data between districts as well as polling fund raiding and demographic differences.

So I am offering my personal sheet to anyone who wants it.

Its simple to modify and easy to update, I use realclearpolitics.com for the polling numbers, and opensecrets.org for the fund raising numbers and use the most current polling available by an independent pollster.(with the exception of Zogby, and ARG who I think are awful pollsters) I use internal polls for some congressional races, as alot of times their are not any independent numbers, so take them with a grain of salt.

The Fundraising numbers are their current cash on hand totals.

The demographic numbers are taken from the wikipedia which are from the 2000 census.

The districts and states under each category are my opinions of the races which are quite more bullish then most people. However you can easily modify this by copy pasting it into the category you feel it belongs in.

It’s a pretty comprehensive list of the offense we will be playing this year and potential races that could become competitive.

I use Excel 2007, so people using earlier versions will have to change some of the colors. (I converted it to 2002 on my laptop and it turns green and orange to yellow for some reason, as well as the shades of red and blue I use “I use light: Blue/Red for challengers and Dark:Red/Blue for incumbents” are all converted to one shade of blue and red) I also use light blue and light red for Obama and McCain presidential race and dark red and dark blue for the 2004 race.

I haven’t converted it to 2002 since I uploaded the demographics so I have no idea how it will change the colors of each of the racial demographics. So change them how you see fit. (I use tan for white, Black for AA, yellow for Asian, brown for hispanic, purple for other red for native americans and green for median income)

Anywhere you see yellow on the excel sheet in 2002 is actually green so convert at your will.

However the changes are cosmetic and do not effect the numeric totals, so you can modify it on 2002 to reflect my color methodology or leave it or change it to any color you want,up to you.

So here it is: http://rapidshare.com/files/12…

http://www.uploading.com/files…

rapidshare is easy to download from, just hit download for free and work your way through.

uploading.com is another easy site one of the two should work.

If anyone has any questions just leave it in the comments here.

Enjoy,

Conniver

I’ve been going through the Federal Races and have been deciding on my opinion on each of the races.

I did this by myself last cycle and did fairly well.

I had the democrats winning back the house and Senate. 32 seats in the house and 51 seats in the Senate.

I predicted the house correctly with the exception of Maffei, Madrid, Massa, and Duckworth who I had winning and Boyda and Shea Porter losing.

I also had the Senate Victories correct with the exception of Virgina and Tennessee. I had Harold Ford Jr. winning and Jim Webb losing.

I also had us winning those 3 special elections in 2008.

In my own personal sheet that I have been doing for 2008, I had before revision a 29 seat pickup for the Democrats in the House and a 7 Seat pickup in the Senate and a 308-230 Obama victory. After revising my lists today, I have expanded my victories to a level I honestly never thought was possible before. However after going through each one of these races I believe you can defend each and everyone of them.

I currently have a 37 seat pickup for the democrats with 4 congressional loses and 41 wins. And a 9 Seat pickup for Democrats in the Senate. With an Obama Victory of 311-227 victory.

This isn’t really done on raw numbers but more on my feel for the national mood and my predictions of how the general election will unfold. My list will no doubt change a lot in the next few months (especially when he picks a VP) however this is what I believe would happen if events fold out in the next few months as I think. Namely an Obama Thumping of John McCain.

 

These are the Races which I consider Democratic victories if I Extrapolate my predicted outcomes in the general (National mood, state, and outlook towards the Presidential Race):

1) Alabama 2nd Congressional  Open (Everett) Bobby Bright

2) Alaska At-Large Congressional Don Young (contested primary) Ethan Berkowitz

3) Arizona 1st Congressional Open (Renzi) Ann Kirkpatrick

4) California 4th Congressional Open (Doolittle) Charlie Brown

5) California 26th Congressional David Dreier Russ Warner

6) Colorado 4th Congressional Maryiln Musgrave Besty Markey

7) Conneticut 4th Congressional Chris Shays Jim Himes

8) Florida 13th Congressional Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings

9) Florida 21st Congressional Lincoln Diaz-Balart Raul Martinez

10) Florida 24th Congressional Tom Feeney Suzanne Kosmas

11) Idaho 2nd Congressional Bill Sali Walter Minnick

12) Illinois 10th Congressional Mark Kirk Dan Seals

13) Illinois 11th Congressional Open (Weller) Debbie Halvorson

14) Illinois 18th Congressional Open (LaHood) Colleen Callahan

15) Michigan 7th Congressional Tim Walberg Mark Schauer

16) Michigan 9th Congressional Joe Knollenberg Gary Peters

17) Minnesota 2nd Congressional John Kline Steve Sarvi

18) Minnesota 3rd Congressional Open (Ramstead) Ashwin Madia

19) Missouri 6th Congressional Sam Graves Kay Barnes

20) Missouri 9th Congressional Open (Hulshof) TBA

21) Nebraska 2nd Congressional Lee Terry Jim Esch

22) Nevada 2nd Congressional Dean Heller Jill Derby

23) Nevada 3rd Congressional Jon Porter Dina Titus

24) New Jersey 3rd Congressional Open (Saxton) John Alder

25) New Jersey 5th Congressional Scott Garrett Dennis Shulman

26) New Jersey 7th Congressional Open (Ferguson) Linda Stender

27) New Meixco 1st Congressional Open (Wilson) Martin Heinrich

28) New Mexico 2nd Congressional Open (Pearce) Harry Teague

29) New York 13th Congressional Open (Fossella) Mike McMahon

30) New York 25th Congressional Open (Walsh) Dan Maffei

31) New York 26th Congressional Open (Reynolds) Jon Powers

32) New York 29th Congressional Randy Kuhl Eric Massa

33) North Carolina 8th Congressional Robin Hayes Larry Kissell

34) Ohio 1st Congressional Steve Chabot Steve Driehaus

35) Ohio 2nd Congressional Jean Schmidt(I had mean Jean winning last time I think Obama helps Wulsin enough to get the win) Victoria Wulsin

36) Ohio 15th Congressional Open (Pryce) Mary Jo Killroy

37) Ohio 16th Congressional Open (Regula) John Boccieri

38) Virginia 2nd Congressional Thelma Drake Glenn Nye

39) Virginia 11th Congressional Open (Davis) TBA

40) Washington 8th Congressional Dave Reichert Darcy Burner

41) Wyoming At Large Congressional Open (Cubin) Gary Trauner

Races to watch:

1) Arizona 3rd Congressional John Shadegg Bob Lord

2) California 42nd Congressional Gary Miller Ed Chau

3) California 46th Congressional Dana Rohrabacher Debbie Cook

4) Florida 8th Congressional Ric Keller Charlie Stuart

5) Florida 9th Congressional Gus Bilarakis Bill Mitchell

6) Florida 18th Congressional Illeana Ros-Lehtinen Annette Taddeo

7) Florida 25th Congressional Mario Diaz-Balart Joe Garcia

8) Illinois 6th Congressional Peter Roskam Jill Morganthaler

9) Illinois 13th Congressional Judy Biggert Scott Harper

10) Illinois 15th Congressional Tim Johnson Steve Cox

11)  Minnesota 6th Congressional Michele Bachmann Elwiyn Tinklenberg

12) Ohio 14th Congressional Steve Latourette Bill O’Neil

13) Pennslyvania 15th Congressional Charlie Dent Sam Bennett

14) South Carolina 2nd Congressional Joe Wilson Rob Miller

15) Texas 10th Congressional Michael McCAul Larry Doherty

16) Texas 7th Congressional John Culberson Michael Skelly

17) Virginia 5th Congressional Virgil Goode Tom Perriello

18) West Virginia 2nd Congressional Shelly Capito Anne Barth

19) Maryland 1st Congressional Open (Gilchrest) Frank Kratovil

Democratic Loses:

1) Florida 16th Congressional Tim Mahoney (Don’t know his opponent is but he barely beat Negron with Mark Foley’s name on the ballot)

2) Kentucky 3rd Congressional John Yarmuth Anne Northup

3) Pennslyvania 10th Congressional Chris Carney Chris Hackett

4) Texas 22nd Congressional Nick Lampson Pete Olson

Potential Democratic Loses

1) Alabama 5th Congressional Open (Cramer) Parker Griffith

2) Arizona 8th Congressional Giffords Randy Graff

3) California 11th Congressional McNerney Dean Andel

4) Kansas 2nd Congressional Boyda Jim Ryun

5) New Hampshire 1st Congressional Shea-Porter Jeff Bradley

6) Oregon 5th Congressional Open (Hooley) Kurt Schrader

Overall Dem +37

111th Congress

Democrats  273

Republicans 162

62.75% controlled by Dems

Maximum Dem Gain Scenario

Overall Dem +60

111th Congress

Democrats 296

Republicans 139

68.05% controlled by Dems

Senatorial

Democratic Pickups

1) Virgina Open (Warner) Warner

2) New Mexico Open (Dominici) Udall

3) New Hampshire Sunnunu Sheehan

4) Colorado Open (Allard) Udall

5) Alaska Stevens Begich

6) Minnesota Coleman Franken

7) North Carolina Dole Hagan

8) Mississippi Wicker Musgrove

9) Oregon Smith Merkley

Potential Democratic Pickups

1)  Maine Collins Allen

2) Kentucky McConnell Lunsford

3) Texas Cornyn Noreiga

4) Nebraska Open(Hagel) Klebb

5) Kansas Roberts Slattery

Potential Democratic Loses

1) Louisiana Landreui Kennedy

Overall Democrat +9

111th Congress

Democrats 60

Republicans 40

Filibuster Proof Majority

60% Dem Controlled

Maximum Dem Gain Scenario

Overall Democrat +14

111th Congress

Democrats 65

Republicans 35

65% Dem Controlled

Presidential

State Obama McCain Electoral Votes

California Dem 55

Texas** Rep 34

New York Dem 31

Florida* Rep 27

Illinois Dem 21

Pennsylvania* Dem 21

Ohio* Dem 20

Michigan* Dem 17

Georgia** Rep 15

North Carolina* Rep 15

New Jersey** Dem 15

Virginia* Dem 13

Massachusetts Dem 12

Washington Dem 11

Indiana* Rep 11

Tennessee Rep 11

Missouri* Rep 11

Arizona Rep 10

Maryland Dem 10

Wisconsin** Dem 10

Minnesota Dem 10

Colorado* Dem 9

Alabama Rep 9

Louisiana** Rep 9

South Carolina Rep 8

Kentucky Rep 8

Oregon** Dem 7

Oklahoma Rep 7

Connecticut Dem 7

Iowa** Dem 7

Mississippi** Rep 6

Arkansas Rep 6

Kansas Rep 6

Utah Rep 5

Nevada* Dem 5

New Mexico* Dem 5

West Virginia Rep 5

Nebraska Rep 4(Rep)/1(Dem)

Idaho Rep 4

Maine Dem 4

New Hampshire* Rep 4

Hawaii Dem 4

Rhode Island Dem 4

Montana** Rep 3

Deleware Dem 3

South Dakota Rep 3

Alaska* Dem 3

North Dakota Rep 3

Vermont Dem 3

District of Columbia Dem 3

Wyoming Rep 3

Obama 311 McCain 227 total 538

*denotes First Tier Battleground

**denotes Second Tier Battleground

Some comments on the Congressional races first off Florida, Michigan,Minnesota,Ohio,Nebraska and Illinois are extremely hard to determine at this point.

Michigan, and Florida because I have no idea if Obama can win Florida and bring up some of these congressional elections who need a nudge over the top and Michigan because I need Obama to perform their like a Democratic President is expected to (in my rankings I’m assuming he can and I honestly think he’s going to make Florida a real serious race).

Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Illinois are all about Obama coatails. I think Obama wins us the congressional district with Omaha in it because I see a huge victory their for Obama and its one electoral vote. And all the races in Minnesota and Illinois except MN-03 and Il-11 which I think we win either way, depend heavily on how big of numbers Obama racks up. All the Ohio districts except Mary Jo Killroy depend on Obama winning Ohio as well and if he can give us a more then 51-49 margin.(53-47 would do it for the all those congressmen and its what I’m assuming he wins by in the end)

Missouri I think is the race that goes down to the wire, I have McCain winning in an Obamaesque fashion in the state primary. But I think its enough to win those two seats.

Virginia Obama just needs to win and the two seats I have democrats winning Davis and Drake, go into the democratic column. (Davis will go dem either way)

Also if you notice I have Obama doing very well in the West. I think this is where Obama coattails will be strongest and will move us to victories in Wyoming, Idaho and Nevada. While he won’t win us Wyoming and Idaho on the Presidential level, he will drive democratic turnout enough and in combination with a bad incumbent in Idaho and a good candidate in Wyoming, I see two victories in these blood red states.

I have Alaska going hard hard democratic if you notice. I have us winning the Senate,house and electoral votes. I think Stevens gets indicted after he’s nominated and they are screwed because they won’t be able to get his name off the ballot. I think we can win all three if Obama goes to the state once after Stevens get indicted.

In regards to the Senatorial race fairly simple, 7 are pretty much assuming we win the top 4 gimme races and the two tossups in blue states (Oregon and Minnesota) I think Stevens goes down in Alaska and black turnout in Mississippi gives Musgrove a big win. North Carolina i have us wining based on some of the polling and I think Obama will drive the black vote up and could potentially win the state and the Senate Seat for the democrats.

Thoughts comments?

update:I changed the Missouri 9th race to TBA as their are two legit contenders for the democratic nod and denoted the contested primary in Alaska At Large.

Does anyone know who Mahoney’s opponent is, I couldn’t find it.

update two: changing races based on tonight’s results, just plugging in the primary winners